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Global trade forecast to fall by up to a third amid Covid-19 pandemic – as it happened

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Scientists predict UK will be worst-hit country in Europe; Trump threatens to stop WHO funding; global cases pass 1.4 million. This blog is now closed.

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Wed 8 Apr 2020 19.36 EDTFirst published on Tue 7 Apr 2020 19.14 EDT
WHO holds briefing over coronavirus outbreak - watch in full

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Key events

Pence says when it comes to Easter and Passover celebrations this weekend, everyone should follow the usual guidelines. That will mean we can celebrate sooner, he says.

“We will be attending church in the living room of the vice president’s residence,” said Mike Pence. He’ll watch an Easter service from his home church in Indiana.

He encouraged all Americans to stay home. “Avoid gatherings of more than 10 people, avoid unnecessary travel,” he said.

Several churches around the country have flouted regulations and held services.

Pence is asked whether deaths are being “padded” – whether those who died after having underlying conditions made worse by coronavirus are listed as deaths from coronavirus, which “inflates” the number of deaths.

Dr. Deborah Birx says they’ve been hearing the opposite – that, she seems to imply – those who die because coronavirus made their underlying conditions worse (fatal) aren’t being listed as coronavirus-related deaths.

In other words, global death rates are worse than reported, not better.

Dr. Birx said that in some cases, there may be several reasons for death. “The number of Italians who succumbed had three or more comorbidities,” she said. The virus is considered the acute reason for death.

“Having an underlying condition and getting this virus is particularly damaging to those individuals” with underlying conditions, she says. “If you have asthma if you have renal disease... these put you at greater risk to have a worse outcome.”

Dr. Fauci says “you will always have conspiracy theories when you have challenging [public health crises] he says. They are just distractions.”

“Have somebody write a book about it later. Not now.”

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Pence was asked whether certain states, like Colorado, are receiving preferential treatment when it comes to ventilators because of their relationships with Trump.

He did not address the question.

The reporter repeated it.

Dr. Deborah Birx responds to say different states had different numbers of ventilators. Every state with more cases than Colorado – which she says did not have many ventilators, comparatively – has received ventilators, she says.

Again, the question has not really been addressed.

Vice President Mike Pence is speaking now.

“We will have roughly four separate clinical trials under way studying hydroxychloroquine... It’s important to remember that the FDA has approved what is called ‘off-label use’.”

Dr. Fauci says there are a lot of different ways that malaria drug is being looked at in medical trials. “In addition to that there’s what was just mentioned now that any physician in consultation with their patient can prescribe that drug.” He does not comment on whether the drug is safe or effective.

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Distancing is “the best tool,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said. “We know that this is something that is a strain on the American public,” he added, but it works to stop the spread of disease.

This press conference is happening as US cases pass the 400,000 mark. 14,529 people have died, according to the latest Johns Hopkins University figures, and a third of these deaths have been in New York.

For those of you who have not yet seen Wednesday’s New York Times front page:

New York Times — front page, 8 April 2020#NYC#BlackLivesMatter pic.twitter.com/dSYcxpFp4B

— Tejasvi Nagaraja (@TejNagaraja) April 8, 2020

Global cases have also passed the sombre milestone of 1.5 million, and deaths are close to 90,000 worldwide, with 87,984 confirmed, and many more suspected – some countries do not record deaths caused by certain complications or underling conditions aggravated by the virus as coronavirus-related deaths.

White House coronavirus task force member and the US’s foremost expert on infectious diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci is speaking now.

“What is the most striking thing that is so sobering to us is when we see deaths. We know now that the mitigation we are doing is having a positive effect. But you don’t see it until weeks later.”

“But don’t get complacent.”

The health disparities in the African American community puts them at risk much more so than the rest of the population, he says. This virus “preys” on those risks.

“To the young people to the older people in the community, protect yourself and please protect those who are susceptible.”

“We are not going to solve the problem of those health disparities this month or next month,” he says, but what we can do now is protect those people who are much more at risk. “We know that mitigation does work... keep your foot on the accelerator because that’s what’s going to get us through this.”

The White House’s coronavirus task force response coordinator Dr Deborah Birx is speaking now.

“Behind the scenes and working every day are the pediatricians fielding those calls from every concerned mother and grandmothers like myself.”

“To every pregnant woman don’t miss your appointments. If your OBGYN thinks you need to be there you should go.”

She :The number of people we’re losing every day is serious to every one of us and it could me so much worse but our front line care workers... this is how we can honour them by – as Dr Fauci says – put your foot on the gas and make sure to follow the guidelines.”

