Covid-19 pandemic: No additional beds required in Delhi, Mumbai and West Bengal

New Delhi: The Covid-19 pandemic situation in India is “under control”, claims a study by the Indian Institute Management (IIM), Rohtak.
According to the study led by IIM-Rohtak Director Dheeraj Sharma, the average rate of new active cases (0.04) in India is lower than the average rate of recoveries (0.07).

ET has accessed the study, which was conducted with an objective to calculate and analyse the rate of new active cases and recoveries in the country and its 18 most-affected states.

The study says that except in a few instances (May 24, June 2, June 4) the “rate of recoveries is higher than the rate of new active cases in India”.

A critical analysis of the data shows that “forecasted recoveries are higher that new active cases (from June 27 onwards) and the Covid-19 pandemic is under control in India,” it says.

The actual number of active cases of Covid-19 positive patients and recoveries were collected from the national portal of the government.

According to the study, the “quantitative analysis shows that in Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar, the actual recovery rate is higher than the new active case rate.”

It says that the forecasted recoveries are higher than forecasted active cases in Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar.

However, in Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala and Uttarakhand, the actual new active case rate is higher than the recovery rate, it says. Separately, in Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala and Uttarakhand, the forecasted active cases are higher than forecasted recoveries, it adds.

The study recommends that the government should keep additional beds ready in Andhra Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Kerala and Uttarakhand.

“The condition of Kerala and Uttarakhand seems to be unstable, as both actual and forecasted active cases are higher than actual and forecasted recoveries,” it says.

Currently, “the forecasted recoveries in Haryana and Karnataka are higher than the forecasted cases, however the actual rate of active cases of Corona positive patients in Haryana, and Karnataka is higher than the rate of recoveries”, the study reads.

The study says there is no need for extra beds in hospitals of Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar “as the forecasted value of recoveries is much higher than the new active cases (June 27 onwards)”.

The study undertook the task of forecasting the new active cases and recoveries in India and to estimate the required number of beds in hospitals.

“For forecasting the number of new active cases in India and critical states, exponential smoothing with seasonality is used. The forecasting of the number of recoveries is carried out using regression method”, it says.