Students face increased competition for university places amid steep rise in applications

Students applying to start university in September face increased competition for places amid a steep rise in applications, experts have warned.

Universities in Wales have seen a 17% rise in applications to start courses in September this year but commentators have warned that’s not all good news for institutions or students.

Several factors have combined to make it a bumper year for university applications after four years of falling applications to institutions in Wales before the pandemic.

This means it will be tougher to secure places and/or that institutions may be over crowded, think tank the Higher Education Policy Institute warned.

The most elite universities, such as Oxford, have already stated they have made fewer offers this year

Universities said they are unable to confirm places with provisional grades for students in Wales out in June, but some said students could get in touch then if they were worried about their results or place.

Data from university admissions service UCAS shows applications to Welsh institutions have risen 17%. A total of 37.2% of 18-year-olds living in Wales have applied to university here or elsewhere, compared with 43.2% of 18 year-olds in England.

Covid has played a part in the rise in applications, but birth rate changes have also seen an increase in the number of 18-year-olds across the UK this year.

That, coupled with more people meeting their university offers than usual last summer, and increased demand to go on to higher education, has created a perfect storm.

Universities in Wales confirmed their individual applications are up but they expect to have places to offer in clearing after results days. They assured applicants they will be “flexible” about offers and grades with exams cancelled again.

Worries are brewing among admissions tutors about this year’s results and possible appeals over the way teacher assessed grades will work, warned Nick Hillman, director of think tank the Higher Education Policy Institute.

“The likely coming appeals mess is another factor that will make life very hard for universities,” he said.

Asked if it will be harder for people to meet and secure offers this year he added: “In short, yes. It depends on lots of things, like how easily any institution can expand, how much demand they face and how much they recruited last year, but it is likely that some institutions will make fewer offers this year.

“The most selective institutions across the UK, such as Oxford, have already made this clear in public. It might feel harsh but it is very hard for universities to plan at the moment.

“They do not know what this year’s school-leaving results will be like – will there be more grade inflation? – and there are more 18-year olds than last year due to the birth-rate changing in the past. While most universities would be happy to grow, if they grow too quickly, then the student experience takes a nosedive.”

Mark Corver, founder of dataHE and former director of analysis and research at UCAS has warned the rise in applications is likely to continue and there is now "a pressing need for new investment" in universities. Otherwise, he warned, there could be insufficient supply of capacity through the 2020s for today's primary school children.

WalesOnline asked all eight universities in Wales for comment on what students and prospective students can expect. These are the replies from those which responded.

Swansea University

Swansea University said it had seen a rise in applications including from international students at graduate and post graduate level.

A spokesperson said: “It is more competitive this year, but Swansea University expects to have places available in clearing on most courses. If you are worried about your offer from Swansea University, please get in touch.

“Applications to Swansea University have risen this year, but we have been preparing for this and have enough places and accommodation for our expected number of new students. We also expect to be able to offer places to study through clearing in August.

“We haven’t changed entry requirements due to the pandemic/rise in applications.

“For undergraduate courses, we have a guaranteed offer scheme, which means that everyone who applies will receive an offer (some course exceptions apply). We are always flexible with offers, so please get in touch if you feel that you will have difficulty in meeting the terms of your offer.”

How are you dealing with centre determined grades and will this affect offers?

"We are dealing with CDGs in the same way we would deal with grades that you would have achieved by sitting formal exams.

"We will receive grades in the summer (10 August for A Levels) and be able to confirm if applicants have met the terms of their offers.

"If someone has missed your offer by a small margin, they may still get a place on their chosen course, or we may offer a place on an alternative course.

Can you confirm with provisional grades in Wales due out in June?

"No, we are unable to confirm places with provisional grades in June, but we will be able to discuss your grades with applicants. If they are at all worried about their grades or place, they should please get in touch."

Aberystwyth University

"We recognise that many prospective students will have concerns about how their grades are determined given the disruption of the pandemic this year," a spokesperson said.

"Any applicants who are worried about this will be invited to contact us, so we can support and advise them about their options.

