The Tribune’s Brad Biggs answers your Chicago Bears questions weekly.
There was a time when the Bears would race to be the first team to sign all of their draft picks. Now, under GM Ryan Pace, the policy seems to be to do the opposite and wait until just before training camp begins. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach? — Tom S., Chicago
I would not say the Bears have waited until training camp to sign their draft picks, but they haven’t signed them within a week or two of the draft anymore. Everything changed when the NFL slotted the pay for draft picks. The Roquan Smith situation in 2018 was an anomaly based on where he was taken, eighth overall, and some of the technical language in contracts. I don’t foresee any issues getting their draft picks under contract this season. Keep in mind, the only players permitted to set foot in Halas Hall since mid-March have been those rehabilitating from surgeries or injuries. These draft picks have not even been to the facility.
I like to read NFL message boards to gain perspective and insight from the national fan base. On the Bears, one thing I consistently read is how they’ll never improve because of their salary-cap situation, with most pointing to the Khalil Mack contract. The rationale behind that trade and contract was that the Bears could gamble on a generational talent while Mitch Trubisky and other key contributors were still on rookie contracts. That no longer applies to the quarterbacks room, and guys like Eddie Jackson (already extended), Cody Whitehair (already extended), Tarik Cohen and the money owed to Nick Foles surpass the rookie scale, so how might that change the roster-building strategy going forward? Might we see front-end talent traded away or released? I think Prince Amukamara and Nick Kwiatkoski were preludes to a lot of roster churn. — Gregory M.
I understand where you are coming from, and there’s no question the Bears will face some challenges moving forward. Over The Cap looked at the projected 2021 salary-cap status for all 32 teams and ranked the Bears 27th in terms of flexibility. That’s going to be an issue, but it’s not debilitating. Teams are very skilled at maneuvering around the cap these days. The Saints have been pressed up against the cap almost annually, going back to the years before the Bears hired away Ryan Pace, and they’ve been able to remain competitive and often very good. The best way to combat cap problems is to infuse the roster with quality young talent, and that’s where the Bears have a challenge after not having a first-round pick in the 2019 and 2020 drafts. That’s why tight end Cole Kmet and cornerback Jaylon Johnson need to emerge as capable starters quickly. And that’s why the 2021 draft, in which the Bears will have a first-round pick again, will be crucial. I wouldn’t worry about the Bears losing front-end talent. Teams always find the means to keep their best players. Depth can be hurt a little bit, but that’s the modern NFL. The teams with an elite quarterback and the teams that consistently produce via the draft are the ones that compete regularly.
If Nick Foles plays a full season and leads a top-10 offense and opts out, what do you think the Bears would do? Could they really let someone who presumably had the best season by far as a QB for the franchise just walk? Would they draft someone with their first-round pick? — @daguyincognito
For starters, let’s acknowledge that if this happens, it would be a very good problem for the Bears to have. If Foles is able to void his contract after this season — I detailed some of the bells and whistles in his reworked contract in April — it would mean a lot of things went very well. He has to be on the field for at least half of the offensive snaps in the regular season and postseason, and the Bears have to reach the NFC championship game. That means advancing at least two rounds beyond where they exited after the 2018 season. In that scenario, I imagine Foles would be motivated to re-sign with the Bears and they would be motivated to retain him. Opting out of the contract would simply be a negotiating tool for Foles, and the Bears would likely follow with one of their own negotiating tools: the franchise tag. Again, these would be very good problems for Ryan Pace to handle in February 2021.
