The Sasikala factor in the ruling All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) refuses to fade away.
Despite the party leadership’s spokesperson and Fisheries Minister D. Jayakumar making it clear a week ago that there had been no change in the party’s line against the re-entry of V.K. Sasikala , aide of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa, and her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran into the organisation, the public discourse on the future of the party continues to centre around the Sasikala factor, which has acquired a new dimension against the backdrop of speculation over her early release.
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In the last couple of days too, on separate occasions, Food Minister R. Kamaraj in Thanjavur and Commercial Taxes Minister K.C. Veeramani in Nattrampalli of Tiruppatur district, asserted that the party and the government would not go the Sasikala way.
Notwithstanding the Ministers reiterating the party line now and then, sections of the second-rung party leaders seem to be developing the notion that striking a “working relationship” with the Sasikala-Dhinakaran camp would only be beneficial for the AIADMK at the time of Assembly elections, scheduled to be held in April-May next year.
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Conceding that the party, given the present state of strength, will not be able to emerge victorious at the hustings, the leaders argue that regardless of the details of a “reconciliation formula,” what is imperative is that there has to be “reconciliation” with the other side.
They point out that the performance of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), headed by Mr. Dhinakaran, in the Lok Sabha polls and Assembly by-elections in April-May 2019, cannot be glossed over while finalising strategies to face the Assembly polls next year. “The votes they (AMMK) had polled should have come to us otherwise,” they feel.
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Though the AMMK did not do well last year, it spoilt the victory chances of the AIADMK-led front in the Ramanathapuram parliamentary constituency, where it had netted the highest vote share of about 13.3%, and four Assembly seats (Periyakulam, Andipatti, Ottapidaram and Thiruparankundram).
Applying the same yardstick of the AMMK’s vote share exceeding the difference between the votes polled by the DMK and the AIADMK, its presence made a difference in an equal number of Assembly constituencies and in the Theni Lok Sabha seat, this time in favour of the ruling party. Totally, other than the two, the AMMK had got double-digit vote share in Sivaganga and Virudhunagar parliamentary seats, all in the south.
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Of the nine Assembly constituencies in the southern belt that saw by-elections in mid-2019, the AMMK had secured double-digit vote share in five, including Manamadurai. In the central region, the party’s following was around 10% in Thanjavur and Tiruvarur. Likewise, during elections to panchayat union wards in December last year, the party had demonstrated again that it was no pushover at least in two districts — Thanjavur and Sivaganga.
As far as the AMMK is concerned, a key functionary says that his organisation is not averse to the thought of facing the Assembly polls next year under one banner. But, this has to be under the leadership of Sasikala and Mr. Dhinakaran, he points out.
However, considering the perception that a sizeable segment of the electorate as well as the AIADMK rank and file does not favour Sasikala as a political leader, it remains to be seen how the AIADMK leadership would tackle this if any rapprochement is made with her.
