‘Australia needs a plan’: How other countries are emerging from COVID

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‘Australia needs a plan’: How other countries are emerging from COVID

By Michael Koziol

Australia and South Korea have shared similar approaches to the pandemic. Both countries have kept deaths to a minimum; 900 people in Australia, nearly 2000 in a South Korean population about twice the size of Australia’s. Seoul also closed borders, enforced quarantine and had a lethargic start to its vaccination rollout.

In the nation of about 52 million, 24 per cent have had at least one dose and 6 per cent are fully vaccinated – slightly but not massively ahead of Australia. But that level of vaccine coverage has been enough for authorities to embark on some significant changes.

South Korea will relax its rules from July 1 so that many people vaccinated outside the country won’t need to quarantine.

South Korea will relax its rules from July 1 so that many people vaccinated outside the country won’t need to quarantine.

Since May 5, Koreans have been able to re-enter their country without quarantining if they were fully vaccinated in South Korea. From July 1 that privilege will extend to certain travellers to South Korea if they have been fully vaccinated overseas, including Korean citizens, people visiting family, or travelling for business, academic or public interest purposes.

The government has also increased the capacity of sports stadiums to between 30 and 50 per cent, and up to 4000 people can now attend K-pop concerts, Reuters reported, despite the country still recording about 400 new cases a day on average.

Around the world, discussions are under way and policies are changing as countries enter a new phase of the pandemic depending on their vaccination coverage. This includes a shift away from border closures or lockdowns in favour of coercive measures and incentives for people to get vaccinated, as well as loosening quarantine arrangements for those who’ve had the jab.

CANADA

  • At least one dose: 65 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 14 per cent
  • Three days hotel quarantine for arrivals, then home isolation for the remainder of 14 days
  • From next month fully vaccinated Canadians will be exempt from quarantine
  • Expert panel recommended early release from quarantine after a day 7 test
  • Land border with the US remains closed but is expected to reopen soon

Australia, however, has essentially left its settings unchanged and has not outlined any plan to modify them. Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he is in “no hurry” to allow citizens to leave the country, and little debate has taken place about exempting vaccinated travellers from quarantine.

Australia has remained glued to its hotel quarantine system despite using home isolation for close contacts.

Australia has remained glued to its hotel quarantine system despite using home isolation for close contacts.Credit: Jason South

Morrison has alluded to the long-term problems of our obsession with zero cases, but no serious attempt has been made to prepare the community for allowing COVID-19 to circulate within a majority-vaccinated population.

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And while Australia was accurately described as the “envy of the world” for much of the pandemic, the picture is looking less rosy for millions of Australians who can’t visit or welcome family from overseas, huge numbers of whom are now vaccinated.

SOUTH KOREA

  • At least one dose: 24 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 6.3 per cent
  • Koreans can re-enter their country without quarantining if they were fully vaccinated in South Korea
  • From July 1 certain other travellers can skip quarantine if they are fully vaccinated and test negative
  • Stadiums back to 30-50 per cent capacity; 4000 people at K-pop concerts

Last month the Open Society and Common Purpose taskforce, an initiative of the University of Sydney, released a report called A Roadmap to Reopening which laid out principles and steps for Australia to re-engage with the world. Taskforce chairman Mark Rigotti, a partner at law firm Herbert Smith Freehills, says despite our success in suppressing the virus – which is almost entirely due to closing the border – we are falling behind in the next phase.

“When you look outside our borders, our gold medal podium position doesn’t seem so secure,” Rigotti says. “We’re on the podium for closing down –but where are we for opening up?”

The only substantial change to quarantine arrangements talked about in Australia – mostly by federal Labor – is the construction of fit-for-purpose quarantine facilities. The Victorian Labor government and the Commonwealth have agreed to fund one such site near Melbourne.

But the rest of the world is moving to less quarantine, not more. In South Korea, if you have a home to go to, you can isolate there. It’s only if you test positive that you’re taken into a government-run facility. In Japan you must isolate at home or other accommodation for 14 days and sign a “written pledge” not to use public transport during that period.