My belief is that last year’s team was hit hard in two ways. First, when Akiem Hicks went down, that took a lot of air out of the defense and no one stepped up to really fill the void. Good defense, but Khalil Mack cannot do everything (and you showed that in one of your columns). Second, the interior offensive line missed a healthy Kyle Long. It couldn’t open holes and downfield running, whether David Montgomery is an answer or not, was poor (again, as you pointed out previously). I also think Matt Nagy made a mistake not playing regulars more in the preseason to get a rhythm going. It was like the first two games of the regular season were more preseason than regular season. Though regardless of that, this team, had they actually played better, should have been at least a 10-6 or 11-5 team. They should have beat arguably Green Bay, Oakland and the Chargers early in the season. I also think Mitch Trubisky took more upon himself and pressed at times (and I wonder if he truly trusted his receivers but for Allen Robinson). And I believe Nagy does need to let him loose and make plays like the year before. I wish this year they got one more impact lineman in case Hicks goes down again. Robert Quinn is a question mark, extremely talented and we can only believe he can emulate Julius Peppers. I know you think Trubisky is not an answer, but everyone forgets about Jared Goff, yet he turned out OK after that first year. And drafting a quarterback in any round is a gamble — Robert Griffin, Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, Josh Rosen, etc. Surprisingly, Tom Brady, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott and Russell Wilson were likely meant to be backups. I don’t fault Ryan Pace for what he did, and Trubisky could still surprise, especially if his supporting cast steps up. — Anthony K.
You’re all over the map here. You started with two reasons the Bears stubbed their toe in 2019 and then you added a long list. You’re correct that there are many reasons the team had unfulfilled expectations a year ago, when it regressed by four games in the win column. It’s not a simple two- or three-step process to turning this thing around, and that’s why you have seen the Bears make a variety of moves in many areas this offseason, all with the same goal in mind. The loss of Hicks during the middle of the season was a major blow, no question. But the statistical impact probably isn’t as great as you might imagine. Here’s where the defense ranked after Hicks was injured in the Week 5 game in London against the Raiders and when he returned for one game in Week 15 against the Packers:
Category: Week 6 ranking, Week 15 ranking
Total defense: 5th, 10th
Run defense: 6th, 7th
Pass defense: 11th, 13th
Yards per play: 5th, 7th
Yards per rush: 3rd, 3rd
Net yards per pass: 7th, 6th
Sacks per pass play: 9th, 25th
Third down: 7th, 7th
Points per game: 2nd, 4th
Takeaways: T-4th, T-17th
The biggest drop-off was in pass-rush production as Hicks can generate a push in the middle and occupy blockers to free other defenders to make plays. But you’re looking at a small sample size through five games entering Week 6. All in all, there wasn’t a dramatic drop in most key categories. I hear what you’re saying about the loss of Long, but the problem with that logic is it’s not like the offense was humming along before he got hurt. An offense never should crumble because it lost a guard to injury. One interior lineman just isn’t that impactful to scoring and moving the ball up and down the field, which the Bears struggled to do. Yes, the Bears could have had a significantly better record with a different result in some of the close losses, but you can point to that for just about every team in the league every year. The Bears need to be better offensively to be more competitive and take pressure off their defense, which cannot be expected to hold the opponent under 17 points every week. It’s a good goal — one every defense should have — but it’s not realistic or sustainable if the offense isn’t doing its part.
What position group do you think is flying under the radar for the Bears? — @johnphi12175069
I don’t know that the Bears have a unit that will catch everyone off guard. Certainly they hope to be significantly better at quarterback, but everyone will be paying full attention to that once they get on the field. So would development there sneak up on anyone? I believe the Bears have a great deal of faith in running back David Montgomery, who was underwhelming as a rookie after they traded up to make him their top pick in the third round in 2019. They have not added a veteran at that position, and it’s plainly evident that is Montgomery’s job and he will carry the load. He can be better than a year ago — and should be better — and the offense sure as heck needs to be better around him. So if you’re looking for someone who might take a nice jump from last season to this year, maybe he is your guy.
Who do you think will be the Week 1 starter? — @mjb918
I’m going to assume you are inquiring about quarterback. Provided I am right, you must be new around here because I’ve pretty clearly stated my opinion that Nick Foles will emerge as the winner of the open competition. Foles and Mitch Trubisky are scheduled to speak to media Thursday. It will be the first time Trubisky has spoken publicly since the end of last season, and it will be interesting to get his perspective on the situation.
