Mutually contrasting weather is set to descend over the North as well as the South of the country, with a monsoon-driving trough over the plains of North-West India preparing to retreat to the Himalayan foothills, while a fresh spell of rain breaks out over Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the South.

With drier climes expected over North-West and Central India for the next few days, the rain deficit for the country as a whole is likely to go up from the current -4 per cent. Scanty rain was reported on Monday from Central and Peninsular India, though some change is expected from today (Tuesday).

Fresh rain for Kerala, TN

Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the next five days, interspersed with isolated heavy falls over both the southern states. Subdued rainfall is forecast for Punjab, Haryana, West Rajasthan and most of Peninsular India, including Maharashtra and Gujarat.

The eastern end of the monsoon trough has already reached the foothills, confining the rains to that region, while the western end has started moving to the North with some delay. The entire trough may shift to the foothills by tomorrow (Wednesday), to ring in a weak monsoon elsewhere from today.

A cyclonic circulation lies over East Uttar Pradesh, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said this morning. It will bring fairly widespread to widespread rainfall, with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over North-East India, the plains of West Bengal and Sikkim during the next five days.

Monsoon busy to the East

The prevailing south-westerly/southerly winds from the Bay of Bengal are expected to become stronger from Wednesday, and will also cause the rainfall intensity to increase over these areas, resulting in isolated extremely heavy falls over Assam and Meghalaya until Friday, the IMD added.

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely over Uttarakhand during the next five days and over Himachal Pradesh on Thursday and Friday. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls are forecast over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand during the next 4-5 days, and isolated heavy falls over Jharkhand and the plains of West Bengal until Friday.

Skymet warns of floods in East

Private forecaster Skymet Weather said that East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, North-West Madhya Pradesh, North Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha may receive moderate rain, with a few heavy spells in the coming days. The last 24 hours ending Tuesday morning saw heavy rain over Supaul, Gaya, Patna, Ghazipur, Sidhi, Ambikapur, Baripada and Daltonganj.

A few good spells are also possible over the northern parts of Odisha, Northeast Madhya Pradesh and North Chhattisgarh during the next three to four days, Skymet Weather said in its outlook. It also warned about a likely flood-like situation or flash floods emerging in the eastern parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Meanwhile, the Central Water Commission said a number of rivers in East India continue to witness a severe flood situation. These rivers flow through Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar and Assam, with Bihar being the worst hit currently.

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