It's time to determine the greatest heavyweight in UFC history. Champion Stipe Miocic will put his title on the line against former light heavyweight and heavyweight titleholder Daniel Cormier to cap off their amazing trilogy at UFC 252 in Las Vegas on Saturday night. The pair have had two epic fights over the last two years, with each scoring a knockout. Now, they look to settle the score.
Miocic has run the proverbial gauntlet at heavyweight in his career. The champion has 15 knockouts in 19 career wins, including a stretch of Mark Hunt, Andrei Arlovski, Fabricio Werdum, Alistair Overeem, Junior dos Santos and Francis Ngannou over four years that saw him secure the title. The loss by first-round TKO to Cormier in 2018 was just he second of his career.
Cormier, on the other hand, is among the most accomplished in the sport's history. His only two professional losses have come to Miocic and Jon Jones (a second loss to Jones was later overturned to a no contest). He won the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix in 2012 and owns wins over Josh Barnett, Frank Mir, Roy Nelson, Dan Henderson, Anthony Johnson, Alexander Gustafsson, Anderson Silva and more. A win (even though he believes he's already there) solidifies Cormier as one of the best ever in MMA history.
When the action is expected to be this good, gamblers can't wait to get in on the fun. And that's exactly what you can expect this weekend with so many intriguing matchups up and down this 11-fight card. A lot of gamblers like to live outside the box of straight moneyline picks, and that's what we're here for in this space. We're going to take a closer look at the main card to find the best values on prop bets with odds provided via William Hill Sportsbook.
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Stipe Miocic (c) vs. Daniel Cormier
Method of result | Odds |
---|---|
Miocic via KO/TKO/DQ | +170 |
Miocic via submission | +1800 |
Miocic via decision | +450 |
Cormier via KO/TKO/DQ | +190 |
Cormier via submission | +1000 |
Cormier via decision | +400 |
Draw | +5000 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +175 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -250 |
Pick: Daniel Cormier via decision (+400) -- Sure, the first two fights ended in knockouts. And, yes, heavyweight fights only go to decision roughly 25% of the time. But the fight plan Cormier was following in the second matchup was one that was on pace for a decision victory before he began to abandon the gameplan and open himself up for Miocic's big comeback and finish late in Round 4. With the Cormier camp swearing up and down that D.C. will stick to the gameplan this time around, the +400 line on a Cormier decision looks tasty for those who believe he will use a wrestling-first approach and put rounds in the bank.
Sean O'Malley vs. Marlon Vera
Method of result | Odds |
---|---|
O'Malley via KO/TKO/DQ | +150 |
O'Malley via submission | +2000 |
O'Malley via decision | +150 |
Vera via KO/TKO/DQ | +1200 |
Vera via submission | +650 |
Vera via decision | +550 |
Draw | +5000 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | -120 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -120 |
Pick: Sean O'Malley via KO/TKO/DQ (+150) -- Vera has six losses in his career, all by decision, so that may cause some hesitation in picking O'Malley to score the knockout. O'Malley is just a different beast, even when compared to other big bangers Vera has faced, such as John Lineker. O'Malley will throw anything and everything at Vera and utilize his length to land with regularity. And when O'Malley lands with regularity, he has a very good chance of knocking out anyone.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Method of result | Odds |
---|---|
Dos Santos via KO/TKO/DQ | +330 |
Dos Santos via submission | +1200 |
Dos Santos via decision | +350 |
Rozenstruik via KO/TKO/DQ | -110 |
Rozenstruik via submission | +2000 |
Rozenstruik via decision | +800 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +225 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -300 |
Pick: Jairzinho Rozenstruik via KO/TKO/DQ (-110) -- This fight largely hinges on Rozenstruik's mental state after getting blitzed by Francis Ngannou in just 20 seconds in May. Dos Santos has been knocked out five times in his career, including his last two fights. At 36, he isn't likely to be getting any better, or more durable, even if he has undergone a physical transformation lately. Rozenstruik has massive power and that should allow him to pick up another big win against a guy whose chin can crack and get back on track after the bad loss to Ngannou.
Herbert Burns vs. Daniel Pineda
Method of result | Odds |
---|---|
Burns via KO/TKO/DQ | +650 |
Burns via submission | -150 |
Burns via decision | +650 |
Pineda via KO/TKO/DQ | +550 |
Pineda via submission | +1400 |
Pineda via decision | +600 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +275 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -400 |
Pick: Fight goes the distance: Yes (+275) -- All indications are that this fight should end with Burns submitting Pineda. Burns has eight submission wins in 13 career fights and Pineda has been submitted six times in his career. Those Pineda numbers are misleading, however, with those submission losses all coming more than a decade ago and his ground game has improved since. Burns is still a big submission threat, but I don't know that he will finish off Pineda with a submission and the fight could turn into more kickboxing match than grappling exhibition.
John Dodson vs. Merab Dvalishvili
Method of result | Odds |
---|---|
Dodson via KO/TKO/DQ | +450 |
Dodson via submission | +1400 |
Dodson via decision | +350 |
Dvalishvili via KO/TKO/DQ | +1200 |
Dvalishvili via submission | +1000 |
Dvalishvili via decision | -150 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | -300 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | +225 |
Pick: Dvalishvili via decision (-150) -- Unless you have faith in Dodson scoring a knockout, the Dvalishvili by decision line is pretty much the only line that makes sense without the odds being too long for a meaningful return (like the fight going the distance at -300). Dodson has dropped off in recent years while Dvalishvili has been putting things together. Dvalishvili has had 11 of his 15 career fights go to the judges' scorecards. It's a safe pick, but one that could form a strong part of a bigger parlay.
Who will win UFC 252, and how exactly will each fight end? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight on Saturday's card, all from the accomplished expert who's up over $20,000 and has nailed 16 of the last 18 UFC main events.