Govt projects drop to 41k active cases, 3,208 surplus beds in dist by May 16

Nagpur: Considering the declining trend in Covid-19 positive cases over last one week, the state government has projected active positive cases in the district will drop from existing 64,597 to 40,919, leaving 3,208 surplus beds in hospitals by May 16. As per government data, weekly growth rate and test positivity rate (TPR) of the district are also on decline.All these parameters indicate April was the peak of second wave and cases will continue to drop further in May.
It is probably for the first time the government has given projection of decline in cases and surplus beds in the district. In its latest projection sent to Nagpur Municipal Corporation (NMC) and district administration a day ago, the government said the district will have 1,353 surplus beds with oxygen supply, 1,496 in ICU and 359 beds with ventilators for a total of 3,208 surplus beds in hospitals as per projections for May 16.
The government has also projected deficit of 6,871 beds in Covid Care Centres (CCC) whereas scenario in the district is totally different. Less than 1% of total active positive patients are in CCCs since the beginning of second wave, and many CCCs are yet to be brought into use citing patients preferring home isolation. Around 80% patients are in home isolation.
On April 21, the government had projected steep rise in active cases to 1,23,680 by May 2. In reality, there were 74,127 active cases on May 2 as district started to see decline in cases from April 30.
With decline in weekly growth rate and TPR to some extent, the government revised projection of active cases to 1,13,093 by May 11.
The district witnessed consistent decline in cases from April 30 to May 4. From 7,496 cases on April 29, cases came down to 4,182 on May 4. The cases slightly increased to 4,399 on May 5 and 4,900 on May 6.
With reduction in active cases, government and private hospitals have started to see vacant beds after more than a month. In the evening on Thursday, 1,225 beds were vacant, 1,112 with oxygen supply, 112 in ICU and one with ventilator.
As per state data, weekly growth rate of the district was 1.54 as on May 4 whereas it was 2.03 on April 27 and 2.24 on April 19.
Similarly, weekly TPR of the district is also on decline. Weekly TPR was 35.02% on April 19 and dropped to 32.65% on April 27 and further to 29.03% on May 4.
Infectious diseases specialist Dr Nitin Shinde told TOI, “There is all possibility of steep fall in number of cases in next two weeks in the district. I used to get over 90 patients in OPD on daily basis, of which around 20 required admission. For last couple of days, I am seeing only 40 patients in OPD, of which just two need hospitalization.”
As per state’s projection, active cases will also come down in Yavatmal from 6,786 on Thursday to 3,173 by May 16, Bhandara 8,571 to 6,209 and Chandrapur 26,842 to 26,124 in Vidarbha.
The government had projected increase in active cases in seven districts; Amravati district 8,638 on Thursday to 9,337 by May 16, Akola 4,838 to 5,489, Washim 3,981 to 4,777, Buldhana 14,809 to 21,415, Wardha 7,123 to 12,408, Gondia 4,991 to 7,418 and Gadchiroli 3,884 to 7,232.
STANDINGS OF VID DISTRICTS IN STATE
* Nagpur district second after Pune among 35 districts in highest active cases with 64,554 active cases on May 4, which was 10.06% of state’s active cases. Chandrapur district on 6th place with 28,597 (4.45%) cases
* Nagpur district (3,85,412) second after Mumbai in highest number of tests per million population, Bhandara (2,52,842) at 5th, Wardha (2,16,817) on 6th and Gondia (1,81,606) on 10th
* Buldhana district (2.83) second after Ratnagiri in highest weekly growth rate, Yavatmal (2.48) on 6th, Gadchiroli (2.39) on 7th, Wardha (2.3) on 8th and Chandrapur (2.16) on 9th
* Buldhana district (39.25%) second after Palghar in highest weekly TPR and Wardha (29.97) on 8th and Nagpur (29.03%) on 11th
* None of 11 districts of Vidarbha in red mark in highest case fatality rate