In post-corona world, will India address its economic inequality?

National security has traditionally been defined in terms of power, military strength, and diplomatic influence. Last year, when a group of us were writing the national security strategy for the Congress, we decided to include “protecting our people” as one fundamental pillar of the national strategy. In some of the informal discussions after the strategy was published, questions were sometimes raised on whether we had tried to put too many human security issues under the umbrella of national security, and therefore, somewhat diluted the traditional focus on diplomacy, and internal and external threats.

It was our view that the biggest threats to India’s security could come from our weakness in protecting the citizens from future risks. Today, as India struggles to combat the threat of Covid-19, this link between the common man and security of the nation could not be more apparent. And even as we fight to contain the spread of the pandemic, we must also come to terms with some stark realities that have to be addressed in the future.

The first reality is the extreme economic inequality that exists in India. Two sets of images that are flashed on our TV screens bring home this truth. Famous personalities, particularly in the entertainment industry, have made a spectacle about the sacrifices they are making by performing the daily chores of cooking, cleaning and washing their clothes. “Stay at home like us,” they advise.

The other set of images is about thousands of migrant workers who mobbed railway stations and bus stands when the “janata curfew” was announced. As the country was locked down, they decided to walk hundreds of miles back to their villages. Their fear was not the coronavirus, but of dying due to hunger. The national and state governments have speedily stepped in to provide assistance to the migrant labour, but long-term policies will have to be devised to provide a social security safety net for this class of people.

According to World Bank data, 76% of India’s workforce lies in the ‘vulnerable employment’ category. Among all our neighbours in South Asia, only Nepal has worse figures. The Oxfam Inequality Index for 2018 placed India at the 147th position among 157 countries and 151st on the index for public spending for healthcare, education, and social protection.

Walter Scheidel, in his book The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty-First Century, writes that “Four different kinds of violent ruptures have flattened inequality: mass mobilization warfare, transformative revolution, state failure and lethal pandemics.” He further goes on to say, “There is no compelling empirical evidence to support the view that modern economic development, as such, narrows inequalities.”

Covid-19 is already having a crippling effect, but if it forces us to look at steps to alleviate the conditions of our poor, it could have a silver lining.

Another area that will need focus is technology disruption. Advances in medical technology may help us find a vaccine faster than what would have been possible in the past, communication monitoring enables us to track affected persons, and drones are being used for disinfecting areas. However, the pace at which technology breakthroughs are occurring is also disrupting traditional patterns of employment. An unintended consequence of this could be the further exacerbation of inequality.

India has a demographic dividend out to 2050, but this massive workforce needs to be adequately skilled to adopt new technologies. According to the United Nations Development Programme, the average number of years of education received in India by people ages 25 and older is 6.5. Education standards are improving, but those without the ability to fit into the technology-driven job market could find themselves only qualified for low-end service sectors.

India’s urban population, currently at 33%, could rise above 50% by 2050. These urban centres would become the drivers of India’s GDP growth. For this to happen, cities have to become more liveable, environment-friendly, resilient to climate change, and with adequate work opportunities for the youth. Unless there are social security schemes for the urban poor, we could see a repeat of the mass migration during the next catastrophe.

There is a lot of talk these days about the emergence of a new post-corona world. Most of this discussion revolves around geopolitics and the economy.

But what this crisis has also shown us in India is that our nation’s security ultimately lies in adopting a strategy that ensures protection of all our people from future risks. An essential element of this strategy is to address the existing inequality and deprivation among large sections of the population.

(The writer is former Army Commander, Northern Command)