Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai, Maharashtra by October 2nd week: IMD
Independent weather experts have held global weather factors responsible for the extended monsoon.
One of the wettest-ever monsoons for Mumbai can be expected to withdraw between October 9 and 15 from the state, according to the weather department.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in June this year, revised the date of southwest monsoon’s withdrawal from Mumbai by nine days. The new withdrawal date is October 9 against the previous one, predicted for September 29. This means the monsoon will linger a bit more than its normal schedule.
“Withdrawal from Rajasthan and surrounding areas of northwest India is expected by September 28 onwards. Going by the visible trend, a sharp decline in rain activity over central India can be expected from October second week onwards, and withdrawal over Mumbai first and (then) rest of Maharashtra can probably be expected by mid-October,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general, IMD.
KS Hosalikar, deputy director-general, western region, IMD said, “As per our extended rainfall forecast till October 22, there is significant rainfall reduction expected between October 9 and 15, indicative of monsoon withdrawal symptoms. There is a possibility of withdrawal starting around that time.”
Independent meteorologists said larger global weather factors were responsible for the marginally late withdrawal over the west coast and central India such as La Niña conditions - a phenomenon when the western Pacific Ocean warms up creating a low pressure area near Australia pulling winds from the Indian Ocean strengthening equatorial dynamics keeping southwest monsoon circulation active.
“Unseasonal showers during the first week of October can lead to crop damages along interior Maharashtra that farmers need to be wary about,” said professor Sridhar Balasubramanian, department of mechanical engineering and IDP climate studies, Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay.
Meanwhile, Maharashtra has recorded 18% excess rain so far this monsoon. Among weather stations along the Konkan coast, Mumbai suburbs have witnessed the second wettest monsoon ever with 3,681.4 mm rain between June 1 and September 27.
Mumbai suburbs have recorded 70% excess rain so far this season-- over 1,507.2 mm more rain than the Santacruz weather station generally receives over four months (June-September).
Similarly, all stations along Konkan have recorded excess rain with south Mumbai receiving 61% additional rain, Sindhudurg 54%, Ratangiri 25%, Thane 20%, Raigad 17%, and Palghar 14%.
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In other parts of the state, central Maharashtra received 32% excess rain with Ahmednagar recording a large excess of 82%. Marathwada, which had witnessed deficient rain in 2017 and 2018, received 31% excess rain this season. Across Maharashtra, only two districts have witnessed deficient rain – Akola (26% deficient) and Yavatmal (23% deficient) – both in Vidarbha district.
The monsoon withdrawal date for other prominent Maharashtra cities ranges between October 6 and October 11.