CORONAVIRUS

EDITORIAL: Now is not the time to relax on COVID-19

Staff Writer
The Gadsden Times
Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey on Friday issued a stay at home order for Alabamians to combat the spread of the novel coronavirus COVID-19. [Brynn Anderson/The Associated Press/File]

There were several sobering moments last Tuesday in the White House’s daily COVID-19 briefing.

One of them came when Dr. Deborah Birx, the Response Coordinator for the White House Coronavirus Task Force, took to the podium to talk about recent projections for the coronavirus toll.

A number of national and international modelers combined to give estimates for the number of U.S. fatalities.

One part of a graph showed a mountainous curve that represented the number of deaths if the coronavirus were allowed to have an unmitigated spread.

Estimates were for 1.5 million to 2.2 million deaths in that scenario, an absolutely staggering number. (Consider that the entire state of Alabama only has about 4.9 million people.)

However, there was another, lower line on the graph that illustrates the idea of “flattening the curve” — taking measures to prevent the disease’s spread and keep the health care system from being overwhelmed.

Even with preventative measures, that smaller curve still represents an estimate of between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths.

(The coronavirus has often been compared to the flu, though the two are different. However, for reference, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that between Oct. 1, 2019, and March 21, 2020, there were between 24,000 and 62,000 flu deaths in the U.S.)

Those 100,000 to 240,000 figures are a kind of best-case scenario, if we all continue to follow social distancing guidelines and other measures.

Alabama is a very different place from some of the hardest-hit places like New York City, but just because things like lower population density are on our side, that doesn’t mean that we’re invulnerable to the outbreak. Gov. Kay Ivey finally acknowledged that on Friday by issuing a stay at home order, albeit with five full PDF pages of exceptions.

Still, perhaps it’s enough to prevent people from beginning to ignore social distancing guidelines.

We’ve been at this for a couple of weeks now; like with anything that becomes routine, the tendency is to become less vigilant and more lax in our habits.

Easter, the most important Christian holiday, is nearly here, and we’ll want to do what we’ve always done: gather to celebrate.

The president initially expressed a hope that we could begin to return to normal on Easter, but last Sunday, he announced that he was extending the federal social distancing guidelines until April 30.

He took an even more serious tone on Tuesday.

“I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead,” President Trump said. “We’re going to go through a very tough two weeks.”

Now is not the time to relax.

Eventually we will, but even if we’ve managed to start getting things under control, easing up on these guidelines too soon risks another spike in infections.

“But the reason why we feel so strongly about the necessity of the additional 30 days [of social distancing] is that now is the time whenever you’re having an effect, not to take your foot off the accelerator and on the brake, but to just press it down on the accelerator,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

How many times have you seen this scenario play out in a football game: one team has complete control throughout most of the game, building a lead that should be safe unless something goes wrong.

But instead of continuing what they did up until that point, they make changes.

The game plan shifts from playing to win to playing to not lose.

Suddenly, a nearly certain win is a much closer game than it should have been. Occasionally, it’s even a loss.

We can’t allow that to happen.

There’s already been one confirmed COVID-19 death in Etowah County, another is suspected and we have to continue to follow state and federal guidelines to avoid more.

Stay the course (and a safe distance from each other.)

Abide by Ivey’s order, which doesn’t shutter any stores that weren’t already closed. Stay home as much as you can and only go out when you need to, not because you want to or just to get out of the house.

Wash your hands, don’t touch your face and remember to be kind to one another.