World Cup winners in 2018, France will find out on Monday its qualifying group for the 2022 World ... [+]
The preliminary draw, involving 55 European countries, will take place on Monday, in Zurich, at 12 noon. The nations will be drawn into 10 groups from A to J. Groups A to E will consist of 5 countries; the remaining groups will comprise 6 countries.
It has already been determined that the 4 countries playing in the 2021 UEFA Nations League finals - Italy, Belgium, France, and Spain - will be placed in 4 of the 5 smaller groups, A to E.
The countries within each group will play each other twice in a home-and-away format with games currently scheduled for the period March to November 2021. The winners of each group will book an automatic place in the World Cup that will be played in Qatar in late 2022.
The 10 runners-up will move into a play-off format and will be joined by two countries from the Nations League 2020/21 competition.
The two Nations League representatives will be the two best teams from that competition that fail to win their FIFA World Cup 2022 qualifying group or make the play-offs as runners-up.
The 12 play-off nations will be whittled down to three in March 2022, bringing Europe’s total representation at Qatar 2022 to 13.
As usual, the 55 entries have been seeded based on FIFA world rankings with 5 pots of 10 countries and 5 countries in pot 6.
Eden Hazard captain of Belgium - the #1 ranked country in the world according to FIFA. (Photo by ... [+]
Pot 1: Belgium, France, England, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands.
Pot 2: Switzerland, Wales, Poland, Sweden, Austria, Ukraine, Serbia, Turkey, Slovakia, and Romania
Pot 3: Russia, Hungary, Republic of Ireland, Czech Republic, Norway, Northern Ireland, Iceland, Scotland, Greece, and Finland
Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovenia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Bulgaria, Israel, Belarus, Georgia, and Luxembourg
Pot 5: Armenia, Cyprus, Faroe Islands, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Kosovo, Kazakhstan, Lithuania, Latvia, and Andorra
Pot 6: Malta, Moldova, Liechtenstein, Gibraltar, and San Marino
It is interesting to note that two countries are entering the draw for the first time, but both have played in the qualifying competition. It seems to make no sense but here’s the backstory.
Kosovo and Gibraltar missed the draw deadline 4 years ago but nonetheless UEFA parachuted both countries into the competition once FIFA had formally recognized the countries as full members.
Does seeding matter?
Given that seeding is based on past performances, it is not surprising that countries that make it to the World Cup, more times than not, come from the top 2 pots. But that does not mean that there haven’t been upsets along the way.
An analysis of UEFA World Cup qualifiers since the competition expanded to 32 countries for France 1998, shows that there has never been 100% qualifying success rate for Pot 1 nations.
What is more, at each of 6 World Cups since and including 1998, there has been at least two countries that were seeded in Pot 3 or lower that made it on to soccer’s biggest stage, against the odds.
2018
Pot 1 stumble; Netherlands, Romania, Wales (Italy also failed to qualify but was seeded in Pot 2)
Beat the odds; Serbia, Poland, and Sweden all from Pot 3
2014
Pot 1 stumble; Norway
Beat the odds; Bosnia and Herzegovina and Belgium both Pot 3
2010
Pot 1 stumble; Croatia and Czech Republic
Beat the odds; Slovenia, amazingly, from Pot 5 but there was also Denmark, Switzerland, and Serbia that emerged from Pot 3 and Slovakia from Pot 4.
2006
Pot 1 stumble; Turkey
Beat the odds; Ukraine from Pot 4, while Switzerland and Serbia and Montenegro punched above their Pot 3 seedings.
2002
Pot 1 stumble; Romania, Norway, Czech Republic, FR Yugoslavia, and The Netherlands
Beat the odds; Slovenia, from Pot 4 was joined by Pot 3 countries Croatia and the Republic of Ireland.
The Netherlands were the runner-up to Spain at the 2010 World Cup, but twice since 1998 they have ... [+]
1998
Pot 1 stumble; Russia, Sweden
Beat the odds; FR Yugoslavia from Pot 4, together with, Austria and Croatia from Pot 3.
Note: UEFA has bounced from numbering pots to using an alpha system. For ease of understanding, alpha has been converted to numeric for the purpose of the article.
Politics
Apart from seeding restrictions there are also political constraints. The following matchups are a no go: Armenia/Azerbaijan; Gibraltar/Spain; Kosovo / Bosnia and Herzegovina or Serbia or Russia and Ukraine/Russia.
Russia participation in Qatar, should it qualify, is dependant upon having a 4-year WADA ban imposed in 2019, overturned. The ban does not apply to UEFA competitions, including the qualifying stage for the World Cup.
Weather
Weather conditions, specifically severe winters mean that a group cannot include more than two of the following countries – Belarus, Estonia, Faroe Islands, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Russia, and Ukraine.
Air mile restrictions
Twenty possible pairings have been flagged as involving countries in excessive travel. This primarily impacts travel to and from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Iceland. In order to limit travel, no more than 2 pre-determined countries can be drawn into the same group.
