West Bengal 2021: Challenges facing both TMC and BJP in the developing identity politics in the upcoming elections.

A common image for power-brokering gone wrong within a political party is of mangled plastic chairs. It conveys a tiff, but also the care that comes with a friendly fight where no one gets too badly hurt. In 2021, the danger is much more real for West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC). At least three of its heavyweight leaders have moved to BJP. And not even TMC’s celebrity political strategist Prashant Kishor can say for sure where this series of switches will stop.
The switches have been seriously damaging for a party that runs on personality cults. Though the personality of Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has always been the final stop — and start — at the district level, TMC has depended on local stalwarts like the recently BJP-welcomed Suvendu Adhikari, former minister of transport in the Banerjee cabinet.

But Didi’s troubles are not just limited to a few heavyweights switching sides. In this assembly election, TMC is staring at one of the most complex meshes of social and political divisions, as well as assertions of identity that the state has seen post-Independence. Religion, caste, language have all come into play, and even fractures within them are being exploited for political dividends.

The latest among TMC’s worries is the entry of Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM). After a meeting with the influential Muslim cleric Pirzada Abbas Siddiqui earlier this month, things can change. Owaisi has said that he will back Siddiqui’s plans, and Siddiqui had earlier mentioned that he may contest from 45 seats in the state.

This equation can have major repercussions in a state that, according to Census 2011, has 27.1% Muslim population — the second highest among states after Assam (34.22%), and fourth if one counts the Muslim-majority Union territories of Lakshadweep (96.68%) and Jammu & Kashmir (68.31%) — with three districts, Murshidabad, Malda and Uttar Dinajpur, having more than 50% Muslims. With other districts with a significant Muslim population, Muslim voters are a deciding factor in at least 90 seats in the state.

From 2011, when TMC came to power unseating the Left Front, it has received the unwavering support of the Muslim community, which increased over the years. This helped the party in the polarised 2019 Lok Sabha elections, when BJP surged to a 40% vote share from around 17%, but TMC still managed to increase its vote share to about 43%. According to most surveys, while Hindu votes from different parties went to BJP, Muslims voted in ever larger numbers for TMC. In the upcoming election, any division of this base could sound alarm bells for the party.

Owaisi’s influence is considered to be limited to Urdu-speaking Muslims in Bengal. This community is concentrated in Kolkata and are loyal voters of TMC leaders. But in the larger canvas of campaigning that pits Bengalis against ‘outsiders’, it was this small Urdu-speaking minority that was reckoned to go with the ‘outsider’ Owaisi. But now, an alliance with ‘son of the soil’ Siddiqui changes that picture. AIMIM may win a few seats in south Bengal, and where it doesn’t, a split in Muslim votes could hurt TMC, points out Mohammad Reyaz of Aliah University, Kolkata.

The assertions of identity, however, are not just keeping TMC confused. BJP is yet to figure out a way to not walk into TMC’s ‘Insider vs Outsider’ campaign. In fact, the more it tries to come across as a local, home-grown force, the more BJP bungles — the latest being its spokesperson Gaurav Bhatia tutoring others about the ‘correct surname’ of Rabindranath Tagore/Thakur.

Even some of the fractures that had helped in the surge of BJP are now keeping everyone guessing. The Matua community, for instance, had come to West Bengal as refugees from East Pakistan during Partition. BJP’s pitch for citizenship through the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA) had managed to win over a section of the community, who could be a deciding factor in over 40 constituencies. But now their leaders have publicly expressed disappointment with BJP’s delay in the roll-out of the provisions of CAA. On the other hand, Mamata Banerjee’s pitch that Matuas are citizens of the state has gained more ground.

BJP, however, has more on its plate now than just social equations. In the violent landscape of Bengal politics, enemies at the local level are often permanent. With the big shifts from TMC to BJP, the former has to deal with tensions between its old-timers and new entrants. Though it is yet to spill out on the streets, there has been at least one incident of the aforementioned ‘mangled chairs’ in a party meeting.