Tropical storm Noul in the South China Sea is now the outlier weather system with ramifications for the ongoing monsoon in India as it approaches the Vietnam coast for a landfall and whose onward track across Indochina as a remnant circulation and entry into the Bay of Bengal would scale up rainfall here.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated the prospects of a low-pressure area forming over the North-East Bay by Sunday. The area of its genesis and the timing suggest that it would be the direct descendent of the storm that has travelled all the way from the Philippine Sea.

More rain forecast

A helpful East-West shear zone of monsoon turbulence ran across Panaji on Wednesday and a cyclonic circulation from an erstwhile Bay low persisted over Telangana. This is just enough to trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, Goa, Vidarbha, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka and Kerala for two more days.

The 24 hours ending on Wednesday morning saw heavy to very heavy rainfall over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh while it was heavy over Konkan, Goa, Saurashtra, Kutch, West Madhya Pradesh, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and hills West Bengal and Sikkim.

 

Heavy overnight rain

Main station recording rainfall (in cm) during this period are Cherrapunji-20; Kokrajhar-19; Kalaburgi-18; Kamareddy-16; Dewas and Pasighat-13; William Nagar and Sangli-11; Basar, Bongaigaon and Darjeeling-10; Chirang and Jalpaiguri-9; Ratnagiri, Lakhimpur, Hakimpet, Nizamabad, Maheshwaram, Jogipet, Raichur, Cooch Behar and Dhubri-8; Nandigama, Alladurg, Venkantapur, Malvan, Latur, Krishna, Amreli, Surendranagar and Baghdogra-7; and Harnai, Vangurla, Sholapur and Silchar-6 each.

Isolated heavy to very heavy falls were forecast over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka on Wednesday. The upcoming low-pressure area over the North-East Bay would strengthen the monsoon winds along the West Coast yet again. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with Isolated heavy to very heavy falls have been forecast over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Karnataka and Kerala during Saturday to Monday.

Extended rainy outlook

An extended IMD outlook from September 22 to 24 said that widespread rain with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may break out over North-East India while fairly widespread with isolated heavy falls are forecast over Central and adjoining East India. Isolated to scattered rainfall activity is likely over the rest of the country except parts of North-West India where dry weather may prevail. All-India rainfall surplus for the country as a whole remains at seven per cent as on Wednesday, the IMD said.

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