After Fani & Amphan, Odisha braces for third cyclone in three years

BHUBANESWAR: Cyclone Yaas, predicted to cross the north Odisha-West Bengal coasts between Paradip and Sagar islands around Wednesday noon as a very severe cyclonic storm, will be the third cyclone in the Bay of Bengal hitting the East coast in the month of May in three years.
The state government has made massive preparations to ensure zero casualty amid predictions that North Odisha districts of Balasore, Bhadrak, Mayurbhanj, Jagatsinghpur and Kendrapada may be severely hit.
Before this Fani had devastated large parts of coastal Odisha, severely battering religious capital Puri and state capital Bhubaneswar, after making landfall near Puri on May 3, 2019. This was followed by Amphan that left a trail of destruction in northern Odisha and caused massive damage in Kolkata crossing West Bengal coast on May 20, 2020. Both Fani and Amphan were extremely severe cyclones. This time Odisha anticipates very severe cyclonic storm with sustained wind speed of 120 to 165 km per hour, gusting to 180 km, heavy rain of 300 mm and storm surge of 3 to 4.5 metres.
When Fani hit Odisha, it was then termed as one of the rarest of rare summer cyclones, the first one in 43 years to hit Odisha and one of the three to hit the state in the last 150 years with a wind velocity of over 200 km/hour. However, summer cyclones have become routine after that for the ensuing three years.
U C Mohanty, a professor at School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT Bhubaneswar, who has done extensive research on tropical cyclones, said the three May cyclones in three years may be mere coincidence. However, increase in severity of recent cyclones seems to be due to global warming.
The Bay of Bengal has witnessed around 15 to 20 cyclones in May in the last 120 years. “The total number of cyclones in the Bay is not significantly increasing. However, the severity of cyclone is increasing,” he said.
Mohanty said there are two cyclone seasons in the Bay of Bengal: April-May-June and October-November-December. Most of the cyclones take place in October followed by May. The Bay of Bengal is generally warmer in May.
The IIT professor said the cyclones are becoming more ferocious because global warming is contributing to the moisture content in the atmosphere, which is the energy source for any cyclone. Oceans are relatively warmer, contributing to more evaporation. Similarly, moisture holding capacity of atmosphere is rising due to warming, making the tropical cyclones more intense, he said. Sarat Chandra Sahu, director of the Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC), SOA University, who is also a former director of IMD Bhubaneswar, said summer cyclones have now become common both in the Arabian Sea and West Bengal because of global warming due to climate change. The sea surface temperature needs to be minimum 26.5°C for cyclones to form, besides other factors. The temperature is now around 30°C to 31°C.
“The warm sea surface is helping transfer of vapour and heat from the warm sea to overlying air for cyclone formation. Low pressures are more often turning to cyclones due to favourable conditions,” Sahu said.
Special relief commissioner (SRC) Pradeep Jena said Odisha has made preparations for possible landfall in the state considering forecast by weather channels and technical inputs from IMD. “Extensive preparations have been made for evacuation of people from low-lying pockets, storm surge areas and vulnerable households,” he said.