However, experts cast doubts on whether the purported decline in active cases shown by the government's data, paints the real picture of the coronavirus pandemic in the country while pointing to a decrease in COVID-19 testing.

Those volunteering to take the test are being included in the official figures while asymptomatic patients are left out, while the statistics fail to pinpoint the coronavirus hotspots relative to the population density in parts of the country, they said.

"The data provided by the government shows the infection rate is trending downwards. But we're not aware of area-based infections and whether it is increasing or decreasing. Antibody tests are never done. An antibody test would reveal the area-based infection rate."

Bangladesh has been solely reliant on the RT-PCR testing system for coronavirus diagnosis until now. It is viewed as the most reliable testing system in the world to detect the novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2, which causes the respiratory illness COVID-19.

The RT-PCR system, however, is expensive and takes longer to return results.

The antibody test, on the other hand, is quicker and can identify asymptomatic patients who have recovered already. This will enable the authorities to determine the real extent of the pandemic.

"We're not tracing and then testing people with potential exposure to the pathogen. A COVID-19 test after tracing potential patients would give us the real number of cases," said Be-Nazir.

The government has recently approved the use of the antigen-based rapid tests for COVID-19, but they are yet to approve the antibody test.

According to the DGHS, the daily caseload remained between 3,500 and 4,000 from June to July. The numbers hovered between 1,500 and 2,000 in mid-September.

According to the DGHS, the total number of infections in the country is 353,844 with a death toll of  5,044 as of Sept 23.

Be-Nazir, also an adviser to the World Health Organisation, believes the government's data is skewed by the lack of testing, based on which, people are abandoning caution over the disease. This in turn raises the risk of infection in the country.

"Health protocols should be followed by the people, while the government must ensure proper testing, isolation and quarantine procedures. If these issues are addressed then the infection will not spread as much despite a lack of adherence to health protocols."

Be-Nazir highlighted the need for ‘proper management’ to combat the pandemic.

“Everyone cannot go into self-quarantine. A person from the lower-income group, who may lose his job for not attending office for a day, will never disclose his symptoms. He'll take medicine and go out, and therefore, spread the pathogen further.”

While the government agencies have been talking about controlling the infection, they have not in fact been able to curb the epidemic as they had opted for the ‘wrong approach’ to tackle the crisis, he added.

“We believe that we have bridled the spread of the virus, but in reality, we haven’t. This is how we’re harming ourselves. The other countries are dealing with the issue in a different way. It would have been better if we could drag the number of cases down to zero in two months. But the situation remains the same after six months. Therefore, we’re entering a long-term infection cycle. It will become worse if we fail to control it before the winter.”

On what the country’s present position in combating the pandemic is, six months after reporting its first cases, the epidemiologist replied: “We’re in a confusing state. We won’t be able to control it if things go on like this. Rather we’ll move towards an uncontrolled epidemic."

Experts have been warning about a ‘second wave’ of the infection in Bangladesh, like elsewhere around the world. The prime minister, too, has warned about the prospect of a surge in COVID-19 cases once winter sets in, ordering the authorities to take necessary precautions.

The National Technical Advisory on COVID-19 posted a public notice in the media with the same warning.

“The first wave of the infection is still not over in the country. Countries like China or other European countries have brought down the number of daily cases to zero, but we couldn’t do it in six months. We’re calling it wave-imposed, which means, if we can't control it, another wave will spread over the existing wave, but the numbers will not decrease,” said Be-Nazir.

“The more we identify the cases and isolate the patients, the better we can control the epidemic. The pathogen will spread more if we leave it like this, and the second wave will be bigger,” he said.

“Other countries have succeeded in controlling the epidemic with the help of the local government. They went from door to door. China did it with the help of the commune system, but we don’t have that capacity at the district level,” said Husain. 

Capacity-building cannot be achieved overnight but the authorities can employ more doctors and volunteers with an increased budget to run more tests, he said. 

“A political decision is needed on this. It would be wrong to think that the coronavirus will disappear and we’ll go back to our old routine.”

According to the DGHS, as many as 14,150 samples were tested at 102 laboratories across the country in the 24 hours to 8 am Wednesday, pushing the total number of tests to 1.86 million.

The infection rate during that time was 11.77 percent, while 19 percent of all tested samples returned positive results, with mortalities accounting for 1.43 percent of all cases until now.

The epidemic can only be said to have ebbed if the daily infection rate stays at around 5 percent for three consecutive weeks on the back of around 20,000 cases a day on average, according to Husain.

“The trend can’t be comprehended as yet. If the infection rate keeps dropping for two to three weeks, we’ll be able to denote the trend. The daily infection rate was above 20 percent in June, July and August. Rather than the fatality rate, it is the infection rate that gives us a better idea about the epidemic. We can’t compare this to other countries. In India, the positivity rate is 8-9 percent but the infections are mounting.”

He also drew a connection between the daily death toll and the infection rate.

“The number of infections has dropped since September. But if the mortality rate does not decrease, we can assume that the infection rate hasn't tailed off either. The death toll is more reliable. We can’t get the infection rate unless more tests are done.”

Husain suggested that the government should isolate the infected people and quarantine those who were exposed to them.

“It will need socio-economic assistance to motivate people to go to the isolation centre. Secondly, they must follow the health protocols. The government must provide social and health assistance at the root level,” he said.

The daily caseload will drop further if the number of tests increase, believes Dr ASM Alamgir, chief scientific officer of IEDCR.

“If we see a 12 percent infection rate after 13,000 tests, the rate will be less than 5 percent when 50,000 tests are done. The reality is, there has been a decline in COVID-19 cases,” he said.

Alamgir, however, does not believe that it is the time to claim the epidemic has ebbed.

“If the number of cases drops in the same manner for two more weeks, it will reach a tolerable level, but it will still be an epidemic. WHO considers a ‘tolerable relief’ when the infection drops below 5 percent. We have to wait for that.”

The government is trying to increase the number of tests, said Alamgir.

On the chances of a second wave gripping the country, he added, “To prevent a second wave, we must be aware of the situation and follow the health protocols. As there’s no vaccine yet, we must be careful. There’s no alternative to washing hands and wearing a mask."

At present, the DGHS does not have any plan to impose a lockdown again.

“As the infection rate is dropping and people are worried about their livelihoods, we’ll continue to disseminate the information on health protocols. But there’s no plan to take strong legal measures now,” said DGHS Additional Director General Nasima Sultana.