For India to emerge from the corona crisis, there is need for greater dialogue in a federal setup

By Sanjay Kumar and Chandrachur Singh

Evidence suggests that the 2014 and 2019 general elections witnessed a significant shift amongst OBC voters, mainly the lower OBC, and Dalit voters in favour of BJP, contributing to its massive victory during the two Lok Sabha elections. While BJP received massive support amongst the upper castes, its traditional supporters, what made a huge difference was the shift amongst the OBC and Dalits towards BJP.

In 2014 LS elections, 31% OBC voted for BJP which increased to 36% in 2019. In this shift amongst OBC towards BJP, urban lower and poor income class migrants have been instrumental as they seemed to be convinced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s developmental model for prospects of better livelihoods. Poor urban migrants, a majority of whom belong to OBC groups and continue to have roots in their respective villages, have been instrumental in endorsing aspirational/ developmental appeals of BJP, allowing it to override caste barriers by swinging rural OBC votes in their favour.

Now when a large number of migrants have returned to their native villages, and some are still struggling to be back, their unhappiness with BJP is bound to have impact on both urban and rural politics. This unhappiness might compel them to rethink if they would still like to vote for BJP. This may open up opportunities for regional parties to reach out to these newly returned migrants to do all that they could, to ease their sufferings and bring them back in their fold.

Since Congress is still lying low – unlikely to revive before states like Bihar this year and West Bengal, Assam, Tamil Nadu and Kerala next year go to the polls – these migrants who have returned might shift their vote towards regional parties in these states. If sizeable numbers of them decide to shift their vote away from BJP, it would certainly dent BJP’s support base, which by default would strengthen the political base of regional parties.

Regional parties may not be able to capture power in all these states (say in Bihar or Assam), but their sizeable presence in the state assemblies might compel the ruling party to build better ties and have more consultations with these regional parties. This is why, BJP under Modi must walk that extra mile to resolve the looming migrant labour crisis.

What a federal country like India needs is consultative thinking not only for its fight against corona epidemic, but for any policy which has implications for its federating units. Most states supported Modi’s extension of lockdown till May 3 not only because it was the need of the hour, but also because of a healthy consultation which the PM had with all the chief ministers. However, as things wore on, some states started erecting fences and digging trenches on borders that they share with other neighbouring states, some others have been reluctant in accepting migrant labourers back in their fold.

This is where the need of a consultative mechanism of decision making becomes imperative. Had the first lockdown been made in adequate consultations with CMs, it would have surely allowed greater ease in foreseeing and possibly addressing the issues of the poor urban migrant labourers. It is also certain that no CM would have objected to that decision.

Unfortunately, however, the first lockdown came as a surprise to many states, a few of whom had already been sulking for not being kept in the loop on critically important federal issues – both political and financial. India at present is fortunate in having an immensely strong and popular leader as its PM. But the need of the hour is to galvanise the political discourse of India for greater autonomy for states and local bodies.

Activating federal bodies like the Inter State Council to establish a dedicated Covid-19 monitoring and coordination mechanism could be a plausible way out of the current chaos as India tries to emerge from its lockdown. Most importantly however, a new discourse must be started now when the nation is facing an unprecedented economic crisis.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, Chandrachur Singh teaches political science at Hindu College