Super cyclone Amphan may weaken from this afternoon

Super cyclone Amphan (pronounced as Um-Pun) has picked up speed and started moving to North-North-East, throwing hints that it would also weaken around in the process. India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects it to wind down back as an extremely severe cyclone by this afternoon/evening.

The IMD located the super cyclone this (Tuesday) over West-Central Bay of Bengal, about 520 km nearly to the South of Paradip (Odisha); 670 km to the South-South-West of Digha (West Bengal;) and 800 km South-South-West of Khepupara (Bangladesh).

Super cyclonic winds

Gale winds with speeds reaching 225-235 km/hr gusting to 255 km/hr (super cyclonic) are prevailing over the West-Central Bay of Bengal. They may extend to northern parts of the Central Bay and adjoining North Bay today. Gale winds with speeds reaching 180-190 gusting to 210 km/hr will prevail over the North Bay from this afternoon, gradually decrease becoming 165-175 km/hr and gusting to 195 km/hr by tomorrow afternoon.

The sea condition is phenomenal (wave heights of 46 ft) and is likely to continue in that manner into tonight over the southern parts of the West-Central Bay. It will become phenomenal over the northern parts of the Central Bay and adjoining North Bay today and over the North Bay tomorrow.

Warning to fishermen

Fishermen are advised not to venture into the West-Central and adjoining central parts of the South Bay until tomorrow (Wednesday) and so too into the Central Bay and the North Bay. Also, they should not venture into the North Bay along and off the North Odisha, West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh coasts till tomorrow. Storm Surge of about 13-16 ft above the Astronomical Tide may inundate low lying areas of the South and North 24 Parganas during the time landfall. Similarly, the low lying areas of East Medinipur in West Bengal would have to contend with storm surges of 10-13 ft.

The powerful storm would continue to move to the North-North-Eastwards and weaken another round as a very severe cyclone ahead of landfall. The weakening would come about as it encounter cooler and shallow water so of the coast and increasing vertical wind shear (change in wind direction with height). It would cross the West Bengal- Bangladesh coasts between Digha (West Bengal) and Hatiya Islands (Bangladesh) close to the Sundarbans tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon/evening with maximum sustained wind speeds of 155-165 km/hr gusting to 180 km/hr.

Heat wave over land

The powerful cyclone is draining the entire subcontinent and the nearby seas of moisture to such a level that its weakening phase and the landfall might leave the landscape to the disposal of hotter air blowing in with a vengeance from North-West India. This could shoot up temperatures into the mid 40 degrees Celsius level and spark the much-delayed heat waves crucial from the viewpoint of monsoon onset. The IMD has said that rains may arrive delayed by four days on June 5 over Kerala.

Meanwhile, squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/r may prevail along and off the North Odisha coast from this afternoon, and along and off the West Bengal coast from the night. They may grow to gale winds with speeds reaching 75-85 km/hr gusting to 95 km/hr from Wednesday morning along and off the Jagatsinghpur, Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Balasore and Mayurbhanj districts of North Odisha and the East and West Medinipur, South and North 24 Parganas, Howrah, Hoogli, Kolkata districts of West Bengal.

Wind speeds trends

Wind speeds will gradually increase thereafter becoming 100-110 km/hr gusting to 125 km/hr along and off the above-mentioned districts of North Odisha. Gale winds with speeds reaching 155-165 km/hr gusting to 180 km/hr may blow along and off the East Medinipur and North and South 24 Parganas districts and 110-120 km/hr gusting to 130 km/hr over Kolkata, Hoogli, Howrah, and West Medinipur districts of West Bengal during the time of landfall (tomorrow afternoon to night). Squally winds with speeds reaching 55-65 km/hr gusting to 75 km/hr may prevail over Puri, Khordha, Cuttack, Jajpur districts of Odisha tomorrow (Wednesday).

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