Containing Dragon’s growing belligerence in South China Sea: ASEAN suggests implementation of UNCLOS

China’s belligerence is growing unabated. Last year, Haiyang Dizhi 8 the Chinese giant survey ship was involved in a standoff with the Vietnamese drilling ship Hakuryu 5, in Vietnam’s Exclusive Economic Zone near the Fiery Reef. In April this year, this Chinese ship reached off the Malaysian coast to closely shadow a Malaysian oil exploration vessel West Capella. In response, the United States ordered the USS America and two guided-missile warships into disputed waters in the region, where they were soon joined in exercises by an Australian warship. Earlier on the 3 rd April Chinese sunk a Vietnamese boat in the Paracels. Two Vietnamese fishing boats attempted to rescue the eight fishermen, but they were also detained with their ships. In February, a Chinese ship had turned a weapon control radar against a Philippines warship.

Not only above activities, China had been threatening other littoral nations over the oil exploration. Fishing regulations have been imposed covering the EEZs of other nations since 1 st May. A Chinese ship rammed a Vietnamese fishing boat in June operating in the Paracel Islands in the Vietnamese EEZ.

Beijing has taken political steps to strengthen its claims in the SCS. China’s State Council has announced two new municipal districts for the governance of the Paracel and Spratly island groups, earlier managed by the local administration of Sansha in Hainan Province. These two sub-authorities will now function as separate administrative units with jurisdiction over their respective island chains.

There are reports that China would impose Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in SCS as well. ADIZ can be used to deny the aircraft of foreign countries. This would not be legal but China perceives that it has sovereignty over the entire SCS.

China’s growing aggressiveness is propelled by a number of factors. First, China’s objective is to become unparalleled hegemon in the world order. China has ambition to become sole global super power by the 2049. At present it perceives that there are only two powers-US and China. It also perceives that the countries in the SCS, which are opposing China as also Japan and India are being instigated by US.

Second, Chinese aggressive nationalism and irredentism have become the key features of China’s foreign policy and aggrandisement. The perception that China has to rectify humiliation of the past centuries is taking the central place in the formulation of China’s approach. China projects that the areas in its periphery belong to it, which were lost to the forces of colonialism and imperialism and they must be retrieved. This is the ‘Chinese dream’. To strengthen its claims in SCS, it has occupied several features and created artificial islands, militarised them, regularly patrolling them and projecting its military might to deter its neighbours.

Third, China’s emergence as an economic power. China experienced rapid economic growth to become the world’s second largest economy while modernizing its industrial base and moving up the global value chain. However, much of this growth has been achieved in significant part through aggressive acts, policies, and practices that fall outside of global norms and rules. This approach of economic aggression comprised four elements- aggressive protection of China’s market from imports and competition; expansion of China’s share in the global market; securing and controlling core natural resources globally using a predatory debt trap model of economic development and financing; and taking firm steps to dominate industrial manufacturing of the goods which are in high demand like production of autos, ships, fridges, colour TVs etc. China is obtaining advanced technology through the state sponsored IP theft that includes physical theft, cyber-enabled espionage and theft, evasion of U.S. export control laws, and counterfeiting and piracy, coercive and intrusive regulatory gambits to force technology transfer from foreign companies, typically in exchange for limited access to the Chinese market; and economic coercion through export restraints on critical raw materials and monopsony purchasing power. However, of late Chinese economy is in doldrums because of its trade war with US and international reaction on China’s role in suppressing information on COVID-19.

Fourth, China has significantly enhanced its military power. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), while the U.S. defence expenditure declined by 15 percent and Japan’s increased by only 2 percent between 2009 and 2019, China’s defence spending increased by 85 percent in the same period. The pace and scope of China’s sustained military investments have allowed China to pursue capabilities that are potentially destabilizing to regional military balances, increase the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation and may contribute to regional tensions and anxieties. It has restructured its forces. Chinese naval modernisation is aimed at developing its anti-Access capabilities (meant for US) and also for deterring its neighbours from opposing China.

China reorganised its maritime units to form Coast Guards to function as ‘the iron fist’. China has adopted a carefully crafted strategy. It is taking in small steps but making significant advance strategically without fighting a battle. The Chinese strategy consist of three steps- first subtly alter the status quo, second change the geographical facts on the ground and third lay the claim over the altered reality. Simultaneously it indulges in diplomatic talks to keep other disputants hopeful that the dispute would be resolved through negotiations. The intent is to prolong the discussion on the proposed Code of Conduct. Alongside, Beijing’s propaganda machinery is working overtime blaming other claimants and the US for the tension as also projecting its historic claims in the periphery.

There is a strong reaction from the US. United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on 25 th June said that the country was reviewing the deployment of its forces across the world so that it was prepared to counter the threat posed by China to countries like India, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India and Australia have raised the level of bilateral relationship. With increasing opposition of Xi internally on multiple fronts, there would be pressure on him to adopt a more hostile approach towards other claimants to divert the attention of domestic population. It must be understood that there is an aggressive China with expansionist designs. China does not deviate from the objective; it has set to achieve.

In a significant move the ASEAN with Vietnam as the Chairman has issued the joint statement on the 27 th June that the 1982 UNCLOS should be the basis for determining maritime entitlements, sovereign rights, jurisdiction and legitimate interests over maritime zones. The statement further added that “UNCLOS sets out the legal framework within which all activities in the oceans and seas must be carried out.” It also laid emphasis on the “importance of non-militarisation and self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability, and avoid actions that may further complicate the situation.”

This marks a significant strengthening of the bloc under the Vietnam as Chairman. Vietnam had been consistently suggesting the importance of UNCLOS. The PCA Ruling too is based on this law. Some ASEAN Members have approached the UN for its implementation and this is the only way to establish peace in the region. India, Japan, Australia and US also support this view. Now the International Community and ASEAN should jointly work through UN to get PCA Ruling implemented in the SCS.