The ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is expected to “win” the upcoming midterm ... [+]
Despite President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)’s slow and desultory response to the myriad crises Mexico currently faces, the ruling National Regeneration Movement (Morena) is expected to “win” the upcoming midterm elections.
By Gavin Strong
The electorate will go to the polls on June 6, 2021 to vote for the complete renewal of the 500-member lower house of Congress, 15 state governors, and 1,926 municipal government officials in 30 states.
Many are pinning their hopes on a “defeat” for Morena in the midterms, the rationale being that a humbled AMLO would be inclined to rethink the more contentious aspects of his policy agenda. This is wishful thinking. Despite his administration’s ham-fisted response to the various crises currently facing Mexico, AMLO remains popular.
Coupled with a timely (if extremely tentative) economic recovery (Oxford Economics currently forecasts 5.3% GDP growth in 2021) – not to mention the advantages of incumbency, the weakness of the political opposition and opportune corruption-related developments – AMLO’s unwavering commitment to his base will likely underpin a Morena “victory”. However, this is in large part dependent on AMLO’s enduring popularity and therefore predicated on Morena’s success in including his name (literally or figuratively) on the ballot.
Phoenixlike
There are signs that the opposition National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) are getting their act together. In a timely boon, the PRI performed strongly in local elections that took place in Coahuila and Hidalgo states on October 18. In the former, the PRI won 49.31% of the vote winning all 16 electoral districts. This represented a resounding victory over the national ruling party, which won 19.34% of the vote; yet Morena’s disappointment was tempered by its success in increasing its support base in Coahuila and its supplanting of the PAN (which won just 9.9% of the vote) as the PRI’s principal rival there.
Meanwhile, in Hidalgo, the PRI won 32 of the state’s 84 municipal mayoralties, compared to nine for both Morena and the PAN. The PRI’s impressive performance confirms that it remains a potent political force at the local level and discussions of its inexorable demise are premature.
Divide and conquer
The PAN is still expected to represent the main threat to Morena hegemony come the midterms, but it has some work to do. In recent weeks, the Association of National Action Governors (GOAN) has become more assertive in its public criticism of the AMLO administration, above all for its (mis)handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in Mexico and the economic fallout, as well as its failure to hatch a tax reform plan that updates the “fiscal pact” between the federal government and its state-level counterparts.
The GOAN will devise and drive the PAN’s strategy for the midterms, prioritizing: the retention of its governorships in Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Nayarit and Querétaro; winning municipal mayoralties and federal electoral districts in its heartland (for example, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato); and the targeting of swing states governed by the PRI. This will likely translate into an increase in PAN legislators in the lower house, as well as in municipal mayors.
However, although the PAN is likely solidify its position as the main opposition party to Morena, it is unlikely to be able to pose a more significant threat to Morena at the national level. Coupled with the highly localized nature of the elections, the absence of an effective opposition unity candidate and platform will preclude a more effective campaign against AMLO and Morena.
Political (in)stability
A rising incidence of civil unrest is one of several latent threats to political stability in the coming months. Prospects for political stability beyond the midterms and throughout the rest of AMLO’s six-year term in office depend in part on both the result of these elections, as well as the government’s success (or lack thereof) in bringing about a rapid and robust economic recovery.
Policy epiphany?
Unlikely. Whatever happens, we expect AMLO to remain obdurately wedded to his statist policy agenda. This will be most evident in his monomaniacal, Gadarene rush to roll back former president Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-18)’s landmark energy reform bill despite persistent, vehement censure at home and abroad. But we’re not at panic stations, yet, and certain legal, legislative, political and international checks and balances should prevent Mexico from plummeting into irredeemable pariah status among investors.
The significance of the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement, which came into force on July 1, cannot be overstated. We expect the USCMA to provide the most important bulwark against the most capricious aspects of AMLO’s policy agenda, irrespective of the result of the election.
Gavin Strong is a Director for Control Risks based in Mexico City.
