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The lull in the weather over the South Peninsula would be broken over the next two days, once the 2020 South-West monsoon exits the landscape by Wednesday and the North-East monsoon (or the monsoon on retreat) announces its arrival almost simultaneously.
On Monday afternoon, however, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) withdrew its earlier outlook for the formation of a low-pressure area over the East-Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea by Thursday, which could have added heft to incoming North-East monsoon.
Pilot showers
Also on Monday afternoon, a cyclonic circulation lay over the South-East and adjoining Central Bay of Bengal, which has opened up a trough running across into South Tamil Nadu. This would trigger fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during the next five days.
The IMD projections suggest that instead of a low-pressure area, the prevailing cyclonic circulation would move in closer to the Tamil Nadu coast and weaken as a trough extending to the other end, upstream to the Gulf of Thailand, allowing seasonal easterly to north-easterly winds from the Bay to blow into India's East Coast.
Monsoon transition phase
The withdrawal line of the South-West monsoon pushed into Andhra Pradesh and Telangana on Monday and passed through Cooch Behar, Sriniketan, Ghatshila, Keonjhargarh, Nowrangpur, Elluru, Nalgonda, Nanded, Nasik and Dahanu, also linking the states of Jharkhand, Odisha, and Maharashtra, the IMD said.
In this manner, it exited the meteorological sub-division of the entire Vidarbha region; remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and the North Arabian Sea; most parts of Jharkhand; more parts of the plains of West Bengal; some parts of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan.
With the likely setting in of north-easterly winds over the Bay and the extreme South Peninsula, the exit may complete by Wednesday and the North-East monsoon rains could commence over the familiar grounds of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Karnataka and Kerala.
Also read: Comfortable reservoir levels in Southern Region
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