SINGAPORE

  • At least one dose: 47 per cent 
  • Fully vaccinated: 35 per cent
  • Extended mandatory hotel quarantine stay to 21 days except for selected countries including Australia
  • A number of “green lanes” for travel are suspended, including Germany, Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan
  • Children aged 12 and over can register for vaccination; gyms reopening on Monday

In France, some visitors –including Australians – no longer have to even take a COVID test as long as they are fully vaccinated with an EU-approved vaccine. Fully vaccinated travellers from Britain and the US still have to provide a negative test but no longer need a compelling reason to enter.

Canada is also moving away from mandatory quarantine. Incoming passengers must spend the first three days of their 14-day isolation in a hotel. If you test negative, you can do the remainder at home or somewhere else, but your quarantine plan must be approved in advance.

But from early July it is expected that fully vaccinated travellers, including non-Canadians, will be exempt from quarantine as long as they take a test on arrival and isolate until they receive a negative result, which could be less than one day.

ISRAEL

  • At least one dose: 61 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 57 per cent
  • Israel had one of the fastest vaccination programs in the world, though children have only recently become eligible
  • “Green pass” system allowing vaccinated adults to visit restaurants, events and cultural activities has now been retired
  • Mandatory 14-day isolation which can be shortened to 10 days after two negative tests

Canadian authorities set loose requirements for easing those restrictions: about 75 per cent of the population having one jab, and 20 per cent being fully vaccinated. The country is now very close to those goals.

Late last month, an expert group set up by the Canadian government, the COVID-19 Testing and Screening Expert Advisory Panel, recommended abandoning the three days of mandatory hotel quarantine and significantly loosening the arrangements.

The panel said vaccinated travellers should only have to take a test on arrival “for surveillance purposes”, while those who aren’t vaccinated would go into self-isolation but be permitted to leave if their day-seven test was negative. The panel’s 11 members all have expertise in epidemiology, virology, data analytics and other health fields.

NEW ZEALAND

  • At least one dose: 12 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 6.6 per cent
  • Two weeks’ managed isolation or quarantine for all arrivals in hotels
  • New Zealanders can leave and return: outbound travel is discouraged but not banned
  • Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has indicated borders to remain mostly shut through 2021
  • NZ has largely remained at the top of Bloomberg’s monthly COVID Resilience Index
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Australia’s discussions don’t even come close to canvassing those options, and our reluctance to modify our policies has been noted overseas, including by Beth Potter, the chief executive of the Tourism Industry Association of Canada.

“We always keep an eye on what’s going on in Australia,” she says. “I’m kind of surprised that the tourism industry isn’t chomping at the bit to get the restrictions relaxed at the borders a bit. Here in Canada that’s all we can talk about.”

Infectious diseases professor Greg Dore, of the University of NSW Kirby Institute, says quarantining at home should be the default option for vaccinated returning travellers who are coming from low or moderate risk countries (including the US and Britain) and have tested negative prior to departure.

It could also be shorter than 14 days; people could do a DIY nasal swab after a few days rather than calling in health workers for a PCR test.

“We’ve got to move along this pathway to opening up,” Dore says. “Here’s a way to do it that’s incredibly low-risk, it’s sensible, it makes epidemiological sense, it’s good on the human rights side and it’s good on the mental health side.”

GERMANY

  • At least one dose: 49 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 27 per cent
  • Ban on arrivals from countries with a high caseload of COVID variants; German citizens and residents exempt
  • 10 days self-isolation at home for people from risky areas; 14 days if they’ve been in an area with a variant of concern
  • 15,000 rapid testing stands around the country give immediate test results
  • CovPass digital certificate now in place, replacing paper system

Dore points out that we have used home isolation throughout the pandemic for anyone who gets COVID-19 in Australia, is a close contact or has been to an exposure site, and the vast majority of people have complied.

He is lukewarm on the prospect of purpose-built quarantine facilities. “I don’t have a problem with putting in some investment, but it’s going to take several months,” he says. “I hope we’re in a place early next year where we don’t need to quarantine people.”

Australia has also resisted programs to drive up the vaccination rate based on reward or coercion. It was only this month the Therapeutic Goods Administration changed the regulations around advertising to allow businesses to offer cash or vouchers for staff or customers to get vaccinated.

