Explained: Why Cyclone Burevi isn’t as strong as Cyclone Nivar

At 8.30 am on Wednesday, the cyclone was located 200 km east of Trincomalee in Sri Lanka, 420 km east-southeast of Pamban and 600 km east-northeast of Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu.

Under the influence of this cyclone, heavy to extremely heavy rain (over 204 mm) is forecast in Tamil Nadu and Kerala till December 5.

When will Cyclone Burevi hit the Tamil Nadu coast?

By Wednesday evening, the cyclone will intensify. As a cyclonic storm, Burevi is expected to first cross the Sri Lankan coast near Trincomalee some time during late Wednesday evening or night. Thereafter, it will trace a west-northwestwards track, reach Gulf of Mannar and inch closer to Indian mainland’s southernmost tip.

The Met department has forecast that Burevi will cross between Kanyakumari and Pamban as a cyclonic storm (wind speed 78 to 80 km/hour, gusting to 100 km/hour) during the afternoon hours of Friday.

Rescuers help transport people stranded in floodwaters due to Cyclone Nivar, on the outskirts of Chennai, Thursday, Nov. 26, 2020. (AP Photo: R. Parthibhan)

Will Cyclone Burevi be as strong as Cyclone Nivar?

Developed in the Bay of Bengal, the very severe cyclone Nivar, with wind speeds of 89 to 117 km/hr, had hit near Karaikal on November 25.

Unstable sea conditions, in the southwest region of Bay of Bengal, continue due to the recent crossing of Nivar. The overall sea conditions currently remain disturbed.

This is why meteorologists say there is a high possibility that Cyclone Burevi would not strengthen beyond the intensity of a cyclonic storm.

“Due to upwelling caused by Nivar, Cyclone Burevi will have limited intensity,” said an official from IMD.

When such consecutive systems develop in the same region of the ocean, the predecessor system leads to upwelling — the process in which cooler waters from lower ocean surfaces are pushed towards upper ocean surfaces.

In the absence of warm sea surface conditions, any cyclone, in this case Burevi, will not get enough fuel to intensify further while at sea.

The IMD has indicated that Burevi will remain a cyclonic storm (wind speed 62 to 88 km/hr) till December 5, before it weakens into a deep depression. 📣 Follow Express Explained on Telegram

Which areas will be affected by Cyclone Burevi?

Heavy to very heavy rainfall (64 to 204 mm) is forecast over Kanyakumari, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Tenkasi, Ramanathapuram and Sivagangai districts of Tamil Nadu, and Thirvananthapuram, Kollam, Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha districts of Kerala mainly on December 2 and 3.

Extremely heavy rain (more than 204 mm) is expected at isolated places in these districts on Thursday.

Northern districts of Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Lakshadweep and south coastal Andhra Pradesh will receive heavy rain till Saturday.

Squally winds with speeds ranging between 45–55 km/hr, gusting to 65 km/hr will be experienced off Tamil Nadu and Kerala coasts on Wednesday.

By Thursday, winds with speeds of 70 to 80 km/hr, gusting to 90 km/hr will blow over these southern districts, as the cyclone crosses over to land.

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