I imagine the Eagles will release Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson this offseason. I don't suspect Waddle's broken ankle will impact his draft stock much. He was off to an incredible start — 25 receptions, 557 yards and four touchdowns in four games — after showing promise as a sophomore before hurting himself. Top needs: OL, DB, LB
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Two-round 2021 NFL mock draft: Who will your team take?
Everyone who watched Alabama's Heisman winner DeVonta Smith torch Ohio State for 215 yards and three touchdowns in the first half of the national championship game came away with the same conclusion: Smith is really good.
In fact, most would expect the talented, record-breaking Smith to be the first wide receiver's name they hear called in the first round of April's NFL draft. Indeed, it may be, but it's not a forgone conclusion despite his ridiculous 1,856 yards and 23 touchdowns.
There once was another record-breaking receiver who set the SEC on fire on his way to playing a significant role on a historically-good national champion. His name was Ja'Marr Chase and the ink had barely dried on his conference records before Smith broke out the Wite-Out. Chase had 1,780 yards and 20 touchdowns in 2019 before opting out of his junior season due to COVID-19. Remember Justin Jefferson was Robin to Chase's Batman at LSU.
There's also Smith's teammate Jaylen Waddle, the hobbled receiver who raced back from a broken leg to participate in the title game against the Buckeyes (and the career advice of most who watched). Waddle was limping all over the place, but still looked faster than the competition. He's the most dynamic of the three when he's 100 percent.
Personally, I see shades of Marvin Harrison and ... dare I say ... Jerry Rice (the highest compliment I can pay) in Smith's game.
He glides across the field like Fred Astaire on wet pavement, but Chase and Waddle are equally impressive in different ways and the draft process has a way of nitpicking world-class athletes until you forget why they were great in the first place.
You're going to hear Smith's explosiveness questioned — he wouldn't beat Waddle in a foot race.
You're going to hear his strength and size questioned — he's 175 pounds soaking wet with five-pound dumbbells in each pocket.
His slenderness will inevitability lead to questioning his durability.
None of this changes what will be an obvious conclusion come April: Smith is really good, and he's going to be drafted in the first round of the NFL draft, regardless if he's the first wide receiver taken or not.
FIRST ROUND:
1. Jacksonville (1-15) — Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson, Jr.
Lawrence will be the pick. The rebuild will get a boost with three other picks in the top 50. The Heisman runner-up is a good start and a much better building block than Blake Bortles or Blaine Gabbert. Top needs: QB, OT, CB
2. N.Y. Jets (2-14) — Zach Wilson, QB, BYU, Jr.
GM Joe Douglas has three options here. Take whoever he believes is the second best quarterback in this draft class (I currently believe it's Wilson by a hair), trade for a stockpile of picks (always my preference) or select a potential franchise left tackle in Penei Sewell (not a bad consolation prize). Maybe Douglas still isn't sold on Sam Darnold and potentially tries to deal him this offseason or he really likes this quarterback draft class. The competition level hasn't been the strongest, but Wilson's performance has been eye-opening — he passed for 3,692 yards (third in the nation) and 33 touchdowns (third in the nation) against only three interceptions. The Davey O'Brien semifinalist's arm talent and improvisation skills are equally impressive. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
3. Miami from Houston (4-12) — Ja'Marr Chase, WR, LSU, Jr.
It's scary that a 10-win team with such a good coach and plenty of young talent also has four picks in the top 50. The Dolphins are desperate for wide receivers who can get open. A lot of people are forgetting how good the 2019 Biletnikoff Award winner actually was during the Tigers' national title run. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
4. Atlanta (4-12) — Justin Fields, QB, Ohio St., Jr.
I imagine the new general manager will want to target Matt Ryan's heir apparent. Last time the Falcons had a top-five pick, they took Ryan third overall in 2008. Fields' heroic performance in the Sugar Bowl against Clemson almost wipes away his recent questionable decision making against Northwestern and Indiana, especially when he was under duress. His 385 yards and six touchdown passes against the Tigers while he was hurting underlines how much talent he has to work with. Top needs: Edge, S, RB
5. Cincinnati (4-11-1) — Penei Sewell, OT, Oregon, Jr.
It would be a personal affront to Joe Burrow if owner/GM Mike Brown doesn't pick an offensive lineman in the first round. Sewell being available here would be a best-case scenario for the Bengals. Otherwise, it wouldn't surprise me if they trade up to land the 2019 Outland Trophy winner — he opted out of this season due to the threat of COVID-19 as well. Sewell isn't flawless, but his potential is immense (he'll be 21 in October). Top needs: OT, CB, Edge