So proscriptive were the TGA’s previous rules that some companies were concerned they couldn’t even give staff a day’s paid leave to get the jab, or a cab ride to the vaccination centre, because it might constitute an incentive.

ENGLAND

  • At least one dose: 63 per cent
  • Fully vaccinated: 45 per cent
  • No quarantine for green list countries, including Australia, day 2 test required
  • 10-day self-isolation for amber list countries, with tests on day 2 and 8
  • 10-day hotel quarantine for red list countries (only citizens and residents permitted)
  • Portugal – a popular holiday destination for Brits – was on the green list until June 8

Compare that to other places such as the US, where Krispy Kreme has given away more than 1.5 million donuts to vaccinated customers, and several states are running vaccine lotteries. The Maryland lottery is giving away $US40,000 a day for 40 days to people who have had the jab.

In Hong Kong, developer Sino Land is giving away a $US1.4 million 42sqm apartment, the Airport Authority has put up 60,000 free flights and politician Regina Ip is offering a diamond-studded Rolex (though only to members and friends of her political party).

The situation is starting to change. Qantas chief Alan Joyce has said the airline will hand out 10 prizes of a year of unlimited economy flights to anyone who is vaccinated, and Uber will deliver four free rides to and from vaccination appointments for 2500 Australians living with disability. The Business Council expects more Australian companies to make similar offers.

A political debate is also brewing about more coercive measures to lift vaccine uptake. In January, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said it was plausible, down the track, that some high-risk venues such as pubs or restaurants might require proof of vaccination for entry. The federal government theoretically enabled this by making digital vaccine certificates easily accessible as part of your Medicare records.

Like many Eurozone nations, Germany suffered a third wave of COVID-19 this year and has now recorded 90,000 deaths since the start of the pandemic. It has a rolling average of about 1500 new cases a day in a population of about 83 million; nearly half of all Germans have had at least one vaccine dose and 26 per cent are fully vaccinated.

While rules differ between states, in the capital Berlin people can dine outdoors at cafes and restaurants and participate in social or commercial activities, providing they demonstrate they have been fully vaccinated or received a negative test result within the past 24 hours. It was previously based on a paper system, but last week Germany began rolling out a digital certificate, CovPass.

The country has also set up a world-leading Schnelltest (rapid test) regime. The results arrive in as little as 10 to 15 minutes, Germans are entitled to at least one free rapid test a week and the test sites are everywhere; 15,000 nationwide and 1300 in Berlin alone, The New York Times reported.

ACTU secretary Sally McManus is among those wondering why Australia has not rolled out rapid antigen testing as part of its COVID arsenal. “Asking ppl who have been at exposure sites to line up for hours will mean many won’t,” she tweeted on Thursday. “These kits were developed in Australia – yet the Fed Govt did not secure them. Forward planning to ‘live with the virus’ lacking!”

The most well-known vaccine certificate was Israel’s “green pass”, which was mandatory to enter restaurants, events and cultural activities in the country of 9 million. After three months, Israel has now retired the pass, saying it had been very successful but was no longer required due to very high levels of vaccination and very low case numbers.

In Australia, however, there has been no effort or plan to use our vaccine certificates even for basic purposes such as crossing state borders during outbreaks, and Morrison has washed his hands of the issue, saying it’s up to the premiers.

Former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull says “we have to be tough about this” and it would be reasonable to insist upon proof of vaccination for a whole range of activities, including working in aged care, getting on a plane or even going to the cinema.

But conservative political groups are organising against any attempt to use vaccine certificates to limit activity. A recent mailout from right-wing lobby group Advance Australia said it “stinks of totalitarianism” and would create two classes of citizen. LNP senator Matt Canavan has called vaccine passports unnecessary and un-Australian.

But for Mark Rigotti, the Open Society and Common Purpose taskforce chair, such passports are a route to reopening that we should harness, or at least debate.

“Let’s have a plan,” he says. “You can argue about what elements are in the plan and which are not, but we should be having a more comprehensive plan rather than a week-by-week reactive strategy. You can look overseas to find what is working and what might not be working. Not everything will work, but at least have a plan.”

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