Lauren Brownlow

Brownlow's GIFs: Return of the Mack (to Tallahassee), and Duke-NC State

Posted October 16, 2020 2:36 p.m. EDT

Welcome back, ACC fans, and behold the wonder of my majesty of making picks as I went a robust 0-3 last week! To be fair, I was 7-2 before. It happens. But I will try to bounce back this week, and I'll do it by being a little more positive towards the Triangle teams. Well, two of the three, but two of them play each other, so.

That's right, NC State continues its tour of the Coastal when Duke comes to town for the first time since Thad Lewis tore up Russell Wilson and company. And North Carolina will head to Tallahassee to face a Florida State team that ... well, is playing football still. It's Mack Brown's first time facing off against Florida State since that famed 1997 top-five showdown.

Let's just get to the GIFs, shall we?

DUKE (1-4) AT NC STATE (3-1)

Time: 3:30 p.m.
TV: RSN

#ANALYSIS

Ah yes, the two in-state rivals that live a mere 20-some minutes away from each other that have played each other *checks notes* ... twice in the last 11 years. Makes sense! It doesn't, of course, but it's where we are. From a psychological standpoint, you've got an NC State team that is riding relatively high, a week away from playing a far bigger in-state rival in North Carolina, playing a Duke team that has given you plenty of reasons to overlook them. And from Duke's perspective, the Blue Devils *finally* got an elusive win. But Duke did still have four turnovers in the game and now has 19 on the season. In five games. NINETEEN! Here's a stat, though — best I could tell, those turnovers have resulted in points for the opponent exactly seven times. Some of those were defensive touchdowns after said turnovers. Duke's defense has done remarkably well after turnovers, considering how often they occur. Now, four of the empty trips have been end of half situations. But Duke's defense has bowed up time and time again to try to give the offense a chance. Duke has lost 10 fumbles in five games. That's too many, of course. NC State is at a +1 on the season, largely due to going +3 last week at Virginia. But NC State did go two games without forcing a turnover and had just one in its first three games. NC State has to keep riding that momentum and force a bunch more.

Turnovers aren't the only reason that Duke and Syracuse was a close game in spite of Duke gaining 645 yards to 286 for Syracuse and gaining 36 first downs to 11 for the Orange. Almost half (46%) of Syracuse's yards came on two big plays, but both (79 and 53) went for touchdowns. Duke's defense is aggressive, and that aggression can allow for a big play. NC State will need to hit those, and the offense has shown it is plenty capable. Syracuse is a mess right now, so to say they gained barely 3 yards on a play on their other 50 plays seems only slightly noteworthy in the context of this game. But it's still a nice win for a Duke defense that needed it.

These are two defenses who you like when you watch them play more than when you look at their numbers. Duke has the personnel and can get pressure on the quarterback and stop the run. But it also has let up 83 plays of 10 or more yards, which is 74th nationally out of 76 teams. NC State, though, isn't far behind, having allowed 70 such plays (68th nationally). But where they differ is Duke has let up six plays of at least 50 yards (NC State has let up three such plays), which is second-to-last nationally. These defenses have pieces you like and show toughness in difficult situations — after turnovers for Duke and at the goal line for NC State — but both can be susceptible to big plays.

Doeren has a task on his hands in making sure his team is focused on this game alone with North Carolina looming next week, and that it doesn't feel too good about itself and start assuming Duke will just turn it over willy nilly (although, I mean, fair assumption!). David Cutcliffe has a tough task too, though, trying to make sure relief and complacency don't set in after the team finally got its first win.

THIS GUY

Chase Brice. If I'd told you at the beginning of the year that it would have taken until Duke's fifth game for Brice to have more touchdown passes than interceptions in a game, you probably would have laughed. Duke has a total of 19 turnovers this year, and Brice is responsible for 11. Strangely enough, Duke has surrendered a grand total of 24 points off of those 11 turnovers, and 17 when you take out the defensive touchdown Syracuse had last week. But the fact remains that 11 is too many. He's fumbled the ball at least once in four of Duke's five games and lost a fumble in three of the five. He's thrown at least one interception in four straight games now and more than one in three of the last four. But after turning it over eight times in Duke's first three games, he has just three in the last two, and Duke has held on to two of his three fumbles in the last three games, which, progress? More importantly perhaps, he had just two picks in the last two games after throwing six against BC and Virginia. Things really are steadily getting better for him: his completion percentage is slowly inching up and he had his best of the season against Syracuse (57.9%), plus his best yards per attempt (7.1). That's not all that high, but Duke was able to sustain drives against the Orange and hit some big plays, neither of which has happened with regularity this year. Duke will have to do way more of that this week to give itself a chance, and Brice will be a big key. Just hang on to the dang football!

