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Republicans Can’t Curb Their Enthusiasm; Time To Jeer The Bern, Or Fear The Bern?

This article is more than 4 years old.


Tempting though it is to mock Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for his ideals and mannerisms – a task made harder when one’s writing on a Sunday night and Curb Your Enthusiasm is about to air – maybe it’s time for Republicans to cool it with the dreams of a Trump cakewalk and down-ballot mayhem in November and think of the self-styled “Democratic socialist” in more formidable terms.

I say this not to be fashionably contrarian, but because I’ve seen Republicans fall into this smug-certainty trap twice in the last 30 years.

In 1992, some Republicans condescendingly viewed Bill Clinton as a morally-depraved lightweight governor of a state wallowing near the bottom of most misery indices. I can attest to this, as during that election I was an aide on the Bush-Quayle re-elect campaign. We were certain that America would come to see Clinton as an Ozarkian Elmer Gantry.

We were wrong.

In 2016, some Republicans condescendingly viewed Donald Trump as a morally-depraved snake-oil salesman – one part hustler, another part circus act, a third part unhinged – who’d lead the GOP to certain doom should he become the party’s presidential nominee.

They were wrong too.

Before I go any further, let’s clarify: Sanders is no Clinton; the 42nd president understood that the missing ingredient for Democrats, coming off of three presidential beatdowns in the 1980’s (losing 133 of 150 states and surrendering an average of 480 electoral votes in each election), was an embrace of centrist policies and a healthier respect for non-liberal views.

Nor is Sanders to be confused with Trump, as the 45th president embraces America’s heritage whereas one gets the impression that, 40 years at this time, Sanders was rooting for the guys skating in red during the “Miracle On Ice.”

Still, that doesn’t mean Republicans should take Sanders lightly. For this reason: he’s the only 2020 Democratic presidential contender with an avid following that will stick with him to the bitter end – just as Trump’s supporters haven’t left his side in the nearly five years since he first became a presidential candidate.

How do we know that Sanders supporters are loyal? Per this Politico story, the Vermont senator won a majority of Nevada caucusgoers who said they made up their minds six weeks before the actual vote – i.e., despite Mayor Pete’s early strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire and Amy Klobuchar’s and Elizabeth Warren’s breakout debate performances, they didn’t stray from Bernie.

Nor are they likely to stray when the race reaches the fast-approaching Super Tuesday, when core support in the likes of California and Texas should give Sanders a delegate turbo-boost – 1,357 delegates being at stake that day (415 in California and 228 in Texas).

By March’s end, after the rival Democrats will have subdivided the 2,448 delegates up for grabs that month (they do this proportionally, unlike the Republicans’ more decisive winner-take-all approach), Sanders should have a healthy lead over the field – not enough to win on the first ballot, perhaps, but a headache for fair-play Democrats looking to spin how the Vermont senator doesn’t deserve the nomination even if he has the most votes and delegates.

So the question isn’t how far Sanders can go.

Rather, it’s high how can he climb?

The answer, Sanders would have you believe, is higher than expected. Campaigning in Texas following his big Nevada win, the Vermont senator predicted he’d carry the Lone Star State in the general election (per this mid-February poll, he’s running neck-and-neck with Trump with Texas). Then again, how will he broaden the Democrats’ coalition and soothing independents’ concerns when he’s trotting out the likes of Marianne Williamson, who endorsed Sanders earlier on Sunday at an Austin rally (thus the saying in a more conservative part of the state: “don’t Austin my Dallas”).

As one watches Sanders prepare for his March delegate march, it’s wise to keep in mind the results of last week’s Gallup poll on the health of the Trump presidency. 

The headline points to Trump’s 49% approval rating – actually, a strong number for a president who at times has seen his approval fall into the mid-30’s.

The survey found that voters’ satisfaction with “the way things are going in the U.S.” is at its highest since 2005.

Gallup also asked Republicans if they approved of the job Trump’s doing. 93% said yes (80% of Republicans approve of “the way things are going in the U.S.”; that number in December was a less impressive 58%).

Gallup’s explanation for these findings:

“Trump’s approval rating may be higher because of the Senate’s acquitting him in the impeachment trial.”

“An increase in the percentage of Americans identifying as Republicans (32% in the past two surveys, up from 28% in the prior two surveys), along with a decline in the percentage identifying as independents (41%, down from 43%) and Democrats (27%, down from 28%).”

What this suggests to Democrats as the 2020 election unfolds:

First, given a contentious field and a process that could play out through mid-July and the national convention, good luck finding a presidential nominee who can draw anywhere near the 93% positive sentiment that Trump currently is drawing.

Second, barring a turn of events, that nominee will be hard-pressed to sell the public on a message of despair and inequity – per Gallup, 61% of Americans say they’re better off than they were at the beginning of the Trump presidency, a higher percentage than in any of the last four incumbent election years (in 2012, just 45% of Americans said they were better off under President Obama).

Third, if indeed the nominee is Sanders, Democrats will have to learn to take the good with the bad – the same as Republicans experienced with Trump in 2016.

And hope that Republican over-confidence plays into their hands, just as the Clinton campaign refused to buy into the notion that Trump shatter its vaunted “blue wall.”

Will Republicans be able to curb their enthusiasm over the prospect of making the fall election a referendum on capitalism versus socialism (try as Sanders might to modify and defang that word), and Trump’s love of country versus the Vermont senator’s syrupy nihilism?

For those conservatives, the race can’t start soon enough.

Just be careful what you wish for.     

I invite you to follow me on Twitter@hooverwhalen

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