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For the first time this season, the West Pacific/South China Sea is likely rolling in a friendly circulation into the Bay of Bengal to perk up the monsoon here, part of the larger Asian climatic event. But the system is projected to move too fast across and may not drop anchor in the Bay of Bengal for an extended play.
Satellite pictures showed a low-pressure area building in the South China Sea and likely intensifying over the next couple of days as a depression and crossing Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Myanmar before weakening as a cyclonic circulation and entering the extreme North-East Bay waters by August 4.
Despite not being a low-pressure area, it would be able to pump in strong south-easterly monsoon winds into the monsoon trough extending into West and North-West India, meet up with the south-westerly monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea and trigger heavy to very heavy rains over Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
Straight line to West
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) agrees with this global outlook and sees the circulation travelling West over land on almost a straight line from the West Bengal/Odisha coast to Gujarat and causing the monsoon trough to slot itself alongside, and driving heavy showers across the region from August 5.
Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Thursday morning saw a resurgent monsoon pour down in torrents mainly over Kerala, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, North-East and adjoining East India while it was only less intense over the rest of North-West and South India.
Heavy rains recorded
The significant amounts of rain (in cm) recorded during this period were: Cherthala-19; Ernakulam-18; Cannur-16; Nandyal, Vellanikkara and Thrissur-15 each; Piravom, Aluva and Ernakulam-14 each; Kumarakom and Ponnani-13 each; Kottayam-12; Pasighat-11; Karnal-10; Shimla, Kozhikode, Valprai, Itanagar, North Lakhimpur, Cherrapunji and Cooch Behar-9 each; Khagaria and Khandwa-8 each.
On Thursday, the western end of the monsoon trough extended from Ganganagar in Rajasthan, its normal position, while its eastern end refused to move down correspondingly from the foothills of the Himalayas towards a more southerly position, closer to the Bay waters where it normally dips into.
More for West Coast, North-West
Presence of the western end of the trough would attract moist south-westerly monsoon winds from off the Gujarat coast (North-East Arabian Sea) for at least the next 2-3 days, the IMD said. It has predicted widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Uttarakhand during this period.
The same forecast is valid for the hilly regions of West Bengal and Sikkim while heavy rainfall is the likely outcome for the Jammu Division, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, East Rajasthan, South Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Maharashtra and Goa.
The rest of the West Coast would also benefit from the incoming circulation currently situated as far to the East as the West Pacific/South China Sea. Widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls has been forecast not just over Konkan and Goa but also over the Ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra during August 1-3.
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