6. Philadelphia (4-11-1) — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama, Jr.
7. Detroit (5-11) — DeVonta Smith, WR, Alabama, Sr.
Matthew Stafford's future with his only team during an impressive professional career is up in the air, but I'll wait and see. Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones and Danny Amendola are all unrestricted free agents. The Heisman winner actually had a better statistical season than 2020 first-round picks Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy last year — who both were top-15 picks — leading the Crimson Tide with 1,256 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. Smith took his game to another level after Waddle was sidelined — he had 1,300 yards on 72 receptions and 19 touchdowns in his last eight games. Top needs: WR, LB, DT
8. Carolina (5-11) — Caleb Farley, CB, Virginia Tech, Jr.
I'd consider a quarterback here if Wilson or Fields were available. However, Rasul Douglas is clearly the weakest link in a young, up-and-coming defense. Farley is a physical press corner with elite athleticism and size (6-foot-2, 197 pounds) who also opted out due to COVID-19. Top needs: OT, LB, CB
9. Denver (5-11) — Micah Parsons, LB, Penn St., Jr.
Vic Fangio's best defenses have historically featured a roaming linebacker. Parsons is another elite prospect who opted out of the 2020 season, citing "the potential risk to the health and well-being" of his young son. Top needs: CB, Edge, LB
10. Dallas (6-10) — Rashawn Slater, OL, Northwestern, Sr.
Injuries and age are starting to erode what was once the Cowboys greatest strength, it's offensive line. Slater handled Chase Young as a junior while playing left tackle and didn't allow a single sack the entire season. He's versatile and talented enough to play all five offensive line positions. Slater opted out of this season due to COVID. Top needs: Edge, DB, OL
11. N.Y. Giants (6-10) — Gregory Rousseau, Edge, Miami, So.
The Giants' pass rush was almost non-existent the last month of the season. It's been almost two decades since a Hurricane defensive end was taken in the first round (Jerome McDougle in 2003). Rousseau finished with 15.5 sacks in 13 games as a redshirt freshman, but opted out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns. Top needs: OT, Edge, LB
12. San Francisco (6-10) — Patrick Surtain II, CB, Alabama, Jr.
The 49ers currently don't have a corner under contract after this season. Surtain, a former five-star recruit, has NFL DNA (father was an All-Pro corner who played 11 seasons) and prototypical traits. He was recently named the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Top needs: OL, DB, Edge
13. L.A. Chargers (7-9) — Christian Darrisaw, OT, Virginia Tech, Sr.
The Chargers were picking fourth overall before finishing the season with a four-game win streak. Three of their five starters on the offensive line are scheduled to hit free agency — in addition to injured Pro-Bowler Mike Pouncey. Darrisaw could find his way into the top 15 if he tests as well as I believe he will during the draft process (assuming we are able to have a combine or pro days). Top needs: OL, TE, Edge
14. Minnesota (7-9) — Daviyon Nixon, DL, Iowa, Jr.
Coach Mike Zimmer didn't hold back when he called his defense the "worst one I've ever had." Nixon, the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, was named a consensus All-American. He'd pair nicely with Danielle Hunter to revitalize a once fearsome pass rush. Top needs: DL, FS, OL
15. New England (7-9) — Mac Jones, QB, Alabama, Jr.
Cam Newton isn't the long-term answer at quarterback and Bill Belichick clearly doesn't believe in Jarrett Stidham. Jones benefits from a great supporting cast in Tuscaloosa, but he's an accurate, decisive passer who had 4,500 yards (first in the nation), 41 touchdown passes (second in the nation) against only four interceptions and a QBR of 96.1 (first in the nation). He finished third in the Heisman Trophy race. Top needs: QB, WR, LB
16. Arizona (8-8) — Kyle Pitts, TE, Florida, Jr.
There are other needs, but adding a matchup nightmare like Pitts to the Kyler Murray-DeAndre Hopkins dynamic duo would generate instant ulcers to most defensive coordinators in the NFL. The Mackey Award winner is definitely more receiver than complete tight end, but he's a valuable chess piece either way — his 17.9 yards per reception and 12 touchdowns in only eight games are indicative of that. Top needs: CB, OL, Edge
