IMD predicts fresh rain spell over Peninsular India from next week

Subdued rainfall conditions may prevail over the plains of northwest India (Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan), adjoining central India and most parts of Peninsular India (outside Tamil Nadu and Kerala), including Maharashtra and Gujarat, till August 15 (Sunday).

But India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects an increase in rainfall over Peninsular India from the very next day from peaking of activity over East India that spills over to the East Coast (in a West-South-West direction) replete with a rain head emerging from the Bay of Bengal.

Open highway laid out

An open highway for this emerging wet weather to run down the eastern seaboard has been laid out in the form of a trough that connects a prevailing cyclonic circulation over Bihar and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh with North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, across Jharkhand and Interior Odisha.

Under its influence, the ongoing spell of fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls may continue over North-East India, plains of West Bengal and Sikkim until Saturday. Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Assam and Meghalaya today (Thursday) and Friday.

Widespread rain for Tamil Nadu

Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls are likely to continue over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and the plains of West Bengal until Saturday, while it will be isolated very heavy over Bihar today (Thursday).

Scattered to widespread rainfall has been forecast over Tamil Nadu and Kerala for the next 4-5 days with isolated heavy falls over Tamil Nadu until Saturday and over Kerala for today (Thursday).

Intense clouds were spotted on Thursday morning over Karaikudi, Dindigul, Tiruchirappalli, Namakkal and Erode in Tamil Nadu as well as over Puducherry, while less intense over Kerala.

Intense rain clouds

These clouds drifted just outside of Chennai in Tamil Nadu to establish a larger footprint over neighbouring South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana across Tirupati, Nellore, Kavali, Proddatur, Anantapur, and Hindupur, satellite pictures on Thursday morning revealed.

An extended forecast for next week (August 17-19) predicted fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over North-East and East India, North Uttar Pradesh and along the West Coast and parts of the South Peninsula. Isolated heavy falls are likely to continue over North-East and East India.

Dry weather for Rajasthan

Isolated to scattered rainfall over the rest of the country except over West Rajasthan, where dry weather is expected to prevail. Enhanced rain is forecast over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh, thanks to the emerging wet spell along the eastern seaboard.

The presence of the eastern end will continue to bring scattered to fairly widespread rain over the hills of North-West India along West Himachal Pradesh during the next 4-5 days. Isolated heavy rain is forecast over Uttarakhand until Sunday and over Himachal Pradesh until Saturday.

Maharashtra dry, says Skymet

Meanwhile, private forecaster Skymet Weather said that Maharashtra witnessed a good monsoon during July. The first 10 days of August have not seen any significant weather activity over the state barring a few locations such as Harnai and Mahabaleshwar.

The Western Ghats witnessed on-and-off showers. Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra may stay dry and only occasional isolated rain occurred over Vidarbha. Between June 1 and August 10, Konkan and Goa received 22 per cent surplus rain, followed by Marathwada at 14 per cent and Madhya Maharashtra at 11 per cent. But Vidarbha is the odd man out with a deficiency of 12 per cent.

Widespread showers were reported over Raigad, Ratnagiri, Sindhudurg, Satara, Sangli and Kolhapur districts during the third and fourth weeks of July. The offshore trough and the low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal have weakened, leading to significant decrease in rain activity.

No fresh low-pressure area

Skymet Weather does not expect any significant weather system developing over the Bay that can accentuate the monsoon over the West Coast including Konkan and Goa. The offshore trough, which is one of the driving factors for enhanced rainfall over Konkan and Goa, too will stay weak.

The weather will remain almost dry, with isolated light rain, over Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra for a week. There may be scattered rain over Vidarbha from August 16. Konkan may also receive on-and-off rain, with light to moderate intensity, during the week.

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