Another new form of the coronavirus, whose emergence in India is coinciding with a surge in cases, has been detected in the San Francisco Bay Area by Stanford University.
One confirmed case and seven presumed cases of the Indian variant were found by Stanford’s Clinical Virology Laboratory, which has developed tests to detect the presence of viruses already spreading around the world. The cases involved Stanford patients.
“This demonstrates the rapid spread of this variant,” said Dr. Ben Pinsky, medical director of the laboratory.
The discovery of the strain, along with growing numbers of other versions of the virus, comes as no surprise to experts — viruses ignore international borders, traveling with people.
But the variant – dubbed “double mutant” by Indian media — carries two worrisome mutations in a key part of the virus which help it latch onto cells.
COVID-19 cases in India had been falling since September. But now an explosion of cases is occurring in the Maharashtra state, on India’s southwestern coast, which includes Mumbai. The region reported a 55% increase in this past week.
Authorities suspect a link between the variant and the surge, although there are yet no lab studies of transmissibility. An analysis of samples collected from the Maharashtra region showed a recent rise in viruses with the variant’s two mutations, E484Q and L452R.
Mumbai, the country’s financial, commercial and high-tech center, has close ties to the Bay Area.
The discovery of cases here underscores the need for accelerated vaccinations to prevent spread, as well as continued mask-wearing, social distancing and isolation of sick people.
“Right now, we’re in a race between the variants and the vaccine,” Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody said on Thursday.
Dr. Kavita Patel, a fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C., told CNBC that the Indian variant “is something to watch very closely, and something that will not be limited to India.”
“This double mutation… is incredibly serious,” said Patel, who served as a policy director in the Barack Obama administration. “It is probably just the tip of the iceberg in what we would worry about in Asia.”
The Stanford lab discovered the mutations by scanning viral genetic sequences of patients – not just in their Peninsula-based facilities, but from their many clinics around the Bay Area. The university did not disclose the locations of the new strain.
One case has been fully sequenced. In the other seven cases, sequencing is still underway, with results expected next week.
It is the latest in a growing and diverse field of viral variants. In life’s Darwinian struggle, the most successful viruses are those that spread quickly and can dodge our defenses. Over time, they become dominant.
One variant, first discovered in Britain, now accounts for 851 cases in the state, according to the California Department of Public Health.
But California’s two related strains of its own homegrown version of the virus — B.1.427 and B.1.429, representing over 9,000 known cases — continue to dominate.
According to the California Department of Public Health, the tally of so-called “variants of concern” in California as of April 1 include:
• B.1.1.7 (“UK strain”): 851 cases
This variant has been found to cause a 30% to 50% increase in transmission. It is also likely to increase the risk of severe disease and death. It does not appear to reduce the effectiveness of vaccines or antibody treatments.
• B.1.351 (“South African strain”): 10 cases
The variant appears to be less vulnerable to vaccines. It has been found to cause a 50% increase in transmission. It appears to reduce the effectiveness of antibody treatments.
• P.1 (“Brazilian strain”): 35 cases
This strain may have moderately decreased response to some antibody treatments.
• B.1.427 (“West Coast Strain”): 3,072 cases
• B.1.429 (“West Coast Strain”): 6,287 cases
The variants, which are genetically linked, are associated with an approximately 20% increase risk of transmission. These strains also seems to cause a significantly decreased response to some antibody treatments.
The tally of so-called “Variants of interest” in California as of April 1, with unknown clinical and epidemiologic significance, include:
• B.1.526 (“New York Strain”): 33 cases
• B.1.525 (“New York Strain”): 3 cases
• P.2: (second “Brazil strain”): 22 cases
These cases are based on a sampling of SARS-CoV-2-positive specimens and do not represent the total number of infections due to the strains that may be circulating in California.
