Malaysia’s prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, resigns yet remains

WHEN MAHATHIR MOHAMAD woke up on February 24th, he was Malaysia’s prime minister. The governing coalition, Pakatan Harapan, controlled 129 of the 222 seats in the lower house of parliament. But political plotting soon upended everything. By the afternoon Dr Mahathir had resigned both as head of the government and as chairman of his party, Bersatu. By the evening, he was back in office, as interim prime minister.

It seems that Dr Mahathir quit because Bersatu’s 26 MPs, along with 11 renegades from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), the largest party in Pakatan Harapan, were intent on leaving the coalition. In the chaos of the day, some suspected that Dr Mahathir might have been behind the plot himself. But the 94-year-old’s colleagues were quick to acquit him of any involvement. “He played no part in it,” said Anwar Ibrahim, the head of PKR and long Dr Mahathir’s political frenemy. Lim Guan Eng, the finance minister and leader of the Democratic Action Party (DAP), another party in the coalition, declared that Dr Mahathir’s resignation was proof of his integrity—specifically, his unwillingness to work with the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO), the main opposition party, to form an alternative government.

Dr Mahathir did not always find UMNO so repulsive. Indeed, in his first spell as prime minister, between 1981 and 2003, he led the party. Horrified by corruption in a subsequent UMNO administration, however, he formed Bersatu ahead of an election in May 2018. Allied with PKR, the DAP and Amanah, an Islamic party, Dr Mahathir engineered the first change in control of Malaysia’s parliament. Pakatan Harapan defeated UMNO, which had been in charge for 61 years—ever since independence from Britain. It was an astonishing surprise.

Holding the inexperienced coalition together was always going to be difficult. Bickering was inevitable. Much of it has been related to the racial politics that plague the country. About 69% of Malaysia’s 32m people are bumiputra: Malays and other indigenous groups. A further 24% are ethnic Chinese and 7% Indian. The bumiputra have historically supported UMNO because it champions and defends policies to boost them economically. Bersatu does too. Much of the rest of the population resents the privileges accorded to Malays. The DAP represents Chinese interests; PKR embraces multiculturalism.

The cluster of parties in Pakatan Harapan thought that, despite their differences, they could rule effectively together. But tensions rose as Malay voters turned away from the government. Shortly after the coalition won power, 63% of Malays thought the country was “going in the right direction”, according to the Merdeka Center, a pollster. Within two years that share had plummeted to 24%. The coalition has lost five by-elections to opposition candidates as UMNO and its allies have claimed that Pakatan Harapan ignores Malay voters and their wants. Those defeats sowed the seeds of unrest within the ruling coalition.

Precisely who will win and lose when the dust settles is still far from clear. But Bersatu’s president, Muhyiddin Yassin, the minister of home affairs, seems to have miscalculated. He and other party leaders failed to convince Dr Mahathir to make Bersatu part of a new governing coalition with UMNO. PKR’s rebels appear wrongfooted too. One Pakatan Harapan politician even expects that most of the group will attempt to rejoin their former friends. Azmin Ali, their ringleader and the economic-affairs minister, once appeared to be Dr Mahathir’s preferred successor. His future now looks doubtful.

For Mr Anwar, too, the outcome may not be rosy. He joined forces with Dr Mahathir on the understanding that he would take over as prime minister within two years. Dr Mahathir later called that merely “a suggestion” and then declared he would not go until after a summit for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ends in November. The pair have had a fraught relationship for decades. In 1998 Dr Mahathir sacked Mr Anwar, his deputy at the time, and Mr Anwar was eventually imprisoned on a charge of sodomy (which is a crime in Malaysia). Yet relations appeared warm in recent days when senior leaders of Pakatan Harapan, including Mr Anwar, agreed to let Dr Mahathir choose a date for his departure. The creation of a new governing coalition may delay, or even prevent, Mr Anwar taking over.

Dr Mahathir could emerge victorious from the mess. His appointment as interim prime minister, pending the formation of a new government, may calm investors a little. Malaysia’s stockmarket dropped to depths unseen since 2011 amid the turmoil and the country’s central bank said it was “closely monitoring” conditions in financial markets.

Should Dr Mahathir wish to remain in the job, he would probably attract the necessary parliamentary support. He seems to be the only candidate capable of doing so—politicians on both sides of the emerging political divide have backed him publicly to stay—and enthusiasm among lawmakers for a snap election is low according to political wonks. Negotiations will continue over the coming days. Parties from the states of Sabah and Sarawak may tip the balance one way or another. Whatever coalition emerges, however, it must soon learn to govern without depending on a nonagenarian.