Russian Stooge or Manchurian Candidate? It’s politics silly

The latest revelation from US intelligence that American voters face a choice between a ‘Manchurian candidate’ and a ‘Siberian nominee’ in the 2020 American presidential elections, won’t get analysts in a twist. William Evanina, director of the US National Counterintelligence and Security Centre, has assessed that China prefers President Donald Trump does not win re-election because it sees him as unpredictable, while Russia is using a range of measures to undermine challenger Joe Biden’s campaign. For good measure, he has thrown in Iran which he believes is working to undermine US democratic institutions.

If this intel is taken at face value, then it is advantage Trump as his main plank for the election will be attacking China. For, at the moment it is China that is earning the ire of the world in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. What has made matters worse is that China has also seemingly tried to take advantage of the ensuing chaos by aggressively pushing its claims vis-à-vis the South China Sea, Taiwan and even eastern Ladakh in India. As I have written before, this is to protect the current Chinese Communist Party leadership from internal criticism of its handling of the pandemic. In fact, protecting Chinese President Xi Jinping becomes all the more imperative for the party apparatus against the backdrop of Xi trying to reinforce the authority and legitimacy of the party as the sole centre of power in China.

In any case, the larger public narrative in the US today is that China is somehow to blame for the pandemic. Of course, there are various shades of grey here. Some Americans believe China is totally to blame, some believe China is partially to blame, while others believe it is the Trump administration’s incompetence that has led to so many Covid cases and deaths in the US after the virus was imported from China. So the common thread between the three groups is that they all believe that China was in some way responsible for the current chaos. Therefore, if it comes down to it, Americans today would rather vote for a Russian stooge – Trump – than a Manchurian candidate – Biden. The simple fact is Russia is not seen as having damaged the US in a direct way in the last four years. Whereas, China has clearly shaken the world. And one thing that has been proven in elections across the world in recent years is that people tend to vote with their gut feelings to the point of overriding their brains. In other words, if you stimulate people emotionally enough, they won’t bring their brains to the polling booth.

I may be accused of gross generalisation here, but the above has been a fact election after election in recent years. That said, one thing is clear from the latest intel – many people are apparently trying to influence the US elections. This begs the question: What if the intel itself is politicised? What if it is designed to make the American public think that Trump the Russian stooge is a better choice than Biden the Manchurian candidate? After all, one can argue that China may be happy to have Trump in place as he has done the most damage to the multilateral global order that Beijing is keen to rewrite. For, as the US withdraws from institutions like the WHO, it is China that steps in. Who benefitted from the US pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership? China. Who benefits from Trump loosening the underpinnings of US alliances in East Asia? China.

Meanwhile, the Russians really don’t care about Trump’s CAATSA sanctions. Many countries have anyway said they won’t abide by those sanctions. On the other hand, Trump is keen on re-inducting Russia into an expanded G7. So one can argue that both Russia and China want Trump to continue in office. And under the current circumstances it hurts Biden more to be known as a Manchurian candidate than Trump to be known as a Russian stooge. Hell, Trump can even own the tag of a Russian stooge as long as he is tough on China. Therefore, there are many permutations, combinations and speculations here. The best thing for the American public would be to vote on the basis of Trump’s performance in office and Biden’s possible potential. Side note: Russia and China today share strategic congruity in many areas.