‘Backward’ states beat developed ones in bringing down Covid positivity rate

NEW DELHI: Amid the pandemic gloom, the ‘backward’ states of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and Assam have positive news to share. They have all brought down Covid-19 positivity rates (confirmed cases per 100 tests), measured over 14-day periods, to below 2% (October 5-18) — a remarkable achievement when more developed states are still struggling.
These states are also screening a higher number compared to hotspots like Maharashtra and Kerala, indicating that while raising testing levels will result in more cases being detected, over time — when combined with diligent contact tracing and containment — the prevalence of infection can be brought down as officials zero in on nascent clusters and worrisome hotspots.


Bihar is doing twice as many tests in 14 days as Delhi while UP, with the highest tests by any state, is conducting twice as many as Maharashtra. The UP administration has conducted a record 21 lakh tests in the last two weeks alone, and Bihar around 14 lakh. A caveat about Delhi is that while it is classified as a state, it is in many ways a large city.

Looking at tests per million, Delhi leads with 1,17,890 while Assam is at 81,961, Bihar at 43,754, Jharkhand at 41,886 and UP at 35,598. Maharashtra's tests per million is 43,494. A key indicator is the positivity rate which tells if a state is testing, tracking and containing enough. Here, Gujarat, Punjab, Telangana and Haryana seem to have reined in the spread. While Gujarat’s positivity rate has remained at 2% over the last two fortnights (measured separately), Punjab has brought it down from 5% (during September 22-October 5) to 2.4% during October 5-18. Telangana and Haryana have brought it down to 4%.

A TOI analysis of positivity rates (over 14-day periods) shows Maharashtra, despite having moderated, continues to remain in the danger zone with a positivity rate of 15% during October 5-18. In the previous fortnight, the rate was more than 18%.

A positivity rate of 5% or below over a 14-day period is considered a ‘green zone’ where a state can safely relax lockdown measures. Anything above that mark is considered a ‘red zone’. Also, higher the positivity rate, more likely that only the sickest are being tested and a large infected population remains untested.

The states with highest positivity rates (between October 5-18) were Maharashtra (15%), Kerala (14%), Chhattisgarh (10%), Rajasthan (10%) and Karnataka and West Bengal at 9% each.