BJP may not hold on to 2019 Lok Sabha vote share: TMC survey

KOLKATA: BJP’s inability to hold on to its 2019 Lok Sabha vote share in five subsequent state polls is likely to be repeated in Bengal, a survey by Trinamool Congress shared with senior party leaders shows. The slide — which was eight per cent in Maharashtra and 22 per cent in Jharkhand — is likely to offset potential anti-incumbency slides by TMC. State BJP leaders have constantly maintained they will reach a 200-plus figure in the Bengal polls.
A senior leader said the survey — conducted telephonically over the past few weeks by a professional agency — indicated TMC gains in north Bengal where the party suffered severe reverses in the 2019 polls.
“Extrapolating the 2019 Lok Sabha results to assembly wins, BJP had taken a lead in all assembly segments in Darjeeling, Alipurduar and Cooch Behar. Trinamool had a lead in 164 seats with a 43% vote share and BJP had a lead in 121 seats with 40% vote share in the 294-seat assembly. In north Bengal, all seats in Darjeeling and some in Alipurduar and Cooch Behar, indicate considerable gains by the party since 2019,” said a senior leader.
In south Bengal, a party leader claimed, Bankura and East Burdwan showed significant gains for TMC. BJP had won almost all assembly segments in these two districts in 2019.
TMC’s Rajya Sabha MP Derek O’Brien said: “BJP works a lot with numbers. Nothing wrong with that. They know where they stand in Bengal. Therefore, this effort to create this perception. We are confident of the outcome.” “There are five parties contesting elections in Bengal — TMC, Left Front-Congress alliance, old BJP, new BJP and the tourist gang,” he added.
TMC, however, is experiencing some hiccups in Purulia, Hooghly and some parts in North 24 Parganas. A leader said: “The survey was also aimed to understand whether the party has lost ground in the Amphan-hit districts due to the opposition-triggered relief controversy. The results indicate that TMC is likely to do very well in the worst-hit South 24 Parganas district and most parts in North 24 Parganas, which were most hit by Amphan on May 20.”
“East Midnapore, till now, has not indicated any significant reverses. However, this will be constantly analysed due to the post-defection scenario,” he added.
The survey also indicated a high rating for chief minister Mamata Banerjee compared to the other potential opposition contenders. “In the 2019 Lok Sabha, the CM had campaigned extensively but it was not a mandate on her governance. It is now. In the 2019 Lok Sabha, it was a mandate for PM Narendra Modi,” a leader reasoned.