Why Delhi will see an early monsoon this year

When is monsoon expected to arrive in Delhi and northwest India?

In Delhi the expected arrival date of monsoon this time is around June 15, as per the IMD, and it should cover the entire country in the next 2-3 days, except south Rajasthan and Kutch region of Gujarat.

The southwest monsoon is likely to advance on Saturday to some more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Chattisgarh and Odisha, entire West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, some parts of east Uttar Pradesh and remaining parts of north Bay of Bengal.

Why has the arrival date been advanced?

The normal onset date of monsoon in Delhi is June 27, however, this time it is likely to arrive about two weeks early due to a number of meteorological factors.

These factors include a low pressure area and cyclonic circulation over northwest Bay of Bengal, an east-west trough running from south Punjab to centre of low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal, strong south-westerly winds along the west coast and an off-shore trough off the west coast.

IMD officials said these conditions are making it conducive for the monsoon to advance rapidly.

What is the monsoon forecast in northwest India this year?

According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to September over the country is likely to be normal as a whole — which means the country will receive rainfall that is 96% to 104% of the long period average (LPA).

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is 88cm from the period 1961-2010.

Over northwest India, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is also forecast to be normal — that is, 92% to 108% of the LPA. Rainfall is likely to be above normal over central India (>106%).

What time does monsoon usually reach Delhi and what has the arrival date been over the past 5 years?

Prior to 2020, the normal onset date of monsoon in Delhi was June 29. It was revised to June 27 last year, although it arrived in the city on June 25 that year.

In 2019, it arrived in the capital on July 5, after being delayed due to Cyclone Vayu and other factors. In 2018, the monsoon arrived on June 28. In 2017 it arrived by July 2 and in 2016 by July 1.