This photo taken on February 17, 2019 shows film director Guo Fan (L) and American actor Michael ... [+]
And why Wonder Woman 1984 could do blockbuster business in China...
Director Frant Gwo has announced, so says Variety, a sequel to his blockbuster sci-fi adventure The Wandering Earth. That New Years 2019 release was essentially China’s first big-budget sci-fi flick. The $50 million-budgeted Qui Chuxio/Li Guagjie/Wu Jing flick, about astronauts and rescue workers guiding the Earth away from an expanding Sun while attempting to prevent a collision with Jupiter, opened with $179 million over its opening weekend, ending its holiday week release with $298 million before legging out to $692 million in China alone.
That makes it the third-biggest release in China, behind the animated Ne Zha ($720 million several months later) and Wolf Warrior II ($854 million in 2017, and also starring Wu Jing). It’s no surprise that the adaptation of Liu Cixi’s 2000 novella is getting a follow-up, but it’s a little surprising that it won’t open until January of 2023.
So far, sequels tend to move faster in China then they do, comparatively speaking, in Hollywood. Detective Chinatown movies released in 2015, January of 2018 and (thanks to Covid-19) January of 2021 instead of January 2020. Wolf Warrior II opened just two years after its $90 million-grossing predecessor, and Monster Hunt 2 opened just under three years (February 2018) after the first Monster Hunt.
Since China’s theatrical industry has mostly returned to normal, it’s safe to speculate in terms of the commercial reception for this picture sans the Covid-19-related variables. Hell, China is among the few places where Wonder Woman 1984 can be expected to have a normal theatrical release when it opens December 18.
Wonder Woman 1984
Wonder Woman earned $90.5 million in China in the summer of 2017, and there’s tracking to suggest that the sequel could pull grosses between Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($135 million in 2019) and Captain Marvel-level ($154 million in 2019). DC and Marvel comic book superhero movies (like Venom and Aquaman) have skyrocketed in popularity since late 2018, and Wonder Woman 1984 may prove no exception.
Far from Home jumped 70% ($200 million) from Homecoming ($116 million) in China, as did Avengers: Endgame ($620 million) from Avengers: Infinity War ($359 million). A similar jump would give Wonder Woman 1984 a $155-$160 million cume. That’s speculative and optimistic, but if The Croods: A New Age can triple its predecessor’s $6.3 million debut, I’m not ruling anything out.
No, I don’t think The Wandering Earth 2 will be a breakout sequel. Wandering Earth earned a near-record Chinese cume the first time around. Monster Hunt 2 set a record for an opening day back in 2018 with a $97 million Friday, but it eventually earned “just” $356 million from a $187 million Fri-Sun debut. Monster Hunt earned $382 million in China back in 2015 and helped kick off the wave of Chinese blockbusters.
Although if Wandering Earth 2 merely drops as hard as Jiang Ziya ($240 million) from Ni Zha ($720 million), it’ll still earn $230 million in China alone. Conversely, Detective Chinatown 2 earned $541 million compared to $125 million for its predecessor while Wolf Warrior 2 earned ten times its predecessor. With China mostly back in gear, it’s all but certain that Detective Chinatown 3 (now opening February 12, 2021) will be next year’s biggest global grosser until Hollywood returns to some sense of normalcy.
The Eight Hundred ($469 million-and-counting) is this year’s biggest global grosser, marking the first time that a non-Hollywood flick has topped the global charts for a given year. My People My Homeland ($420 million) is just below Bad Boys for Life ($428 million). At best Raya and the Last Dragon (March 12) and No Time to Die (April 2) are the first potential Hollywood contenders for the crown.
