One more step on the Atmanirbharta ladder

जो स्वदेशी है वो अपना है  जो विदेशी है वो सपना है
खड़े हो अपने दो पैरों पर , बनो आत्मनिर्भर अपने दमख़म पर

Reposing Pride and Trust on ‘Our Own’

This article is inspired by the thoughts set out in the hindi caption above. There is a general tendency (or call it fashion) to run down the indigenous discarding it in the bin on any number of counts… ‘cannot match world class technology’, ‘too costly’, ‘too late in the day’ , etc, etc.

This author on the contrary, is driven by the thought that while the indigenous may be ridden with any number of sub-optimalities, IT IS OUR OWN and will be available to us when the chips are down. In that sense, It is much better to be equipped with one ‘bit’ less than the world’s best if that ‘bit’ dons shades of tricolor- that’s the message.

Building the Perspective

In the above context, while, the DRDO along with other Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) can be faulted for hundreds of failures, time and cost overruns, un-kept promises, keeping the Services waiting perpetually for products etc., there are areas where these agencies have achieved considerable success worthy of rich praise. Some of these areas include radars of all shades, surface-to-surface missiles, electronic warfare equipment, BMC2 systems, naval platforms and more.

All the above gets added relevance given the new ‘realities’ of today. The reality of the defence private sector having ‘arrived’; the reality that the erstwhile ‘make-in-India’ magic (which was only a credo and nothing more to the private sector) is beginning to get traction given the political will ( read push) and the fact that today there are any number of foreign players who are more than keen to MAKE IT IN INDIA. (..news dated 24/9…Webley and Scott setting up shop in our UP defence Corridor for staring small arms production in India from Nov.. 1 ).

One more area to be proud of.

One more area where reasonable progress has been made by our nation is the hypersonic technology and its translation into hypersonic weapons. This article visits the Indian landscape in this domain and suggests a road ahead.

Very basically, a hypersonic weapon is one that can travel at speeds greater than five times the speed of sound (5 Mach). This works out to 6174 km/h or for better comprehension, 1.6 Kms per sec.

Hypersonic weapons have two other characteristic signatures. These are:-

1. Unlike the conventional ballistic missiles which are initially boosted by one or multiple stages of rocket motors and then left to follow a predictable ballistic trajectory, hypersonic weapons are all-the-way-powered till the end-game enabling them to achieve the kind of speeds as stated above.

2. Such weapons unlike ballistic missiles (which normally fly for most of their trajectories in the upper atmosphere thus making their ballistic trajectories highly predictable) remain low with unpredictable trajectories.

Why Hypersonic Weapons?

Why hypersonic weapons have become such a hot priority area of development for the front-ranking nations of the world today ( US, Russia, China) is because of their four signature characteristics. These are:-

1. Unstoppability.

With speeds in excess of Mach 5 (up to Mach 10 realized) , hypersonic weapons can hit anywhere on the earth in less than an hour. Weapons hurled at this speeds totally out beat the minimum reaction-time cycle of any known conventional air and missile defence system. Such a cycle, howsoever compressed, still requires the target to be detected, identified as hostile, tracked for engagement, assigned to systems and weapons launched at them. This proves to be too long for tackling a weapon closing in at hypersonic speeds. This makes all known conventional air and missile defences redundant when it comes to countering hypersonic weapons.

2. Un-detectability.

In the context of hypersonic weapons , it is stated that ‘speed is the new stealth’ simply because, the current generation of sensors which require a basic minimum time to process target echoes ( active or passive) to achieve detection will simply be beaten by the time window granted by hypersonic threats make such weapons nearly undetectable by conventional sensors.

3. Unpredictability

Again as a function of its speed, hypersonic threats can quickly change their targets beating the defender’s time cycle to re-adjust and re-align. This unpredictability has a multiplicative effect since hypersonic weapons, once launched can keep huge swaths of areas under immediate threat forcing the defender to commit disproportionate resources.

4. Catastrophic potential

What is the effect of kinetics on warhead can be judged from the fact that one kg of warhead hurled at a speed of 5 Mach has an effect that is 36 times higher than the same warhead atop a ballistic missile. That said, one can imagine he catastrophic kill potential of many hundreds of kgs of warheads riding at super hypersonic speeds on board hypersonic weapons.