"The Higher Education Funding Council Wales has been clear that universities in Wales should not confirm places on the basis of provisional grades. However, once the final grades of our applicants are confirmed, we will continue to confirm places to all students who attain the offer level we have made to them.

"We are very pleased about the strong growth in applications from prospective students who want to study with us in Aberystwyth this September."

University of South Wales

"As the UCAS figures show, applications have increased this year across the sector, including at USW," a spokesperson said.

"All current applicants who hold an offer will have a place on their chosen course if they meet the application criteria in place.

"We also hope to have spaces available through clearing for a number of courses, so it’s not too late to apply for a course to start this September."

Wrexham Glyndwr University

"No changes have been made to our entry requirements, although we are always as flexible as possible to our applicants when results are released, and this has continued throughout the pandemic," a spokesperson said.

"We have seen no noticeable increase in deferrals during the last year.

"With regards to centre determined grades and the affect this may have on any offers, we are not dealing with them any differently to the way we would with official grades in a cycle where exams are taken.

"Places will only be confirmed once results are officially released. Deferrals have not increased in the last year, so there are no fewer places this year as a result.

"With reference to the 17 per cent increase in university applications across Wales this year, we can confirm that applications to Wrexham Glyndwr have risen roughly in line with that after the UCAS equal consideration deadline."

University of Wales Trinity St David

Entry requirements have not been changed as a result of the pandemic and securing a place has not become more competitive than in previous years.

The university considers a number of factors in our admissions process, including students’ past academic achievements, their wider experiences as well as their future potential.

An applicant’s achievement will be considered holistically and the current context will be taken into account. The university believes that anyone who is able to benefit from studying a higher education qualification should be given the opportunity to do so.

The university has seen a rise in the number of applications and would encourage anyone still considering applying to get in touch.

We are holding in person visit days to our Lampeter campus and we hope to extend this across our campuses in due course.

We are planning to welcome students to the campuses and to deliver face-to-face teaching in September. However, we are working to several possible scenarios should Welsh Government guidelines change in the context of Covid.

What will university look like next term? What about Covid restrictions on campus ?

A number of universities, including Cardiff University, have said they will not hold in-person large lectures next term, but tutorials and seminars are expected to be held face to face.

Universities said they are planning for different scenarios and Covid restrictions will depend on Welsh Government advice, which they must follow.

What about the university cuts?

Before the pandemic a number of university in Wales had made, or faced, cuts with an estimated combined deficit of £70m.

Last April the Office for Budget Responsibility said education would be the sector hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, with the impact likely to be felt most by universities.

But the full economic and practical impact of the pandemic is not yet fully clear.

While there has been a rise in applications and some institutions may have made certain savings, pressures remain. There is concern in some quarters about numbers of international students depending on the situation with the coronavirus pandemic.

In August a £27 million Higher Education Investment and Recovery (HEIR) fund was created to help universities to maintain capacity, and help economic recovery and the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic in Wales.

Each of the eight Welsh universities submitted bids for money from the fund.

Of the total £27m awarded, £21.6m was paid in December 2020 and the remaining £5.4m in February 2021.

But Higher Education Policy Institute Director Nick Hillman warned universities are “nothing like out of the woods yet”.

He said they must ensure they remain attractive to students with issues such as pandemic restrictions still a hot topic.

“There is clear appetite among students for more face to face learning.

“Learning is ultimately a social endeavour, especially when you are young. So any university that forgets that or fails to offer anything like what they have promised may come to regret it as their complaints and drop-out rates will go up and their student satisfaction and other positive metrics will go down.

“Universities have been able to cut their cloth during the crisis, as many budget lines (staff travel, say) have fallen drastically in the crisis and things like recruitment freezes have been put in place.

“The dire predictions of a dozen universities (UK-wide) falling over have, thankfully, turned out to be false. But we are nothing like out of the woods yet.

“After Covid, people will look to universities to play an even bigger role in their local communities and policy makers will want them to do more with less. So far, staff have worked their socks off to keep the show on the road but there is only so much they can reasonably be asked to do.”