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Rain deficit for the country as a whole so far during the monsoon (till Wednesday) has shrunk to four per cent from a peak of nine per cent at the end of August, following an active weather phase underwritten by a deep depression and low-pressure areas that originated from the Bay of Bengal from late last week.
Even more rain is forecast for the next few days as a fresh monsoon circulation forms in the Bay soon, and predecessors – a well-marked low-pressure area over land and a cyclonic circulation from an erstwhile low-pressure area – continue to hold sway over North Madhya Pradesh and South Gujarat.
Fresh wet spell to break out
India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday morning that fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh and East Rajasthan today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday).
Isolated extremely heavy falls may lash East Uttar Pradesh today. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is forecast also over North-West India (except Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh). It will be isolated heavy over Haryana today and over West Rajasthan on Friday and Saturday. Isolated very heavy falls are also likely over Uttarakhand and West Uttar Pradesh today.
Cyclonic circulation brewing
A fresh cyclonic circulation brewing in the Bay by Friday will bring the eastern parts of the country under a fresh spell with rains likely scaling up over Odisha and plains of West Bengal with fairly widespread to widespread rainfall and isolated heavy falls on Saturday and Sunday.
An extended outlook for September 21-23 predicted fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over most parts of the country except Saurashtra, Kutch, West Rajasthan and the South Peninsula where it will be isolated to scattered. Isolated heavy rainfall is forecast also over West Madhya Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Gujarat Region, Uttarakhand, Odisha and the adjoining subdivisions during this period.
Rain-deficit areas
The deficit is confined to the meteorological subdivisions of Lakshadweep (-27 per cent) in the South Peninsula; Gujarat Region (-30 per cent) in Central India; Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh (-28 per cent) and West Uttar Pradesh (-23 per cent) in North-West India; and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and (-32 per cent) and Arunachal Pradesh (-21 per cent) in North-East India.
But there are a few Met subdivisions which have been declared ‘normal’ just because their deficits fall below the threshold (-20 per cent) set by the IMD. These are East Madhya Pradesh and Assam and Meghalaya (-19 per cent each); Kerala and Mahe (-17 per cent); Himachal Pradesh (-15 per cent); Punjab (-14 per cent); Odisha (-12 per cent); and Coastal Karnataka (-10 per cent).
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