“Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed.”
– Alexander Pope
This should really be the motto for the 2020 fantasy football season as we deal with injuries, letdowns and every possible emotion that comes with this sometimes wretched game.
Yet, here we are, week after week, trying to convince ourselves that we can predict the future and be the lucky few who don’t get hit by the injury bug.
Chris Carson, Julio Jones, Diontae Johnson, Chris Godwin, John Brown, Dallas Goedert, Tarik Cohen and Russell Gage (I can’t believe I put him on a list with these names) were all injured as the walking-wounded roller coaster continues.
Have you had a frustrating start to your season? Do you need help? Are you ready to throw in the towel?
Have no fear, I’m here for you.
1. The Falcons defence is a fantasy gem, for all the wrong reasons
Dan Quinn was supposed to be a defensive genius when he came to Atlanta after his stint in Seattle.
Spoiler alert: he hasn’t been.
Here are some highlights (or lowlights) of how poorly the Atlanta’s defence has held up through the first three weeks (all rankings are in PPR scoring).
Week 1 vs. Seattle: QB1 (Russell Wilson), RB7 (Chris Carson), WR13 (DK Metcalf), WR20 (Tyler Lockett and TE11 (Greg Olsen)
Week 2 vs. Dallas: QB1 (Dak Prescott), RB7 (Ezekiel Elliott), WR18 (CeeDee Lamb), WR23 (Amari Cooper) and TE7 (Dalton Schultz)
Week 3 vs. Chicago: QB3 (combined Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky), WR4 (Allen Robinson) and TE1 (Jimmy Graham)
Bad may be an understatement. Dreadful, putrid, ghastly, abominable and atrocious might be better superlatives to describe this Falcons defence.
What I’m getting at here is that you can safely start quarterbacks and almost any relevant skill position player against Atlanta and be pretty comfortable with the outcomes. The only good thing that can come out of the Falcons defence being so bad is that their own skill position guys will be getting plenty of opportunities to put up points in their upcoming games.
2. Calvin Ridley has arrived – defences beware
Speaking of the Falcons offence, Calvin Ridley has been off-the-charts great in the first three games – with and without Julio Jones, which is important. He is the WR1 in both PPR and standard formats with a monster line of 21/339/4 on 35 targets and looks like an absolute lock to finish as a WR1 this season, partly due to the Falcons defensive unit as mentioned above.
If Jones can return to health after missing Week 3 due to a hamstring injury, that can only help Ridley. Keep in mind that Ridley still garnered 12 targets in Week 1 with Jones playing the full game (he finished with an identical 12 targets), so one does not cancel out the other as many expected it might.
Ridley’s ability to create separation and win his 1-on-1 matchups also makes him a threat to score on almost any play as evidenced by his league-leading 309 air yards and 15.5 yard average depth of target. There are many who are worried about his yards-after-catch numbers, which are the worst among the top-10 receiving-yard leaders, but I don’t care. He’s been an absolute monster and will continue to do so for the rest of the year.
3. Tyler Lockett proves the doubters wrong
Last year’s finish to the season really put a damper on a lot of expectations for Tyler Lockett heading into this year and a lot of it had to do with a leg injury that was thought to be very serious.
Fast forward to early this season and Lockett has continued to be a problem for opposing defences, resulting in a WR2 ranking in both PPR and standard scoring. Yes, some of those numbers are aided by his three-touchdown performance this past week, but you can’t deny that he’s made the most of his opportunities. He has 29 targets (7th), 24 catches (T4th), 259 yards (T10th) and four touchdowns (T1st), all while getting to play on one of the most dynamic offences with one of the most accurate quarterbacks of all time in Russell Wilson (T9th all-time in completion percentage).
He is the perfect yin to DK Metcalf’s yang in the Seattle offence, allowing him to be used out wide and in the slot, letting his speed and hands do the talking. I expect to see Lockett’s name in the top-12 in the wide receiver category by season’s end and if you have a roster with great depth, try to go out and snag this guy, you won’t be disappointed.
4. The Curious Case of Joe Mixon
Zac Taylor is becoming a real thorn in the side for those who are deploying Joe Mixon as an RB1 in both PPR and standard. Why does Giovani Bernard see the field as much as he does when we know that Mixon is the far superior and more dynamic of the two?
