Saturday’s UFC 262 will be held at a packed Toyota Center in Houston. In interviews this week, many of the competitors voiced excitement to once again be fighting in front of fans.
The main event is the lightweight championship bout between Charles Oliveira (-140 at BetMGM) and Michael Chandler (+115). What’s most interesting about this fight is that it’s the third-ranked Oliveira facing fourth-ranked Chandler as opposed to No. 1-ranked Dustin Poirier facing second-ranked Justin Gaethje.
Poirier chose to overlook a title bout with Gaethje in order to make the Conor McGregor trilogy payday, which helps clarify why Oliveira is in the fight, but how Chandler got in ahead of Gaethje seems unjust.
Chandler arrives fresh off his drubbing of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut. What has not been publicized much is the strict quarantine Hooker had to endure before and after the fight. Further, his decision not to pressure Chandler assured his doom as Chandler is one tough fighter to beat if allowed to pressure and back opponents up.
Chandler’s base is world-class Division I college wrestling, so he’s an unrelenting forward-pressure fighter who over the course of his 27 professional fights has learned how to complement his wrestling with power striking as we witnessed against Hooker.
Chandler, previously a Bellator fighter, was magnificent in that bout. But I believe there’s a healthy dose of recency flavoring this betting line based on that result. That said, Chandler’s pressure wrestling, his explosive athleticism and his natural striking power make him a serious threat, especially early in this bout.
Oliveira is younger by four years. He’s two inches taller than Chandler and will sport arm and leg reach advantages of three inches each. Oliveira’s fight foundation is his third-degree black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Like Chandler, Oliveira is most dangerous when pressing opponents backward and inflicting damage upon them.
Not only can Oliveira compete with Chandler on the mat, he can compete there with anyone at 155 pounds. Oliveira’s striking has improved dramatically over his career as well as his ability to slip strikes and defend. The high level of world-class opponents he has faced forces me to believe this fight will be one of the top competitions this year in the UFC.
Oliveira has lived in Houston since his arrival into the U.S., so support from the local crowd will be vigorous. He opened -150, and Chandler action has dropped the price. It’s Oliveira -140 at BetMGM and lower at several other sportsbooks, which offers opportunity as I regard him as more of a favorite than the opening line did.
Oliveira must navigate the first five minutes of the Chandler firestorm as Chandler has finished opponents 17 times in his career, with 13 coming in the first round.
Provided Oliveira can compete into the second round and beyond, I believe his confidence will grow as will his ability to walk Chandler backward. In the later rounds Chandler’s effectiveness explosion and effectiveness will wane, and Oliveira’s offensive diversity coupled with his physical size and length will begin to take over.