Shades of hypersonic threat.

Very basically, hypersonic weapons are being developed in two classes, namely, Hypersonic Cruise Missiles ( HCMs) an Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs).

HCMs are basically cruise missile in terms of their accuracy (sub-metric), guidance, and low altitude radar-evasive trajectories. These become HCMs because of their capability to fly at hypersonic speeds; a feat which is made possible by keeping the missile all-the-way powered. Hypersonic magnitudes of speeds are possible by use of special engines called the supersonic combustion ram jet (SCRAMJET) engines. Such engines, as the name suggests permit the combustion of gases at supersonic speeds which can produce supersonic acceleration (technical details of SCRAMJET not explained further).

HGVs are based on a different philosophy. These are small aerodynamically shaped glide vehicles that are propelled by booster rocket motors to such tremendous speeds where the shock waves generated by their own flights start acting as lifting surfaces. These waves greatly reduce the drag and increase the lift so tremendously that the vehicle riding on such shock waves achieves speeds in excess of Mach 5 and more. Due to this peculiar phenomenon, HGVs are also called ‘wave-rider’ weapons.

Hypersonic threat in a nutshell

As to the hypersonic threat we face from China today, following points are stated:-

1. China has both the HCMs as well as HGVs. Both these are in the development and proof-of-concept stage.

2. While the work on hypersonics stared in China way back in 2002-03, it matured over the next decade and a half.

3. In Dec 2017 and again in May 2018 China demonstrated an HGV aboard a DF 17 Ballistic Missile. The HGV flew for 1400 kms and impacted the target in the Xinxiang district. China is working on the HGV project on board DF 41 ICBM 2 (further details not covered).

4. On 03 Aug 18, China reportedly flew an HCM named Xingkong II (also called Starry Sky -2) 3 . This HGV flew for about 10 minutes at speeds of 5.5 to 6 Mach (6738-7350 Km/hr) achieving an altitude of 30 Km.

5. Later Sep 2018 China conducted hypersonic tests on three scaled down hypersonic aircraft models of differently shaped designs. These ‘wide-speed-range-vehicles’ were codenamed D18-1S, D-18-2S and D 18-3S respectively. The special characteristics of this test was, that the speeds of the vehicles were adjustable for a precision strike of an ‘unstoppable nuclear capable’ weapon.

The above suggests that hypersonic threat is gradually but surely building up from China. Currently it is in the developmental stage. The same is likely to become full-blown in a few years from now (specific figure not quoted)

INDIA IN THE HYPERSONIC DOMAIN

The Journey so far…

Much like China, the hypersonics began in India way back around the turn of the millennium . Some salient points of the journey are stated:-1. Around 2003-04 preliminary work on a hypersonic air frame was started in the DRDO.

2. In 2008, Dr V K Saraswat , the then DG DRDO hinted at the possibility of dual use of the hypersonic technology which could be utilized both for the low-cost satellite launch vehicles, as well as, a hypersonic cruise missile.

3. In the period from 2010-16/17, lot of work took place in the hypersonic field. This included multiple tests on experimental vehicles using the tri-sonic wind tunnels made available with the help of Israel, as well as, by the indigenous National Aerospace Laboratory, Bangalore.

4. The main aspects on which development and testing was carried out included hypersonic aerodynamics and hypersonic thermal dynamics (special heat shields needed to be developed to withstand super high temperatures developed during the hypersonic processes).

5. Other tests included the integration of mechanical and electrical components for operation at hypersonic speeds and putting in place a guidance and a control system that can steer such vehicles to their destined targets.

6. It was in Jun 2019, when the first HGV got ready for range testing. This vehicle was carried on board Agni 1 to provide it the initial boost. Some salient details are as under:-

a. The aerodynamic vehicle measured 5.6 m.

b. It had deflectable nozzles for trajectory control.

c. The material of the vehicle was especially designed keeping in mind the special purpose of the vehicle and the scales of speeds and temperatures it had to face during its hypersonic flight. Sample these:-

i. The airframe was designed using a titanium alloy keeping in mind the high tensile strength and toughness of this alloy at extreme temperatures.

ii. The engine was made up of niobium alloy keeping in mind its very high melting point (2477°C) to allow the SCRAMJET phenomenon to take place

iii. The outer surfaces of the vehicle were made of nimonic alloy since such alloy can retain shape at high temperatures.

