Covid spike may affect turnout as Bengal polls enter 7th phase today

KOLKATA: The sharp rise in Covid cases across Bengal poses a challenge for voters in the seventh round of Bengal elections in which 34 assembly seats are going to polls on Monday, including four in south Kolkata.
Elections in Jangipur and Samserganj seats in Murshidabad have been postponed to May 16 following the demise of candidates due to Covid.
What is worrying parties is whether the rising pandemic graph will have an impact on voter turnout in the last two phases when the state has witnessed a fairly high poll percentage in the last six rounds.
Assembly seats going to the seventh round of polls have a diverse demography. As many as 15 seats spread over Murshidabad and Uttar Malda are those where minorities are a majority. In Malatipur, Ratua, Chanchal, Harishchandrapur, Habibpur and Gazole in Uttar Malda and the nine seats of Farakka, Suti, Raghunathganj, Sagardighi, Lalgola, Bhagabangola, Raninagar, Murshidabad and Nabagram in Murshidabad, the polarisation is likely to go in favour of non-BJP parties.
Trinamool and Congress are desperate to bag the major pie of the minority votes. In Sagardighi, Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM is targeting the same population. Abbas Siddique’s ISF is also a contender in Raninagar. BJP can at best hope that the division among minority votes works to its favour.
Another important feature is the Murshidabad seats of Suti, Raghunathganj, Lalgola, Bhagabangola and Raninagar, Habibpur seat in Malda and three Dakshin Dinajpur seats of Balurghat, Gangarampur and Tapan all are located along the Indo-Bangladesh border.
The Congress vote bank on Adhir Chowdhury’s Murshidabad turf and also in Uttar Malda is at risk because the minorities, insecure as they are, are likely to vote for the party they think would be able to protect themselves. This can make it tough for Congress candidate Mainul Haque, the Congress candidate from Farakka winning the seat since 1996. The situation looks similar for Abu Hena of Congress, winning the Lalgola seat since 1991.
It’s again a Congress versus Trinamool battle in Chanchal with BJP eyeing the 30% Hindu votes. Congress is faced with a tough challenge from Trinamool on one hand and Forward Bloc on the other at Harishchandrapur. Trinamool is better placed in Malatipur, which had witnessed an anti-CAA, anti-NRC stir in 2019.
BJP is better placed at Gazole though the recent desertions are an advantage for TMC. The BJP is ahead in the race in Habibpur because of its support base among the Adivasis, though a section gathered at chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s recent meeting.
BJP has an edge over Trinamool in Dakshin Dinajpur’s Balurghat where the demography is just the reverse. High-profile BJP candidate and economist Ashok Lahiri is contesting from this seat while RSP veteran Biswanath Chowdhury has opted out of the fray. With Chowdhury’s exit from the electoral battle, BJP is banking on a large chunk of RSP voters who might go with it.
BJP seniors have been frequenting the nine assembly seats in Paschim Burdwan to consolidate its new-found support in the erstwhile Left bastion. Eyes are also fixed on the Pandaveswar assembly seat from where former Asansol mayor and outgoing MLA Jitendra Tiwari, who dumped Trinamool to join BJP, is contesting. Left Front chairman Biman Bose walked the extra mile for JNUSU president and CPM candidate Aishe Ghosh to win back the Left support the party once enjoyed in this belt.