Well, Bernard must be so much better in pass protection, right? Not quite.
According to Pro Football Focus, Mixon has a pass blocking grade of 81.4 this season compared to Bernard’s paltry 54.7 pass blocking grade.
Maybe the second-year head coach is enamoured with Bernard’s mouth-brow, because that’s the only reason I can come up with as to why he would be on the field as much as he is.
Unfortunately for those who spent high draft capital on Mixon, you may never see the best of him as long as Bernard is available. This week, Mixon played the majority of the snaps because the game was close, but in negative game scripts we have seen his playing time decreased.
Here’s the one saving grace: Bernard plays a full slate of games every second season and he played all 16 games last year. Plenty will have their doubts on Mixon for the rest of the season so he can be had – just don’t give out the info I’ve provided.
5. The Clearance Section (Sort of)
If you recall from last week’s article after all the injuries, my advice was to A) stick to your plan, and B) do your best Mike Tolbert impersonation and be a vulture.
It never fails in fantasy football that some managers just don’t have patience and those are the ones you should take advantage of. I know some will read this and think that I’m being a little hostile, to which I ask: are you in the business of being nice or are you in the business of winning?
As Knute Rockne said: “Show me a gracious loser and I’ll show you a failure.”
Here are some guys who have underperformed that you should target in trades:
Kenyan Drake, RB, Arizona Cardinals
It hasn’t been the expected start for Kenyan Drake after his resurgence last year following a trade to Arizona, but he’s handled 59 touches through the first three weeks. His production may be down, but I fully expect him to bounce back with the type of volume he’s getting. The Cardinals will play in some high-scoring games and Drake should have his games where he takes over.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears
Tarik Cohen’s torn ACL opens up the door for David Montgomery to get some usage in the passing game along with his usual workload on the ground. Montgomery had 71 catches in his three years at Iowa State and did have 25 catches last year with Cohen in the mix. This is an offence that heavily targets the running back position with 147 passes thrown their way last year. The movement from Mitchell Trubisky to Nick Foles should also help out the passing game, opening up some running lanes for Montgomery.
D.J. Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
We saw what the Jaguars’ offence looked like without D.J. Chark in the lineup on Thursday night. What we learned was that Keelan Cole and Chris Conley aren’t the answer. Chark’s start certainly doesn’t look like last year’s, especially since the Jags have decided to play at a slower pace, but they’ll be down enough throughout the year that Chark should have some garbage time value. It’s not always easy to acquire a team’s WR1 that actually has talent, but Chark may be the exception.
Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans offence hasn’t been nearly as effective as they have in past seasons with Deshaun Watson under centre, which is understandable when you trade away your best receiver (thanks, Bill O’Brien). Watson is currently ranked 17th in QB PPG scoring, which is a far cry from his top-five finish last year. However, he’s not nearly as bad as this year’s numbers would indicate and they likely won’t continue. The Texans schedule consisted of the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers in the first three weeks but it opens up over the next five matchups where they get the Vikings, Titans, Packers and Jaguars twice. We should see a rise in offensive production from the Texans and Watson will be at the forefront of that.
6. The Nick Foles Effect
Nick Foles took over from Mitchell Trubisky in the third quarter of Sunday’s game versus the Falcons and proceeded to throw three fourth-quarter touchdowns en route to a massive comeback victory. I discussed the impact Foles will have on David Montgomery, but what about the rest of the Bears’ offense?
Consistency is key.
Trubisky is ranked 30th in On Target Percentage, which excludes spikes and throwaways this season at 66.3 per cent, while last year in four starts, Foles sat with a 78.6 per cent On Target Percentage, which would have ranked him 5th.
To illustrate Trubisky’s inefficiencies, look no further than Allen Robinson’s catchable target percentage this season, which sat at 61.1 per cent.
Robinson may finally have a quarterback who he can rely on, and that should bode well for everyone involved.
7. If Lamar Jackson has to be a passer, fantasy GMs may be in trouble
The Kansas City Chiefs laid the blueprint for other teams to stop Lamar Jackson from being a dynamic quarterback by making him a passer in their big win on Monday Night Football.
