‘Trolls: World Tour’: A Promised Game-Changer Which Changed Absolutely Nothing

DreamWorks Animation and Universal’s Trolls: World Tour arrives on DVD and Blu-ray exactly 88 days after its April 10 theatrical release. So, yes, technically the DWA sequel arrived on physical media three months after its domestic theatrical opening day, thus “respecting” the unofficial theatrical window. Of course, the catch is that while Trolls: World Tour is by default the biggest-grossing movie released since March 13, with around $4 million in unofficial grosses, it was released concurrently on PVOD on that same mid-April Friday. It was a move that put Universal at war with AMC and NATO. However, as the Anna Kendrick/Justin Timberlake/Rachel Bloom toon arrives in post-theatrical afterlife, we can take stock of the mere idea that it wasn’t quite the Hollywood game changer.  

Universal/Comcast’s initial boasts of record-breaking digital rentals and around $95 million in revenue over the first 19 days, and an indirect pledge to release more big movies either straight to PVOD or via a shortened theatrical window depending on the initial results, led to AMC threatening to ban Universal titles from their theaters. All due respect to both parties in this unprecedented moment, but AMC, Regal and Cinemark can’t survive going forward if they aren’t playing the likes of Candyman, No Time to Die (overseas), F9, Jurassic World: Dominion and Minions: The Rise of Gru. Conversely, there’s no way Universal makes money on their bigger-budget titles without a traditional global theatrical release. And yes, there’s a case for shortening the theatrical window for instant flops.   

However, Walt Dohrn’s Trolls: World Tour (while a better movie than its predecessor) wasn’t that huge of a success. It earned about as much in three weeks ($95 million) as Trolls earned domestically in theaters ($93 million) opening alongside Doctor Strange, Hacksaw Ridge and Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them in late 2016. It continued to rack up revenue over the next 2.5 months, but we don’t know if it actually made a profit. The DWA flick cost $90 million to produce, so even accounting for Universal getting 80% of the $20-per-rental cut (versus 50% for a theater ticket), the film arguably needed to earn around $150 million to break even, and that’s being generous in terms of marketing expenses for what was planned as a global theatrical release.

The first Trolls earned a strong $71.8 million in domestic physical media sales, but that was after the film earned $347 million in global theatrical release. As noted many times over the last few months, the only titles I can find (in recent history) that earned over $200 million in physical media sales are Frozen and Avatar, both of which were incredibly popular theatrical releases. The idea that an A+ blockbuster title can skip theaters and earn an approximation of a successful theatrical release in PVOD and physical media sales is not quite accurate. As noted yesterday, the 74% jump in Disney+ subscribers over the weekend thanks to Hamilton translated into around 753,000 new subscribers and just $5.2 million in new monthly revenue.

Trolls (released by Fox in 2016) earned $153 million in domestic theaters, and it’s possible that Trolls: World Tour earned something close to that on PVOD. Of note, $153 million divided by 50% is $76 million, which Comcast had already earned via that 80/20 split in that much-discussed $95 million 19-day “opening” for Trolls 2 on PVOD. Nonetheless, putting aside marketing costs, Trolls: World Tour would have to earn around $210 million in global PVOD, DVD and Blu-ray sales and rentals just to approximate the $172 million earned (presuming China took their usual 75% of the film’s $8 million gross) in the global theatrical release of the first Trolls. That’s entirely possible, but Comcast lost out on whatever the film would have also earned in theaters.

Moreover, and I think this is a key point, Trolls: World Tour earned whatever it earned on PVOD during an entirely unprecedented moment in world history, one (hopefully) unlikely to be replicated anytime soon. The kid-friendly follow-up to a well-liked animated musical was the first big movie to skip theaters and go directly to PVOD. It was explicitly aimed at families stuck at home during the first month of quarantine, and it still may have earned less than Trolls earned in domestic theaters as just one big title among many in a crowded year-end slate. If this kind of release strategy for big movies became “normal,” the likes of Trolls: World Tour would be no more special on PVOD than they would have been in theaters.  

Warner Bros.’ Scoob! tried the same trick, debuting on PVOD ($20 to rent, $25 to buy) on May 15 and allegedly earned around 40% of whatever Trolls did. That’s not inherently bad, since I’m guessing Scoob! cost a lot less than Trolls: World Tour and was even more of a theatrical commercial question mark since animated Scooby-Doo content isn’t exactly hard to find on VOD and streaming. However, it does show that Trolls: World Tour benefited from being first and from the deluge of free media gifted upon its release. For that matter, while allegedly “relative successes,” it’s not like Comcast’s other PVOD titles (The King of Staten Island, You Should Have Left, The High Note and Irresistible) left the studio drowning in revenue.

If Trolls: World Tour was the game-changer that wasn’t, we should at least note that it helped keep (at least some, if not all) the folks who make their living promoting and distributing Universal and Focus Features films employed during the current madness. The various PVOD releases offered at least some relatively conventional “theatrical” films for them to promote (and for us to write about) over the summer. Trolls: World Tour may have been a minor salvation to get through a tough time, not unlike how I presume Tenet will be received if it opens theatrically as planned next month. As for whether Trolls: World Tour is a moneymaking success, I’d imagine the biggest hint will be whether Universal and DreamWorks bothers to make Trolls 3.