“This virus can infect everyone. This virus is very transmittable, but we need to protect those who need our protection the most.”

The White House press conference is live here:

Coronavirus: Members of the US task force brief reporters - watch live

Fact check: ventilators

My San Franciscan colleague Maanvi Singh has a fact check on that Trump claim regarding where things stand with ventilators.

It looks like we’re in great shape from the bed standpoint. It looks like we’re in great shape from the ventilators standpoint,” Trump said.

However, an article in the New England Journal of Medicine published on Wednesday 25 March categorically concluded that the US does not have enough ventilators to treat patients with Covid-19 in the coming months.

The authors, American public health experts, wrote: ‘There is a broad range of estimates of the number of ventilators we will need to care for US patients with Covid-19, from several hundred thousand to as many as a million. The estimates vary depending on the number, speed, and severity of infections, of course, but even the availability of testing affects the number of ventilators needed.... current estimates of the number of ventilators in the United States range from 60,000 to 160,000, depending on whether those that have only partial functionality are included. The national strategic reserve of ventilators is small and far from sufficient for the projected gap. No matter which estimate we use, there are not enough ventilators for patients with Covid-19 in the upcoming months.”

Trump has just been asked by a reporter: “When are we going to open up?” referring to the economy.

Trump says he doesn’t want to give a date. “I had a date. It was very aspirational – Easter.”

Trump said Easter might still be a good date after all, but for flattening the curve. He said the government is no longer receiving new requests for ventilators, and that he’d like to be able to lend ventilators to US allies – and non allies, he adds, because “we’re saving lives.”

Trump has now left the podium.

Pence says that the losses of life that are being seen today are in many cases people who contracted the virus before strict measures and other aspects of the response came into effect.

But in new cases there is great progress, says Pence. “We continue to evidence of stabilisation.”

“We may – may – be reaching the point where the coronavirus is levelling off,” says Pence.

Hello, Helen Sullivan with you now. I’ll be sticking with Trump’s press conference for the time being – after all, he has just said: “I’m not a doctor, I think you’ve figured that out.”

He also says “I don’t know why President Obama hasn’t supported Joe Biden. There’s something wrong there.... It does amaze me that President Obama hasn’t supported sleepy Joe.”

At least some things haven’t changed.

The World Health Organization “hasn’t accomplished what it was intended to deliver” Pompeo has said, doubling down the president’s criticisms.

Trump has repeatedly sought to shift blame for the crisis on the WHO, alleging that it responded too late. On the same day the WHO raised the global risk from the virus to its highest level, the US president called it a “hoax”.

Maanvi Singh

The state department is working to repatriate Americans abroad, according to the secretary of state Mike Pompeo.

“We still have several thousand” US citizens abroad, in some cases in remote areas. Efforts to bring them home are ongoing, and “we will keep it up” Pompeo said.

Asked whether he thinks China has withheld information and whether the US will act on the president’s suspicion China has not been accurately reporting coronavirus data, Pompeo said, “This is not the time for retribution, but it is still the time for clarity and transparency.”

Pompeo avoided calling the coronavirus the “China virus” or “Wuhan virus” as he as in the past.

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Maanvi Singh

In Washington, the US president Donald Trump is giving his daily briefing. He has wished the UK’s prime minister Boris Johnson well.

We send our regards to Boris, his friends, his family. Hopefully he’s going to be ok.

On Tuesday, Trump detailed how he plans to help Johnson, by alerting his doctors in London to “some very good potential cures” that US companies are exploring.

UK police chiefs want the government to consider toughening coronavirus lockdown restrictions, the Guardian has learned, as they head into the Easter bank holiday weekend with concerns that a growing minority will flout the rules.

Vikram Dodd, Gregory Robinson and Jessica Murray write that more stringent restrictions to prevent people driving long distances are among options supported by at least five chief constables who want enforcement action to be bolstered by clearer and tougher government curbs. Other options include using legislation to enforce the order to limit exercise to once a day.

Barry Glendenning
Barry Glendenning

Two of Britain’s biggest Olympic sports have become the latest to announce plans to furlough staff because of the pandemic.

British Cycling is to avail of the government’s job retention scheme to cover 80% of the wages of 90 staff – approximately one third of its workforce – in April and May as it faces a drop in income of around £4m. UK Athletics also plans to furlough up to 12 of its head office staff as it also braces itself for a significant loss of revenue.

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