How should we expect Tarik Cohen to be used going forward? Seems like most of his designed plays were designed to fail in the first place. — @best4business15
The Bears failed to put Cohen consistently in a position where he could succeed last season, and there are a handful of reasons for that. One of the biggest is that defenses were able to adjust and handle him a little differently as a receiver. Without a tight end threat, opponents were able to cover him more consistently with a defensive back, and that negated some of Cohen’s ability in the open field. He’s a matchup nightmare for most linebackers, but a slot cornerback is better equipped to challenge a lot of the stuff the Bears like to do with Cohen. As I wrote earlier this week, the team needs a detailed plan for how it will use Cohen because he’s too valuable not to be used effectively the way he was as a rookie and in 2018. This is a big season for him entering a contract year.
Can you pick one surprise starter on offense and one for defense in Week 1? — @dabayrz
The Bears haven’t made a lot of changes to the top of the depth chart. Most of them are in plain view. They overhauled the personnel at tight end. They cut wide receiver Taylor Gabriel, opening competition for his snaps. There could be a new right guard. On defense, they swapped out Leonard Floyd for Robert Quinn, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix for Tashaun Gipson and drafted Jaylon Johnson to take Prince Amukamara’s spot. All of that is pretty straightforward, and none of it will catch any casual observers off guard. There is a quarterback competition, and after that plays out, you could be looking at a new starter there. Absent injuries that create a need for change, I don’t see any real surprises playing out here. Who knows, maybe something will wind up surprising us by September.
Do all of the wide receiver acquisitions this offseason mean it is likely that Javon Wims will be cut? — @nickpalazzolo5
The Bears subtracted Taylor Gabriel and added free agent Ted Ginn Jr. and fifth-round draft pick Darnell Mooney. They have to be hoping to get much more from Riley Ridley, last year’s fourth-round pick. Other than that, I don’t see a lot in the way of additions that can be counted on as potential frontline players, at least not until we see anyone on the field. They need to be better collectively around Allen Robinson, and Wims will be challenged for a roster spot for sure. He’s an outside receiver who doesn’t have a dominant trait in terms of speed or elusiveness. If he performs well, he will deserve to stay, but he doesn’t add a lot on special teams and could be caught in a numbers crunch.
Which player or position group is most hurt by the lack of on-field work this offseason? — @reggsingleton
Rookies are the ones who will face the greatest challenges as they’ll have to start from scratch in training camp instead of getting the basics down during the offseason program. That will make it particularly challenging for undrafted rookies to impress. Those are players who can benefit from extra reps during the offseason program, when coaches wisely limit veterans to keep them fresh. No one has a chance to catch the eye of position coaches and personnel evaluators when they’re not on the field. As far as a group, the quarterbacks need to be on the field, and you’d like the offensive line to have every chance it can to get going, even if it’s just basic work in shells without full pads at this time of year.
A lot was made a few months ago about how many tight ends are on the roster. Currently they are carrying nine. When the dust settles, how many will the Bears be carrying in Week 1 against the Lions? — Jeff W., West Des Moines, Iowa
Good question. I don’t believe the Bears will carry fewer than four tight ends, and it’s possible, although maybe not likely, there is a fifth. If the Bears decide to roll with four tight ends in Week 1, I would not be surprised if two more were on the practice squad. Yes, they added a second-round draft pick in Cole Kmet, who is viewed as having the potential for a long and productive career, but Jimmy Graham is a short-term option and they still need to develop the depth chart. Barring injury, Kmet, Graham and Demetrius Harris, who played in the system in Kansas City, figure to be locks to make the 53-man roster. After that, special teams becomes a consideration. Ben Braunecker has played a primary role in that area the last two seasons. J.P. Holtz has versatility as a blocker and can line up in the backfield as a fullback. He might make it for his blocking ability. Jesper Horsted impressed at times on the practice field last season and made a nifty touchdown catch in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day. The Bears hired a new tight ends coach, Clancy Barone, who will have ample input in the decision process and will need to see his guys on the field before that process takes place.