7. The test was however only a partial success. While the Agni 1 carrying the HGV took off precisely from the Dr Abdul Kalam Island off the coast of Orrisa on Jun 12 and successfully executed its first and second stages (booster, sustainer) , the test vehicle was not released as the missile lost control midway before the final altitude and speed required for the commencement of the wave-rider phenomenon could be reached.

8. After a gap of about three months HSTDV was tested again on 07 Sep 2020 6 . Some salient points about this launch are covered:-

a. The flight of the HSTDV was tracked all-the-way from the launch till the end game by a series of sensors deployed on the fully-anointed Interim Test range at Chandipur. These included ground-based tracking radars, electro-optical systems, telemetry stations, as also ship-borne radars.

b. The technologies which got tested successfully were:-

i SCRAMJET combustion ( fuel injection and auto-ignition).

ii Hypersonic aerodynamic phenomenon.

iii Thermal behavior of the aerodynamic vehicle and the performance of specially designed heat shields.

iv Integrated working of mechanical and electrical components in hypersonic domain.

c. Among other things , it re-established the soundness of Agni 1 as it provided successful initial boost leading to the commencement of the wave-rider phenomenon ( it was little uncomfortable to see Agni 1- a prime arsenal with strategic forces failing in the mission in Jun 2019).

d. As to the flight behavior, the wave-rider phenomenon got initiated after a successful initial boost which saw the precise separation of the HCM and initiation and the sustenance of the SCRAMJET action.

e. In a matter of just 20 sec time of flight, the vehicle achieved Mach 6 and an altitude of 30 km.

Impact of the test

As to the impact of the test, following is stated:-

1. The test on 07 Sep marked a kind of milestone in the continuing journey of nearly two decades in the field of hypersonics.

2. It opened the door to multiple future use of niche technologies like wave-rider, SCRAMJET, guidance, navigation and control of aerodynamic vehicles at hypersonic speeds etc.

3. It validated the innovative use of metal alloys for shaping different components of a hypersonic vehicle and opened the floodgates of further research in this field.

4. The possible future users of such technologies could be space crafts, missiles, unarmed vehicles and such other systems.

5. That said, there are still many challenges that stare in the eye for future implementation. Some of these could be :-

a. Achieving still higher Mach speeds and altitudes.
b. Increasing the time of flight of the HCMs.
c. Experimenting with larger and heavier aerodynamic vehicles capable of higher ranges and higher payloads.
d. Achieving better and better accuracies (sky is not the limit for this).

Some Reflections:-

1. The hypersonic threat from out potential adversary is at best in the development and proof-of-concept stage. It will take a few more years ( 3-4 may be?) before it fructifies into a battle-deployable system.

2. Keeping pace with this trend, we are also at the testing and development stage and are thus well placed in the hypersonic race.

3. It must be seen by the Govt that the momentum of development and testing in this field is maintained and we are not left behind.

4. Actually, while HCMs and HGVs are being tested for future capabilities, India is no greenhorn in the hypersonic technology per se. Sample these:-

a. Shaurya tactical surface-to-surface missile can do 7.5 Mach to a range of 50 km with an accuracy of 20-30m.

b. The hypersonic version of Brahmos II under development (likely operationalization 2022) is reported to be capable of doing Mach 7 up to 600 km.

c. The interceptors AD1 and AD II in the Phase II version of the indigenous Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system (Programme AD) are supposed to be in the hypersonic domain (details classified).

That much for the hypersonic weapons and India’s proud place therein. What about the measures to defeat a hypersonic weapon. Well, that is a huge vertical by itself and a huge challenge for the defenders. Detailing this will require a full-length article. May be the next one.

Till then lets return proudly to the starting thought
जो स्वदेशी है वो अपना है…..

And rejoice in the fact that niche hypersonic capability which is the purview of just four nations in the world is VERY MUCH OUR OWN!!

Good luck India.