If that continues, then you should be worried if you have Jackson on your roster.
There are some defences that are as talented as the Chiefs that the Ravens will play, including the Steelers twice, Titans (who shut down Jackson last year in the playoffs) and the Patriots.
Jackson ranks last in the NFL among starters in On Target Percentage, which is clearly a problem. It also doesn’t help your fantasy team that he also has the highest drop percentage in the league thus far. I’m not saying that he’s done and I’m aware he’s the reigning MVP, but it’s certainly something to keep an eye on.
If Jackson’s running game is limited, can you really rely on him as a passer from a fantasy standpoint?
8. In one-QB Leagues, Carson Wentz is not startable
We are only three years removed from Carson Wentz’s MVP-type season, but life comes at you fast. He is currently ranked as QB19 on the year and has seen his completion percentage dip to under 60 per cent while throwing six interceptions to only three touchdowns.
That just won’t get it done.
This is not entirely on Wentz either. His receiving corps should actually be referred to as his receiving corpse outside of Zach Ertz. His offensive line has been banged up all year and it seems like he’s always under fire.
Numbers are down across the board, including yards per game, yards per attempt and QB rating, while his interception rate is almost double his career worst, which happened in his rookie season.
Until we see the return of some of the key assets on the Eagles’ roster, Wentz should remain on your bench.
9. About that rookie learning curve…
Rookies are always intriguing in the off-season. Then the season starts and, a lot of the time, they’ll disappoint in the first few weeks of the season. That’s understandable considering the difference between the college game and the pros is incredible.
Some managers become impatient with rookies (which you can use to your benefit) and kick them to the curb. Nobody was letting go of Jerry Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb early on, but some didn’t have that same patience with Tee Higgins or Justin Jefferson.
Oops!
Jefferson absolutely blew up the Titans with a 7/175/1 line, good enough for a WR2 finish in both PPR and standard scoring, and has established himself as the WR2 in Minnesota’s offence behind Adam Thielen. Let’s not forget that Jefferson was an absolute star for LSU last season with Joe Burrow at the helm, so if you gave up on him, shame on you.
Higgins was another player who many thought would fit right into the offence in Cincinnati but had to leapfrog some pretty talented players in Tyler Boyd or A.J. Green in order to be a relevant fantasy asset. Fast forward to Week 3 where he ran more routes on Joe Burrow drop backs than both Boyd and Green. He’s also shown more speed than Green and could be a serious red-zone threat going forward.
10. How do you approach Broncos’ pass catchers?
That light at the end of the tunnel is actually a train. That’s what it must feel like in Denver after all the injuries they’ve had to deal with. Drew Lock was supposed to help make the offence more potent; Courtland Sutton was going to take the next step into becoming a top wide receiver in the league; and Phillip Lindsay was going to be part of a solid one-two punch with Melvin Gordon in the backfield.
If its and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a Merry Christmas.
After Lock’s injury, we saw Jeff Driskel take over the reins and, frankly, he sucked. Now enters Brett Rypien, nephew of Super Bowl-winning quarterback Mark Rypien, who is tasked with taking over an offence with some pretty good weapons.
He was 8-for-9 for 53 yards on Sunday but did throw an interception in mop-up duty against the Buccaneers on Sunday. Getting the Jets in the Thursday Nighter should give some comfort when it comes to playing Broncos skill position guys and the Broncos follow up the Jets with the Patriots and Dolphins.
I’m of two minds on this.
In one respect, the Broncos should be throwing enough that Noah Fant, Jerry Jeudy and Melvin Gordon should have flex appeal, at worst. But on the other hand, what if Rypien is even worse than Driskel? That could be an absolute tire fire.
This week’s game will give us an indication of what to do with the skill position players, but I would lean towards Fant still being able to be deployed as a startable tight end, Jeudy will remain a flex play as the team’s top wideout and Gordon’s receiving acumen should allow him to stay in the RB2 range.
Don’t forget to check out my “Love ‘Em, Leave ‘Em” picks for the weekend games on my Twitter, @MattSN590, every Friday!