After lockdown, carpocalypse? Why Delhi may see a spike in congestion, pollution

NEW DELHI: Is Delhi staring at a carpocalypse? As the city gradually moves towards normalcy, experts predict massive road congestion and longer commuting time with the fear of infection and drastically reduced capacity of public transport pushing more people towards personal vehicles.
“Covid-19 is going to stay here for some time and so will the fear because personal safety is of prime importance.People will tend to prefer private transport,” says Ashok Bhattacharjee, urban planner and former director of Unified Traffic and Transportation Infrastructure (Planning & Engineering) Centre (UTTIPEC). He believes reduction in capacity of public transport, due to social distancing, will push more people towards personal vehicles. More cars and two-wheelers will take up space on roads, leading to more congestion and pollution.

Delhi Metro, the capital’s lifeline, used to ferry about 30 lakh passengers a day before it stopped operations. “Instead of 1,800-2,000 passengers, a Metro train will now carry 350 to 400 passengers to ensure social distancing,” points out S Velmurugan, senior principal scientist, traffic engineering and safety division, Central Road Research Institute (CRRI).
Delhi Transport Corporation (DMRC) and the Cluster scheme, with a combined fleet of 6,348 buses, used to ferry 42 lakh passengers a day before the lockdown. While the buses are back on the road, only 20 passengers are being allowed at a time. “We will need around 18,000 buses now in Delhi. Many people are working from home, all industries are not open and at least five lakh people have left Delhi. That is why we are not facing any congestion right now but this is going to become a real problem soon,” he warns.
“There are two type of commuters - choice users and captive users. Those with a choice will now opt for a car or two-wheeler,” says PK Sarkar, former head of Transport Planning at School of Planning and Architecture. “The captive user has no option, but where are the buses? We need 20,000 buses in Delhi now. These users will be forced to buy two-wheelers or cheaper options like mopeds, leading to more congestion and the city will collapse,” he says.
“Private transport will increase and so would usage of auto rickshaws and cabs, apart from cycling trips,” Velmurugan said. “This is going to be a menace not only in Delhi but in all metropolitan cities.”
Bhattacharjee says those who can’t afford personal vehicles will suffer the most. “Those who can’t afford private or hired modes and prefer to use cycle in absence of public transport would be deprived of the same due to unsafe road traffic conditions. This is of immediate concern and the government is not ready to deal with that,” he remarks.
“Bicycle sales have gone up dramatically around the world and protective lanes are being provided for cyclists,” says Anumita Roychowdhury, executive director, research and advocacy, Centre for Science and Environment. She says the present crisis can set the foundation for an improved walking and cycling infrastructure. Sarkar points out that Delhiites tend to avoid cycling for distances beyond 5-6 km and the city needs a master plan for a cycling infrastructure.
Both Bhattacharjee and Velmurugan believe that given the limited number of buses, dynamic route rationalisation is needed. “I notice DTC buses on routes like 460 and 534 arriving at a frequency of five to 15 minutes while other routes don’t have the same frequency. This is an improper and ridiculous way of scheduling,” he says.
All experts are unanimous in saying that in the present scenario, as many people should work from home as possible. “We need to restrict travel requirement and have a combination of work-from- home and staggered office timings. We need to reduce the load on the current system since otherwise there will be more personal vehicles on roads,” says Roychowdhury.
“The concept of office has to disappear and people have to work from home,” suggests former joint commissioner of police Maxwell Pereira. “The public transport in Delhi was never enough and that’s why those who could afford went for personal vehicles and others took to cycling. A further increase in number of private transport is a valid concern at the moment,” he says.
“Increased congestion would mean that mass transport like buses, which are needed to move the majority, will become slower as cars and two-wheelers, which carry less people will occupy more space on roads,” says Roychowdhury. “The government has to intervene right now. Bengaluru is doing bus priority lanes and Delhi should look into that to maximize utilisation.”
“People who cannot afford personal mobility will use shared transport. Period,” says Amit Bhatt, director of integrated transport, WRI India. “The cities will come to a grinding halt if choice users and people with affordability shift to private transportation,” he says.
Both Bhatt and Roychowdhury say it is important to restore trust and confidence in shared mobility, be it buses, Metro or auto rickshaws. Bhatt says the government could introduce a Covid-19 safety labelling for transport services. “People need to ask themselves that if they can go to their office or market, what’s wrong with taking public transport if the social distancing norms are being met?” she asks.