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The year 2020 South-West monsoon seems to have declared one final assault on the landscape with the formation of the latest low-pressure area over North-East Bay of Bengal exactly as per India Meteorological Department (IMD) prediction, promising heavy rain initially over the South Peninsula.
The low will bring back the monsoon westerlies roaring along the West Coast over the next 3-4 days, and is expected to trigger fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Kerala, Karnataka, Konkan and Goa till Tuesday (September 22), the IMD outlook said.
Isolated extremely heavy falls have been predicted over Coastal Karnataka during this period; over the Ghat sections of South Interior Karnataka and North Kerala until tomorrow (Monday); and over South Konkan and Goa both on Monday and Tuesday.
Rain for East and North-East India
Given the proximity to the area of genesis of the low-pressure area, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is forecast over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana till Monday and over the plains of West Bengal, from Sunday to Tuesday.
Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy falls is also likely over the hills of West Bengal and the North-Eastern States from Monday to Wednesday. Isolated extremely heavy falls have been warned over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya on Tuesday and over the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rainfall surplus at 7 per cent
Thunder squalls (speeds reaching 50-60 kmph) accompanied with thunderstorm, lightning and hail may strike Uttarakhand until Monday while moderate thunderstorm and lightning are likely over Odisha, plains of West Bengal, East Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada, North Interior Karnataka, Telangana, Rayalaseema and Coastal Andhra Pradesh until this (Sunday) evening.
Rainfall recorded for the country as a whole has been retained at 107 per cent of the long-period average for more than a week now. This year’s monsoon has stood out in terms of good distribution of rainfall across the temporal and spatial scales, save few exceptions.
Excess/normal in 30 states
The rainfall has been normal/excess in as many as 30 states and deficit in only seven. In the North-West, Himachal Pradesh has fallen back into deficit (-23 per cent) while the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir improved its tally to -30 per cent but its cousin Ladakh continued to lag with a big -64 per cent.
In the North-East, Nagaland (-29 per cent); Mizoram (-33 per cent); and Manipur (-49 per cent) wallow in rainfall deficit. But these areas can expect to redeem the situation to some extent thanks to fresh accruals from the Bay low, while it’s more of an open and shut case for the hill states in the North-West.
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