NH Primary Source: Can Republicans in NH, nationally put Trump-inflamed divisions behind them?
New Hampshire Primary Source gives you breaking and behind-the-scenes political news by John DiStaso, the most experienced political writer in the state and a recipient of a New Hampshire Press Association Lifetime Achievement Award. To sign up for WMUR's weekly New Hampshire Primary Source and political email newsletter, which will be delivered to your inbox on Thursday at 6 a.m., click here.
LOOKING AHEAD. President Donald Trump professed great affection for New Hampshire, the site of his first electoral victory – the 2016 first-in-the-nation Republican presidential primary.
But it was a bittersweet relationship. Some of his most loyal political friends and supporters are Granite Staters, but at the same time, Trump was rejected here – twice – in general elections.
The divisions of the Trump era remain in the Granite State and are expected to continue for many months, if not years. The political and rhetorical gap between the two political parties are wider than at any time in the past.
Associate Political Science Prof. Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire says while passions for and against Trump are intense here, just as they are everywhere, overall, New Hampshire was not as kind to Trump as he had hoped.
“In New Hampshire, Trump did not have the popularity that many people thought he did and that he did in other parts of the country,” Smith said.
The UNH Survey Center has not polled Trump’s standing among Granite Staters since late November, when 43 percent viewed him favorably and 57 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Interestingly, 43 percent was his approval rating in New Hampshire in February 2017 – the first UNH Survey Center poll conducted on Trump after he took office. Only once did more Granite Staters view him favorably than unfavorably – in January 2020 – when 50 percent viewed him favorably and 46 percent viewed him unfavorably.
“In his first primary, he received 35 percent in a crowded field, which means 65 percent did not vote for him, and he was not able to win the general election in a state could that have been expected to have gone with a new administration after two terms of Barack Obama.
“His lack of popularity played out in 2018, when Democrats won in the midterms, and this year of course, he won the primary overwhelmingly, but then did worse in the 2020 general election than he did in 2016,” Smith said.
Despite the debacle, Republicans in the state rode Gov. Chris Sununu’s popularity and overwhelming victory to win majorities in the New Hampshire House and Seante, and on the Executive Council.
“Republicans in New Hampshire were saved by Chris Sununu, who became the alternative model of the GOP to Donald Trump, as the old New England Republican Party, economically conservative on taxes and fiscal issues but nowhere near as ideological,” Smith said.
“That’s why there is no love lost between the Trump Republicans and Chris Sununu.”
“It is going to be very hard for Republicans to unite after Donald Trump, both nationally and in New Hampshire,” Smith maintained.
“The kind of people who are supportive of the old Republican Party are not as ideological and are not diehard Trump supporters,” he said. “Within the party, that group still has, and will have, a loud voice and won’t go away anytime soon.”
“Nationwide, the party has the same problem. It’s going to take a long time for this to wash through, but it’s important to remember it wasn’t Trump who created the issues that led him to win in 2016,” Smith said. “He figured out where the anger was and ran to the front of the parade.”
“Those issues are still there,” Smith said. “The economic dislocation of the middle class in much of America. Stagnation of salaries and wages and struggling industries – that hasn’t gone away.”
Smith said that while the Republican Party is divided either for or against Trumpism, Democrats face their own ideological divide – far left versus a more moderate brand of progressives -- now that they have defeated Trump and have taken control of the U.S. Senate and House, and the White House.
“The Republican Party is in a mess because of Donald Trump and the Democratic Party is in a mess despite Donald Trump,” Smith said. He predicted the result of the 2022 midterm election could swing back to the GOP and that campaign season begins today.
'AMAZING' FOUR YEARS. NHGOP Chair Stephen Stepanek, one of Trump’s earliest supporters in New Hampshire, is a strong believer in the now-former chief executive today, just as he was in 2015, when he hosted the first house party for the then private businessman-turned-politician. Click here.
GREGG SPEAKS OUT. A traditional “old school” New England Republican, former Sen. Judd Gregg couldn’t bring himself to voting for his former 18-year Senate colleague, Democratic Joe Biden. Click here.
‘HE HIT IT OUT OF THE PARK,’ LONGTIME FRIEND SAYS. Like many of Joe Biden’s multitude of friends in the Granite State, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice John Broderck quietly rejoiced in the privacy of his home as the 46th president took the oath of office Wednesday. Click here.
WATCH FOR CAMPAIGN 2024 TO BEGIN SOON. Veteran Republican political consultant Jim Merrill has advised several presidential candidates, including Sen. Marco Rubio, now-Sen. Mitt Romney and President George W. Bush. Click here.
BYLAW AMENDMENTS PROPOSED. When the members of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee meet virtually on Saturday, they will consider proposed bylaw amendments in addition to choosing officers for the next two years. Click here.
UPCOMING BALLOTING. There are contested elections in four races for officers of the New Hampshire Democratic Party as members look ahead to email or mail-in voting, with the results to be announced at the party’s annual meeting March 14. Click here.
UNCONTESTED RACES. The Republican State Committee will have contested races for chair and vice chair during Saturday’s annual meeting – as we’ve reported. Click here.
BUCKLEY CAMPAIGN CO-CHAIRS. After announcing his candidacy for an eighth term as chair of the New Hampshire Democratic Party, Raymond Buckley is unveiling the first 12 party activists who are co-chairing his campaign. Click here.
LETTER CIRCULATED BY NEA-NH. More than 300 current and former teachers, teachers, school staff members and elected officials have signed a letter to Gov. Chris Sununu asking that they be moved up to Phase 1B in the COVID-19 vaccination protocol. Click here.
(Follow John DiStaso on Twitter: @jdistaso)