17. Las Vegas (8-8) — Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan, Sr.
For as much draft capital as the Raiders have spent recently on their defense, you'd expect better results by now. There have been flashes, but nothing concrete yet. Paye is an upside pick who hadn't produced at an elite level before (he only had 9.5 sacks in his first three seasons in Ann Arbor), but there's athletic indicators he will continue to improve as a pass rusher. According to Pro Football Focus, Paye had a 26 percent pass-rush win rate — fourth-best of any Power 5 edge defender in the country — which is typically defined as how often a player beats his blocker within 2.5 seconds. He's already an impressive run defender against the spread offense, which is becoming increasingly important in the NFL. Top needs: DL, OG, DB
18. Miami (10-6) — Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB, Notre Dame, Sr.
The Dolphins are only a few players away from fielding a potentially elite defense. Owusu-Koramoah is an explosive athlete who can make plays from sideline-to-sideline. The ACC Defensive Player of the Year also was won the Butkus Award (nation's top linebacker) and was a consensus All-American. Top needs: WR, OL, LB
19. Washington (7-9) — Kyle Trask, QB, Florida, Sr.
I'm going to go out on a limb and say Taylor Heinicke isn't the quarterback of the future here. Trask has legit pocket presence and a surprising touch for such a strong arm. He had a horrible Cotton Bowl against Oklahoma, but that doesn't erase a Heisman-worthy season (he finished fourth). He had 43 touchdown passes (first in the nation) against only eight interceptions, 4,283 passing yards (second in the nation) and a QBR of 88.3 (sixth in the nation). Top needs: OL, WR, QB
20. Chicago (8-8) — Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL, USC, Jr.
The pick is a wide receiver if Allen Robinson leaves during free agency. Otherwise, the offensive line needs to be upgraded. Vera-Tucker was one of the best offensive tackles in the country, but could also shine on the interior in the NFL. Top needs: OT, WR, QB
21. Indianapolis (11-5) — Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota St., So.
A wild-card loss to the Bills could have been Philip Rivers final game and Jacoby Brissett is scheduled to be a free agent. A showcase game against Central Arkansas didn't really do Lance's draft stock any favors, but there's too much arm talent and playmaking ability to deny here. The measurables check every box. Top needs: QB, Edge, CB
22. Tennessee (11-5) — Carlos Basham Jr., Edge, Wake Forest, Sr.
The Titans finished with only 19 sacks this season — only the Bengals and Jaguars had fewer. Basham is a strong, athletic, productive pass rusher who can disrupt an offense. He had 11 sacks and 18 tackles for loss as a first-team All-ACC selection in 2019 and opened 2020 with a sack in each of his first five games. Top needs: OT, WR, Edge
23. N.Y. Jets from Seattle (12-4) — Jaycee Horn, CB, South Carolina, Jr.
The Jets go defense after addressing the offense with their earlier pick. Horn — his father Joe was a Pro Bowl wide receiver — is a very talented press corner with elite speed, good size (6-foot-1, 205 pounds) and can make plays in run support. Top needs: QB, Edge, DB
24. Pittsburgh (12-4) — Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson, Sr.
The Steelers are facing difficult decisions at almost every major position after this season, but it was clear they were a one-dimensional offense for most of 2020 and James Conner could leave in free agency. I was shocked when Etienne decided to return for his senior season, but he re-enforced everything I liked about him the previous three seasons. He's a three-down threat who has an uncanny nose for the end zone. Top needs: OT, Edge, QB
25. Jacksonville from L.A. Rams (10-6) — Samuel Cosmi, OT, Texas, Jr.
Cam Robinson is a free agent and Cosmi is likely an upgrade anyways. You can't develop a young quarterback if you don't have a decent offensive line. It's science. Cosmi dominated in 26 games at right tackle. He did the same at left tackle this season. Top needs: QB, OT, CB
26. Cleveland (11-5) — Zaven Collins, LB, Tulsa, Jr.
The Browns need to upgrade their pass rush outside of Myles Garrett, but they also need to improve their linebacker corps. Collins has the size (6-4, 260), athleticism and positional flexibility that will cause most defensive coordinators to drool. He received the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, awarded by the Football Writers Association of America to the top defensive player in college football. Top needs: Edge, LB, S
