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Jrue Holiday’s Extension Further Depletes Heralded 2021 NBA Free-Agent Class

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At one point, the 2021 NBA free-agent class had the potential to reshape the league for years to come.

But over the past few months, it has lost much of its luster.

The class took another hit over the weekend when Jrue Holiday agreed to a four-year extension worth up to $160 million with the Milwaukee Bucks, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. The Bucks now have Holiday, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton under contract at least through the 2022-23 season, giving them a strong core for the next few years.

The Bucks already took away the biggest prize of the 2021 free-agent class when they signed Antetokounmpo to a five-year supermax extension in December. Removing Holiday from the market is another blow to teams that were planning to go on a spending spree this summer.

Those two aren't the only notable would-be free agents who have instead re-signed with their current teams in recent months.

LeBron James signed a two-year, $85.7 million extension with the Los Angeles Lakers in early December, and Paul George followed suit with a four-year, $176 million extension with the Los Angeles Clippers a week later. Rudy Gobert also signed a massive five-year, $205 million extension with the Utah Jazz shortly before the 2020-21 season began.

The restricted-free-agent class took even more of a hit in the month leading up to the season. De'Aaron Fox, Jayson Tatum and Bam Adebayo signed five-year max extensions with their respective teams, while OG Anunoby (four years, $72 million), Derrick White (four years, $70 million), Jonathan Isaac (four years, $69.9 million), Markelle Fultz (three years, $50 million), Luke Kennard (three years, $41.2 million), Monte Morris (three years, $27.8 million) and Kyle Kuzma (three years, $39 million) also inked extensions.

That's a ton of talent off the market before free agency even begins.

All hope is not lost for teams that hope to make a free-agent splash, though. While the market is suddenly short on transformative superstars, there's still an array of established veteran talent and young, high-upside players to pursue.

Kawhi Leonard will be far and away the biggest prize if he declines his $36.0 million player option for the 2021-22 season. Back in December, he hinted that he would test the free-agent waters if he made it through the season healthy.

“Just for my situation right now, I’m just focused on this season,” Leonard told reporters. “Not saying I’m going anywhere else or staying here, but I’m just focused on the season. Obviously, if I’m healthy, the best decision is to decline the player option, but that doesn’t mean I’m leaving or staying."

If the Clippers suffer another embarrassing collapse in the playoffs—particularly with George's health a question mark at the moment—it could convince Leonard to develop a wandering eye and begin looking elsewhere.

Chris Paul isn't likely to turn down his $44.2 million player option, particularly given how well the Phoenix Suns have fared with him this year, so the next-best free-agent options may be a pair of fellow veteran point guards.

Several teams pursued Toronto Raptors point guard Kyle Lowry ahead of the trade deadline, but the Raptors ultimately stood pat and kept him. If the 35-year-old isn't convinced that Toronto can get back on track next year after a lost season, a number of title hopefuls figure to make a run at him again.

Mike Conley will also be a free agent, although he seems far less likely to leave the Jazz than Lowry is with the Raptors. In February, he told Tony Jones of The Athletic that he doesn't plan on going anywhere this summer.

“Utah’s got me,” Conley said. “I was talking about this to my wife recently. We love it here. I don’t think I can go anywhere else that plays the way we play. We’ll see this offseason, because when that time comes there will definitely be a lot of chatter. But, from where I sit right now, this team is so unique, in the way we play. And everyone has bought into what we want to do on both ends of the floor.”

Victor Oladipo and DeMar DeRozan are the other two unrestricted free agents with All-Star upside, although both will enter the offseason with question marks. Oladipo's injury history may give teams pause about offering him a hefty deal—and he seems unlikely to leave Miami unless the Heat don't want to re-sign him—while DeRozan is on the wrong side of 30 and has never been a high-volume three-point shooter.

Beyond that, the rest of the free-agent market is largely littered with complementary starters such as Dennis Schroder, Andre Drummond, Spencer Dinwiddie, Evan Fournier and Will Barton. All of them can contribute to winning teams, but none figure to be the missing piece for a title contender.

At this point, the real strength of the free-agent class is in restricted free agency. John Collins, Lonzo Ball and Jarrett Allen are the headliners, but Gary Trent Jr., Duncan Robinson, Devonte' Graham and Bruce Brown could all be heading toward significant paydays as well. However, their incumbent teams have the right to match any offer sheet they sign, so teams can't bank on landing them barring extreme overpays.

The New York Knicks, Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs could carve out $50-plus million in cap space this summer, and a number of teams could get north of $20 million. They'll still be able to bolster their rosters in free agency, but the market is now largely devoid of superstars outside of Kawhi.

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