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    First hint of normal monsoon from Aussie weather office

    Synopsis

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that while the La Nina phenomenon, which is associated with above normal rainfall in India, has peaked, its effects will be felt till the start of the monsoon season in June.

    rains BCCL
    MUMBAI: Australia’s weather bureau has said that neutral ENSO conditions are likely at the start of India’s southwesterly monsoon--the first indication of a normal rainy season this year which is vital to the country’s agriculture.

    The widely respected Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said that while the La Nina phenomenon, which is associated with above normal rainfall in India, has peaked, its effects will be felt till the start of the monsoon season in June.

    El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) refers to the warming of the surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Although the surface waters are currently cool, they are likely to get neutral over the next three months.

    "All of the surveyed models indicate that it is likely that this La Nina is at or past its peak, with most models forecasting a return to neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina) by the end of autumn," the BOM said.

    "The 2020–21 La Nina is likely to have reached its peak with respect to sea surface temperature patterns in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean," it said in a statement.

    This augurs well for India as about two-thirds of the people depend directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihood.

    Last year, India received 9% excess rainfall owing to La Nina conditions. It also saw a delayed monsoon withdrawal, which resulted in one of the wettest Augusts on recorded.

    La Nina’s counterpart, El Nino, often brings widespread drought with it to the subcontinent.

    The India Meteorological Department is expected to issue its formal monsoon forecast in April. Meteorologists say that a low probability of El Nino is certainly good news for the monsoon, although the complex weather system depends on many other factors.

    In September last year, IMD scientists had told ET that two consecutive years of excess rainfall (+10% in 2019, +9% in 2020) could see the start of an era of strong monsoons for the country.



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