27. Tampa Bay (11-5) — Christian Barmore, DL, Alabama, So.
Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches and Steve McLendon will all be free agents. Most analysts considered Barmore a potential first-rounder on potential alone. He gave everyone a glimpse of that high ceiling by dominating Notre Dame and Ohio State — two of the best offensive lines in the nation — in the College Football Playoffs. Top needs: Edge, WR, DT
28. Baltimore (11-5) — Rashod Bateman, WR, Minnesota, Jr.
This is how the Ravens consistently outperform other teams in the draft. Great players who should be drafted higher fall to them consistently for a myriad of reasons. Bateman is a big receiver (6-2, 210) with great hands and an excellent route-runner who was eighth in the country with 20.3 yards per catch in 2019. He would pair nicely with Marquise Brown. Top needs: Edge, OL, WR
29. New Orleans (12-4) — Eric Stokes, CB, Georgia, Jr.
The verdict is still out on if Drew Brees' successor is currently on the roster with Taysom Hill showing his upside against Atlanta, but regressing against Denver and losing to Philadelphia. But there aren't any quarterbacks available worth taking here. Upcoming tough cap decisions could lead to a depleted secondary. Stokes is built thin, but remains an impressive athlete who maintains his physicality and played better than almost anyone at the position in the entire nation. Top needs: QB, DL, CB
30. Buffalo (13-3) — Jaylen Mayfield, OT, Michigan, Jr.
Dominant right tackle Daryl Williams is one of three starting offensive lineman headed for free agency. Mayfield features the athletic ability and size combo that makes offensive line coaches salivate. Top needs: CB, OT, LB
31. Green Bay (13-3) — Nick Bolton, LB, Missouri, Jr.
The Packers run defense has not improved by much and remains a significant weakness of a potential title contender — they're allowing 4.5 yards per carry. A converted safety, Bolton is a thumper in the middle who is equally adept in coverage and was a finalist for the Butkus Award. Top needs: OL, LB, CB
32. Kansas City (14-2) — Wyatt Davis, OG, Ohio St., Jr.
The greatness of Patrick Mahomes covers up a lot of warts. The Chiefs offensive line needs an infusion of talent. Davis is a system-proof, plug-and-play starter at the next level and a potential All-Pro. Top needs: WR, OL, Edge
SECOND ROUND
33. Jacksonville — Tyson Campbell, CB, Georgia, Jr.
34. N.Y. Jets — Jayson Oweh, Edge, Penn St., So.
35. Atlanta — Najee Harris, RB, Alabama, Sr. (pictured)
36. Miami from Houston — Teven Jenkins, OL, Oklahoma St., Sr.
37. Philadelphia — Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame, Sr.
38. Cincinnati — Azeez Ojulari, Edge, Georgia, So.
39. Carolina — Alex Leatherwood, OL, Alabama, Sr.
40. Denver — Asante Samuel Jr., CB, Florida St., Jr.
41. Detroit — Alim McNeill, DL, NC State, Jr.
42. N.Y. Giants — Dillon Radunz, OT, North Dakota St., Sr.
43. San Francisco — Creed Humphrey, OL, Oklahoma, Jr.
44. Dallas — Trevon Moehrig, S, TCU, Jr.
45. Jacksonville from Minnesota — Dylan Moses, LB, Alabama, Sr.
46. New England — Chris Olave, WR, Ohio St., Jr.
47. L.A. Chargers — Joseph Ossai, Edge, Texas, Jr.
48. Las Vegas — Trey Smith, OL, Tennessee, Sr.
49. Arizona — Jaelan Phillips, Edge, Miami, Jr.
50. Miami — Chazz Surratt, LB, North Carolina, Sr.
51. Washington — Terrace Marshall Jr., WR, LSU, Jr.
52. Chicago — Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, USC, Jr.
53. Tennessee — Pat Freiermuth, TE, Penn St., Jr.
54. Indianapolis — Rashad Weaver, Edge, Pittsburgh, Sr.
55. Pittsburgh — Walker Little, OT, Stanford, Sr.
56. Seattle — Hamsah Nasirildeen, S, Florida St., Sr.
57. L.A. Rams — Patrick Jones II, Edge, Pittsburgh, Sr.
58. Tampa Bay — Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue, So.
59. Baltimore — Landon Dickerson, OL, Alabama, Sr.
60. Cleveland — Andre Cisco, S, Syracuse, Jr.
61. New Orleans — Marvin Wilson, DL, Florida St., Sr.
62. Buffalo — Shaun Wade, CB, Ohio St., Jr.
63. Green Bay — Jackson Carman, OT, Clemson, Jr.
64. Kansas City — Kadarius Toney, WR, Florida, Sr.
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