HERE'S A GUY

Devin Leary. Listen, a win is a win, and Leary isn't going to care what his stat line looks like. But it didn't look great against Virginia as the sophomore completed a season-low 44% of his passes for 184 yards (a season-low 7.4 per attempt, which I mean, for perspective, see Chase Brice above). He did have two touchdowns but his first interception of the year. On the bright side, he showed off what he can do with his legs more than he has to date, getting 29 yards on four rushes (7.3 per rush). Here's a crazy stat worth pondering as well: Duke is -11 in turnovers this season in spite of the defense forcing eight. Duke is tied for ninth nationally in turnovers forced AND IS STILL -11. Only five other teams that have forced more than five turnovers even have a negative turnover margin on the whole year, and the worst among them is -3. Turnover margin only gets ou so far — after all, Syracuse leads the nation in it — but you can't win a lot of games when you turn it over more than the other team. And Leary will have to make sure he can hit on the big play that Duke's defense will allow for while also not trying to force anything.

NARRATIVES

Duke Win: Two wins in a row?!

sorcery

Duke Loss:

here we go again

NC State Win:

latest poll

NC State Loss:

tripped

PREDICTION

NC State, 31-20. Take this for what it's worth, again, as the Wolfpack have continued to elude me. I have picked exactly one game of theirs correctly this year, and it was a loss. Although to be fair, I've predicted all of them as losses. Maybe this is a me problem. (It is.)

NO. 5 NORTH CAROLINA (3-0) AT FLORIDA STATE (1-3)

Time: 7:30 p.m.
TV: ABC

#ANALYSIS

In his weekly press conference, Mack Brown said that Florida State was the most talented team that UNC has faced so far. That elicited some eye rolls, but on paper, it's kind of true. Even with transfers and departures, there's talent on that roster. And the biggest mystery has been the defense. If there was any optimism to be had about FSU headed into the season, it was because of that side of the ball. Instead, it's been ... well, I mean, is allowing 6.51 yards per play bad? Is that frowned upon? On paper, this match up is a nightmare for Florida State. But it's worth considering two things: 1. The defense did not quit against Notre Dame and actually showed some fight late and 2. This defense does still have talented, NFL-caliber players on it that will want to get drafted. Remember when Solomon Thomas had a beastly game against North Carolina in the Sun Bowl and his highlight tape after he was picked was filled with him either harassing or sacking Mitch Trubisky? It's that kind of thought process. But this defense has three sacks through four games. That is ... horrendous. And the second half the fans were somewhat excited by, when Notre Dame scored just seven points? The Irish still piled up 5.1 yards per rush and averaged 6.1 yards per play, down from 10.1 in the first half and 12 per rush so that is ... something?

Florida State is used to being the team with the pressure on it, but as the Seminoles showed last week, when they go out and aren't facing a rival or aren't expected to win against a highly-ranked team, they are capable of performing better than they did against other teams. Just saying. It's a possibility. That, combined with the fact that North Carolina is not likely to have the other-worldly offensive success they had last week (not that they won't still score, because they will!) and this game at least ... could get interesting? I think?

As for on-field analysis? Normally, it would seem like the Tar Heels would be in trouble like they were last week as they'll be without Storm Duck and still remain thin in the secondary. But FSU's best receiver and one of the league's best in Tamorrion Terry won't play. That will hurt the Seminoles quite a bit. The switch to Jordan Travis has reignited FSU's offense (we'll get to him shortly), and that's where this game is going to be decided. North Carolina's offense is probably going to score, but which North Carolina defense will we see? The defense absolutely must get stops and/or force turnovers. For the second straight week, UNC will see a team that likes to run the football. The one bright spot for Florida State this year is that its offensive line has finally progressed into a relatively solid, if not spectacular, unit, which is a huge upgrade from the past few years. To average 3.83 yards a carry against Notre Dame's defense with your quarterback taking a lot of attempts is nothing to sneeze at. They're not Virginia Tech's offense, but make no mistake, they're capable of scoring. FSU has also turned it over just twice in the last two games after turning it over six times in the first two games. Mack Brown has said it for weeks now, but this defense absolutely has to start forcing turnovers. UNC has gone two games with just one turnover and is still at -3 on the season. The offense is going to turn it over from time to time, but the defense has gained just one in the last two games. This is the game where that will have to start to happen.

