Covid growth at 0% in Nagpur, Bhandara, Gondia

NAGPUR: The growth rate of Covid cases is down to zero in Nagpur, Bhandara, and Gondia districts of Vidarbha while all other districts in the region have less than 0.05% as per the latest comparative data released by the department of public health, Maharashtra. The updated information is up to July 13.
The weekly growth rate measures the percentage change in the number of new confirmed cases over the last seven days relative to the number in the previous seven days.In Nagpur, Bhandara and Gondia, it was zero on July 13. Gadchiroli had the highest, 0.05% growth rate, in Vidarbha while all the other districts have less than that. The state average growth rate is 0.14% and all Vidarbha districts have less than half of this average which makes them eligible for further relaxations. Kolhapur has the highest (0.86% growth rate).

As per the WHO standards, restrictions and lockdown measures are advisable only if the growth rate is above 1%. The second important parameter is the test positivity rate.
TPR is the percentage of positive results out of total samples tested in a week. The formula used is to divide the number of positive tests (numerator) by the total number of tests done (denominator) and multiply this result by 100.
At present, Bhandara, Gondia and Nagpur have the lowest TPR in Vidarbha. Gadchiroli, once again has the highest, nearly 3% test positivity in Vidarbha. But, this is quite less compared to the state’s 4.36%. The current scenario in Vidarbha has set the stage for further relaxations in restrictions.
As per WHO, if TPR is under 5%, infection is well under control. Third parameter is under-treatment patients as compared to the number of highest patients in the first wave. All the 11 districts in Vidarbha have at least 75% less patients under treatment at present as compared to the highest number of patients in the second wave.
Yavatmal has more than 99% less number of under-treatment patients as compared to the first wave while Nagpur also has a nearly 90% decrease in the number of new cases. Amravati, Akola, Chandrapur also have more than 90% less patients under treatment as compared to the peak of the first wave. This indicates that hospitalization has gone down significantly. Secondly, all districts have ramped up medical facilities as compared to the first wave. So, more than 90% of the hospital beds are presently unoccupied in the region.
As per the state’s own old guidelines, if 75% beds are vacant, such districts may go for full unlock.
With near-zero growth of cases, under control test positivity rate and a huge percentage of hospital beds unoccupied for more than threee weeks at a stretch, technically, Vidarbha qualifies for a full unlock by all international parameters and guidelines.