A low-pressure area has formed over North-West and adjoining West-Central Bay of Bengal off the South Odisha-North Andhra Pradesh coasts this (Monday) morning. India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the monsoon-boosting ‘low’ will travel towards the coast over the next four to five days.

This will help the backbone monsoon trough across North-West, Central and East India to stay anchored to its normal position for as many days and oversee the orderly progress of the fresh monsoon pulse. In tandem, a shear zone of monsoon turbulence lies to the south of Mumbai across South Peninsular India.

Widespread rain forecast

The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over Odisha, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh on both Monday and Tuesday and over Marathawada, Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Gujarat until Friday.

Isolated extremely heavy falls are likely over Coastal Andhra Pradesh on Monday; over Telangana and North Konkan on both Monday and Tuesday; over Madhya Maharashtra on Tuesday; and over Gujarat on Wednesday and Thursday as the rain-deficient Gujarat primes itself to witness a meaningful rain spell.

Welcome rains for Gujarat

Rainfall activity may also increase over North-West India as the ‘low’ moves inland with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over most parts with isolated heavy falls over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana and Jammu, most of which are rain-deficient, for four days from Tuesday. Isolated very heavy falls are being forecast for the vulnerable Uttarakhand until Friday and East Rajasthan on Friday.

Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending on Monday morning saw heavy to very heavy rain (in cm) being recorded in the following places even as the ‘low’ was brewing over the past couple of days. The highest rainfall amounts are Vizianagaram-18; Srikakulam-13, Vishakhapatnam-7; Khargone-12; and Sehore-10.

Others include Chamoli-9; Rajsamund, Koraput, Medak, Sangareddy, Beed and Sonamura-8 each; Vaikom, Surat, Ariyalur, Coimbatore, Sitapur, Sagar, Vishakhapatnam, Kothagudem, Chandrapur, Gajapati, Puri and Sindhudurg-7 each spread all across the country.

Skymet Weather outlook

Private forecaster Skymet Weather observed that rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan may have reduced over both States, but the weather has not gone completely dry. On and off light showers have been going on over many parts of Gujarat as well as parts of South and South-East Rajasthan.

The incoming ‘low’ should help scale up the rains over Gujarat and South-East Rajasthan from Monday and Tuesday. There may be heavy rain over South-East and East Rajasthan and Gujarat between Tuesday and Saturday.

Focal districts in Gujarat, Rajasthan

Districts of Kota, Bundi, Jhalawar, Tonk, Baran, Sawai Madhopur, Bhilwara, Udaipur and Chittorgarh of Rajasthan may witness heavy downpour. In Gujarat, those likely slipping under a wet cover are Valsad, Navsari, Dang, Surat, Tapi, Narmada, Bharuch, Chhota Udaipur, Vadodara, Panchmahal, Dahod, Anand, Ahmedabad, Gandhinagar, Kheda, Rajkot, and Bhavnagar may witness moderate to heavy showers.

The private forecaster, however, said that rain over the western districts of Rajasthan as well as Saurashtra and Kutch may be light with one or two moderate spells until Saturday.

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