Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT

G.O.P. senators are struggling in key states, a Times poll found.

The New York Times /
Siena College poll

Democrats hold a lead over Republican incumbents in three key Senate races.

Dem. Rep. Margin
Arizona Ariz. (n=653)
50%
Mark Kelly
42%
Martha McSally
+ 8 Dem.
7% undecided
Maine Maine (663)
49%
Sara Gideon
44%
Susan Collins
+ 5 Dem.
6% undecided
North Carolina N.C. (653)
42%
Cal Cunningham
37%
Thom Tillis
+ 5 Dem.
16% undecided

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters from Sept. 10 to Sept. 16.

President Trump’s mismanagement of the coronavirus pandemic has imperiled both his own re-election and his party’s majority in the Senate, and Republican lawmakers in crucial states like Arizona, North Carolina and Maine have fallen behind their Democratic challengers amid broad disapproval of the president, according to a poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College.

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. led Mr. Trump by wide margins in Arizona, where he was ahead by nine percentage points, and Maine, where he led by 17 points. The race was effectively tied in North Carolina, with Mr. Biden ahead by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent.

In all three states, Democratic Senate candidates were leading Republican incumbents by five percentage points or more. Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican seeking a fifth term, is in a difficult battle against Sara Gideon, trailing by five points as voters there delivered a damning verdict on Mr. Trump’s stewardship: By a 25-point margin, 60 percent to 35 percent, they said they trusted Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump on the issue of the pandemic.

The poll, conducted among likely voters, suggests that the most endangered Republican lawmakers have not managed to convince many voters to view them in more favorable terms than the leader of their party, who remains in political peril with less than 50 days remaining in the campaign. Democrats appear well positioned to gain several Senate seats, and most voters say they would prefer to see the White House and Senate controlled by the same party. But it is not yet clear that Democrats are on track to gain a clear majority, and their hopes outside the races tested in the poll largely depend on winning in states Mr. Trump is likely to carry.

Alexander Burns is a national political correspondent, covering elections and political power across the country, including Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign. Before coming to The Times in 2015, he covered the 2012 presidential election for Politico. More about Alexander Burns

Matt Stevens is a political reporter based in New York. He previously covered breaking news on The Times's Express desk. @ByMattStevens More about Matt Stevens

Advertisement

SKIP ADVERTISEMENT