THIS GUY

Sam Howell. By now, plenty of you know the story, or at least know of it vaguely. But yes, Howell at one time was committed to play for Florida State. He ended up deciding to play for North Carolina when the Seminoles' offensive coordinator (and also UNC's former offensive coordinator) Walt Bell took the job as head coach at UMass. As this Inside Carolina piece points out, it wasn't just that. Mack Brown and the Tar Heels had to put in work as well. But Howell was as good as going to Florida State before changing the fortunes of both schools, arguably. Just like for Knight, this is going to be a personal experience for him. That can work for you or against you, of course. And it'll be personal for some on the opposite sideline as well. Last week, both Howell and UNC reminded the football world what they're capable of offensively. Considering the numbers FSU has put up defensively and the way North Carolina's offensive line is coming together, that should continue. But Howell can't fall back into the trap of trying to force the big play or hit the deep ball against a defense that, while it has underperformed, is capable of much better.

HERE'S A GUY

Jordan Travis. With the Seminoles struggling against Jacksonville State (and by struggling, I mean losing), it became abundantly clear that it was time for a change at quarterback. In came Travis, a sophomore, who has completed 25 of 41 passes for 414 yards and averaged over 10 years an attempt, passing for two touchdowns to one pick. He also has 30 rushing attempts for 144 yards in that stretch and two touchdowns, a pretty solid 4.8 per carry. North Carolina has struggled at times with mobile quarterbacks, and Travis is going to be used as a big part of FSU's run game. It's helped open up a lot of what they want to do. But what will the passing game look like without Terry, who caught nine passes for 146 yards at Notre Dame? Terry was targeted nine times against Notre Dame and caught all nine; the next-closest Seminole in terms of targets is Ontaria Wilson, who caught two for 22. Everyone else had one target each. And Notre Dame's excellent defense knew who the ball was going to and it still didn't matter. So the question for Travis and the offense will be who steps up to fill that void?

NARRATIVES

North Carolina Win:

nick weiler

North Carolina Loss:

greg jones

Florida State Win:

fsu hump

Florida State Loss:

fsu welp

PREDICTION

North Carolina, 45-33. If you like points, you came to the right place!

Last week: 0-3
Overall: 7-5

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Valspar Championship
Pos Name Score Thru
1 Peter Malnati -12 F
2 Cameron Young -10 F
3 Mackenzie Hughes -9 F
3 Chandler Phillips -9 F
5 Adam Hadwin -8 F
5 Ryan Moore -8 F
5 Xander Schauffele -8 F
5 Yechun Yuan -8 F
9 Christiaan Bezuidenhout -7 F
EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix
Pos # Name Start Pos
1 24 William Byron 1
2 20 Christopher Bell 4
3 54 Ty Gibbs 2
4 48 Alex Bowman 17
5 45 Tyler Reddick 3
6 13 AJ Allmendinger 14
7 1 Ross Chastain 6
8 17 Chris Buescher 20
9 8 Kyle Busch 16
Focused Health 250
Pos # Name Start Pos
1 17 Kyle Larson 1
2 21 Austin Hill 11
3 20 John Hunter Nemechek 20
4 00 Cole Custer 8
5 48 Parker Kligerman 12
6 2 Jesse Love 14
7 32 Austin Green 25
8 81 Chandler Smith 4
9 1 Sam Mayer 10
XPEL 225
Pos # Name Start Pos
1 11 Corey Heim 2
2 17 Taylor Gray 3
3 98 Ty Majeski 9
4 7 Connor Zilisch 1
5 45 Ross Chastain 5
6 1 Jack Hawksworth 6
7 99 Ben Rhodes 34
8 19 Christian Eckes 10
9 5 Dean Thompson 17