DAN HODGES: At last, there are reasons for optimism - so why are some people itching for Boris to fail?
It's been like playing a game of Whack-A-Mole,' the exhausted Government adviser admitted to me.
'One moment we're under attack over contact tracing. It's been like playing a game of Whack-A-Mole,' the exhausted Government adviser admitted to me. '
One moment we're under attack over contact tracing.
Last week was the blackest week of the coronavirus crisis, for both the country and the Government.
The death total rose above 4,000. Senior Ministers and officials, from the Prime Minister down, found themselves locked in their own personal battle with the virus.
And in their absence there were moments when it looked like the entire Covid-19 strategy was coming off the rails.
Hope for the future: 'What matters is where we are in four to five weeks' a Government minister has said in the coronavirus crisis
But away from the hysterical headlines and confused press conferences, a different mood is settling over those poring over modelling data and frantically signing off procurement forms – hope.
They are at war. And they believe they are finally seeing signs they're winning it. 'From the beginning we've been looking at this in strategic, not tactical terms,' a Minister told me.
'We've known we're not going to be judged by where we are in the middle of this, but by the end. We're not going to let ourselves be distracted by what's happening in the press over four to five days. What matters is where we are in four to five weeks or four to five months.'
They report three main reasons for optimism. There are some signs the number of new infections is starting to taper. This is being supported by anecdotal evidence, such as call volumes to the NHS's 111 hotline. Another is evidence that lockdown and social-distancing are – for the moment – being broadly observed. 'There are exceptions with people flouting the rules,' one senior aide says. 'But just look at Central London at 5pm. It's a ghost town. And that has a major impact on the spread of the virus.'
The third is an assessment from senior medical experts that the NHS will have sufficient capacity to manage demand when the outbreak hits the 'peak', currently predicted to be somewhere around Easter weekend. 'It's going to be squeaky bum time come next Sunday,' an aide conceded. 'But we think we'll be OK.'
Yet despite these small but steady advances against their deadly Covid-19 enemy, Ministers are resigned to a further barrage of criticism.
PARTLY this is because of the 14-21 day time-lag between a reduction in infections and a reduction in the mortality figures. They also acknowledge that errors around issues like the testing regime and distribution of personal protection equipment (PPE) will take time to be completely addressed.
But they are also falling victim to events outside their control. One is the emergence of an unholy alliance between opponents of the Government's strategy from opposite flanks of the political spectrum.
On the right are the Death Accountants. These are the naysayers who claim the Government lockdown will end up costing more lives than it saves. Allowing the virus to tear through the population, killing the weak and infirm in the process, would ultimately prove more merciful and cash conscious, they argue.
Their estimate of the cost of saving every person – £500,000 per life – is too high for the nation to bear.
Lost leader: Hodges hits out at Momentum and said they are 'no longer required to deliver punishment beatings' on his behalf
Meanwhile on the Left are the Momentum Morticians. No longer required to deliver punishment beatings on behalf of Labour's lost leader Jeremy Corbyn, they now fan out across social media, pouncing on the latest death statistics.
Every day at 2pm they congregate like vultures above the Department of Health Twitter feed. When the numbers rise sharply they swoop down, feasting on the toll, and demanding Boris and his Ministers be held account.
When the figures fail to meet their morbid daily benchmark, they flap about claiming the numbers have been manipulated, or invite people to count corpses in Germany or South Korea in comparison.
'We know this is going to go one of two ways,' a resigned Minister said. 'If we succeed in keeping the numbers down we'll be attacked for overreacting. And if we don't, we'll be attacked for not acting quickly enough.'
They also know that whatever the outcome, they will face a third criticism. 'We're going to start getting hammered soon for not having a clear strategy for ending lockdown,' they added. 'But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.'
Another major problem has been the way the creation of a black market in dodgy coronavirus statistics has destroyed Government attempts to brace the public for the true scale of this crisis.
Over the past fortnight, statisticians have been popping up, hawking their latest Covid-19 wares – the UK would peak at 250 deaths a day according to one analysis, over half the UK population was infected already and hospitalisations would be very low, claimed another.
These figures were a cruel fantasy. When Boris Johnson delivered his sombre Covid-19 warning – 'It is going to spread further and I must level with the British public: many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time' – he was telling the unvarnished truth.
NHS Director Stephen Powis's prediction – 'If we can keep deaths below 20,000, we will have done very well in this epidemic' – was not cynical expectation management, but a statement of hard clinical fact.
THE Death Accountants and Momentum Morticians and the Statistical Corner-Pushers can have their fun. But for the politicians and officials running the coronavirus war room, every decision they take has life-or- death consequences.
Which leads to one of their biggest issues of all. Ministers are well aware of the toll lockdown and the mounting death rates are having on the country. They want to give the British people some positive news. But they have come to the conclusion that at this stage in the virus cycle, optimism kills.
'The strategy is working,' explains a Minister. 'But the thing that terrifies us more than anything else is that people start to ease back and think we've got this thing beaten. We can beat it. But if people think they can relax, the whole thing can still spiral out of control.'
That's especially true over the coming seven to ten days. No 10 have seen behaviour modelling that shows public support for lockdown wanes over the weekend.
'People are still in a mindset where they think the weekend is when you catch up with people,' said one official. 'They still don't understand that by catching up with them, you might also be killing them.'
They are also worried at forecasts that show mild weather arriving just in time to coincide with the traditional Easter break. 'People have got to stay inside this Easter, or it could be their last Easter,' said a Minister starkly.
The Government think they're winning the coronavirus war. They may be wrong. In six or seven days' time we will have a clear picture. It could show Ministers and officials have lost control of the crisis. There may not be enough ICU capacity. Or PPE provision. Or testing kits. But those same Ministers and officials are serving in the Covid-19 trenches. And the majority of their critics are not. They have earned our support for at least one more week.
Cases rise: But Hodges said it's important to continue to be positive as there are reasons for optimism in the crisis
